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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'd guess a good portion of the I5 corridor will see lightning tonight into tomorrow morning. There is a main axis of diffluence that coincides with the best midlevel moisture around 7am in the Seattle area, though some pop up showers do tend to form a tad earlier than expected and further away from the source of best lift.

The coast has a distinct shot at some organized convective banding which Seattle (and especially Portland) does not really have. The instability is there everywhere, some places breaching 1000j/kg, but the killer will be a relative lack of lift.

I do think there will be surprises.

Haven't seen lightning here in a while, hoping that I finally see some! Slightly disappointing that we may not see any organized banding here especially though.

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Watch out Willamette Valley! Some of that better lift is taking advantage of the increasing midlevel moisture at hand. Pop ups starting in the lowlands.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Watch out Willamette Valley! Some of that better lift is taking advantage of the increasing midlevel moisture at hand. Pop ups starting in the lowlands.

Looks like a strong thunderstorm south of Sweet Home and a decent one by Silver Falls

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Just now, Doiinko said:

Looks like a strong thunderstorm south of Sweet Home and a decent one by Silver Falls

Making a pretty sharp left turn now.  Following the flow around the ULL offshore.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Jakewestsalem said:

Yep. Little marine push underway may be the trigger.

I've heard this thrown around before, but I'm not sure if marine pushes can even really be a trigger. They exist at such a shallow portion of the atmosphere and the amount of air they displace vertically is pretty negligible. In reality I think marine pushes just coincide with larger scale upper level disturbances, which actually do cause lift a meaningful scale and at the middle levels of the atmosphere where storms do end up firing off. Upper level disturbances trigger convection, as well as create the pressure gradients at the sfc necessary for marine intrusions; hence the spurious correlation between marine pushes and convection.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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0A946244-530B-450F-9A04-A85386242D3D.png

Hail spike on this cell about to slam into Sweet Home! Gnarly storm.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I've heard this thrown around before, but I'm not sure if marine pushes can even really be a trigger. They exist at such a shallow portion of the atmosphere and the amount of air they displace vertically is pretty negligible. In reality I think marine pushes just coincide with larger scale upper level disturbances, which actually do cause lift a meaningful scale and at the middle levels of the atmosphere where storms do end up firing off. Upper level disturbances trigger convection, as well as create the pressure gradients at the sfc necessary for marine intrusions; hence the spurious correlation between marine pushes and convection.

You may very well be correct, but the column is primed and very little is required to break the cap over the valley.

Whatever the dynamics, I have seen it happen down here many times in my 50 plus years, coincidence or not.

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14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I've heard this thrown around before, but I'm not sure if marine pushes can even really be a trigger. They exist at such a shallow portion of the atmosphere and the amount of air they displace vertically is pretty negligible. In reality I think marine pushes just coincide with larger scale upper level disturbances, which actually do cause lift a meaningful scale and at the middle levels of the atmosphere where storms do end up firing off. Upper level disturbances trigger convection, as well as create the pressure gradients at the sfc necessary for marine intrusions; hence the spurious correlation between marine pushes and convection.

Totally agree... good points.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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68F & partly cloudy. I can see storms forming in the distance and there are broken cumulus forming above us.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Sky looks weeeeird. Almost like an ochre-yellow filter painted over everything rn 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

They need to cut down that tree.  

We were just talking about that with them. They said it’s definitely alive and this is the first year it just never budded anything. That’s what a dirty no good super wet cold spring will get you…dead trees everywhere!!

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