August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

80F and partly cloudy. Nice & normal August days before the endless 90Fs come back.

[TacomaWx]

21 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Didn’t really rain much here but as far as thunder and lightning the best I’ve seen in a long time. 

It was the best since September 2019 here for sure and our first real thunderstorm since 10/13/2020. 

[T-Town]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

It was the best since September 2019 here for sure and our first real thunderstorm since 10/13/2020. 

I was out of town for the 2019 storms so I missed out on that. 

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Jim is predicting a cold snap!

In related news, water is wet and the Pope is Catholic.

It's on the record in a specific time frame.  It's going to flip hard this year.

[snow_wizard]

47 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Are you thinking the cold snap will be on the dry side? I'm thinking September will be wetter and cooler than normal.

I think the significant precip is going to take a while.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

69˚F and mostly cloudy. Nice & normal August days before the endless 80˚F’s come back.

[snow_wizard]

50 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Cool photo. 

How in the hell was there a storm like that so close to me and I had no idea it was happening.  Totally bummed!

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

How in the hell was there a storm like that so close to me and I had no idea it was happening.  Totally bummed!

Lot of people missed out. Tacoma and pierce counties were the only people who really scored big in western WA for the most part. The storms did work north but they weren’t as intense once they moved north of here. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

69˚F and mostly cloudy. Nice & normal August days before the endless 80˚F’s come back.

We haven't had any what I would call endless streaks of 80+.  A lot of cool interludes have thankfully broken things up.  I hope this next one will be the same, but a +5 PNA is being forecast so I'm a bit pessimistic.  On the other hand it's late in the season so we have that going for us now.

[snow_wizard]

Amazingly this August has a shot at topping 1967 for hottest August on record.  We were going into a Nina that year, but this one is well established.  There was certainly no reason to expect this month to end up THIS warm.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We haven't had any what I would call endless streaks of 80+.  A lot of cool interludes have thankfully broken things up.  I hope this next one will be the same, but a +5 PNA is being forecast so I'm a bit pessimistic.  On the other hand it's late in the season so we have that going for us now.

We just had a week long string of 80+ temps here. That's about as many as we used to get in an entire summer.

P.S. Mostly I was just riffing off TWL’s recent post to show how we now have Eugene’s old summers and Eugene has Medford’s.

[snow_wizard]

Any bets on whether the GFS will bust about 8 to 10 degrees high tomorrow?  It's predicting a ridiculous 87.

[HoodCanalBridge]

This made for the most exciting round of golf…. Ever… in Kitsap county 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

We just had a week long string of 80+ temps here. That's about as many as we used to get in an entire summer.

For 80+ we've had some really long ones.  The number of 90+ is the big story this summer.  We have managed to fit some below normal days in between the heat which has helped.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, HoodCanalBridge said:

This made for the most exciting round of golf…. Ever… in Kitsap county 

The EPSL got totally shafted.  I had no idea this was happening.

[MV_snow]

Really happy for the folks that got epic thunder today and yesterday. Storms just missed us to the west and we got like 10 mins of heavy rain was all. Hard to believe there’s yet another heat wave on tap for next week.

[MV_snow]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPSL got totally shafted.  I had no idea this was happening.

Yeah, normally we’re in a decent position for storms drifting west when they’re focused over the cascades. Obviously a different setup today.

[Kolk1604]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Any bets on whether the GFS will bust about 8 to 10 degrees high tomorrow?  It's predicting a ridiculous 87.

I say throw it out. Next Thursday is garbage on thr 18z GFS 

[GobBluth]

45 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's on the record in a specific time frame.  It's going to flip hard this year.

Funny thing is the models have hinted a couple times of next week's hot ridge doing a big broad retrogression and putting the pnw into a zonal nw flow. Could see that actually happening into September when the 4ch is ready to die.

[Phishy Wx]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

You heard it here first.  Abnormal cold snap somewhere between Sept 10 and Oct 20 coming our way.  Once the summer pattern collapses, I think we will go back to the generally below normal regime we had seen for months prior to this summer.

could you be a little more broader on those timelines?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the significant precip is going to take a while.

I love cool crisp fall mornings. But I'm itching for some wet stormy weather.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

52 minutes ago, HoodCanalBridge said:

This made for the most exciting round of golf…. Ever… in Kitsap county 

Quite the storm up there today! I wish we experienced more thunderstorms west of the Cascades.  One of the reasons why I actually considered moving down to Florida a while back.

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

could you be a little more broader on those timelines?

I'm talking about something exceptional so that's the real crux of the prediction.  At least I'm putting it out there.

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, HoodCanalBridge said:

This made for the most exciting round of golf…. Ever… in Kitsap county 

 Club up! Lol…yikes

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Quite the storm up there today! I wish we experienced more thunderstorms west of the Cascades.  One of the reasons why I actually considered moving down to Florida a while back.

In Florida there would be a dozen things you hated about the weather for that one advantage.  That having been said thunderstorm action in the EPSL has been abysmal the last two years.  At least I have had some thunder this year unlike last year.

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Amazingly this August has a shot at topping 1967 for hottest August on record.  We were going into a Nina that year, but this one is well established.  There was certainly no reason to expect this month to end up THIS warm.

Here 2017 and 2014 were warmer than 1967, but still after seeing the 4th hottest July on record here and now we could also see a very hot August is crazy.

[Blizzard777]

Absolutely fantastic day of swimming in storms! I love it here
Would love to keep sending these storms towards the NW..so fun

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Absolutely fantastic day of swimming in storms! I love it here
Would love to keep sending these storms towards the NW..so fun

Spectacular pics!    You could really be a professional photographer.   Also loved that nest cam capture you posted earlier.   Do you have the time lapse loop from this morning?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

In Florida there would be a dozen things you hated about the weather for that one advantage.  That having been said thunderstorm action in the EPSL has been abysmal the last two years.  At least I have had some thunder this year unlike last year.

Yeah, that's why I eventually decided not to. It's a great vacation destination though.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Absolutely fantastic day of swimming in storms! I love it here
Would love to keep sending these storms towards the NW..so fun

Wow, spectacular pictures again! How warm was the water? Is that Lake Havasu?

[TacomaWx]

Going out to ocean shores this weekend. Almost wish I was going during the heatwave to avoid the warmth back at home…but should be a good time either way. 

[Doinko]

25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

In Florida there would be a dozen things you hated about the weather for that one advantage.  That having been said thunderstorm action in the EPSL has been abysmal the last two years.  At least I have had some thunder this year unlike last year.

Last year I did have some thunder in March but it was just a one shot thing. I did see some lightning this year which is the first time I have in a while which is nice.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Going out to ocean shores this weekend. Almost wish I was going during the heatwave to avoid the warmth back at home…but should be a good time either way. 

Yeah... this weekend looks pretty nice in the Seattle area.   Summer perfection in my opinion.    

[MossMan]

69/56 on the day. Currently 64. 
A few drops but otherwise a dry day with almost two hours straight of distant rumbles. Got lots of pressure washing done! 
Clearing out this evening. 

[Phil]

4 hours ago, T-Town said:

My daughter took off for DC at 8:30 this morning. Landed in Philly after circling DC because of severe t storms. Back in the air hoping to land in DC this time. She seems crabby based on her texts. 

I was watching our nest camera as it moved in. Raging winds and a blitz of CTG bolts before the signal cut off. Must have been a powerful storm, sucks I missed it.

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Any bets on whether the GFS will bust about 8 to 10 degrees high tomorrow?  It's predicting a ridiculous 87.

The GFS surface temps are absurdly warm and the BL is almost always too dry.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

The GFS surface temps are absurdly warm and the BL is almost always too dry.

I am not sure... but I think the GFS has done better than the ECMWF for Seattle this summer.   I might have to track it for the next couple weeks to be sure.   Probably due to more sunny days than usual this summer.    The GFS does much better for Seattle on days with no morning clouds and timing of clearing is not an issue.   

And on many of the days when the GFS has busted warm for SEA... it often has been pretty close out here away from the water.     North Bend has been warmer than Seattle on a majority of the days since late June... similar to last July and August and common with weak onshore flow.  

[Doinko]

On the 00z Wednesday is 94 instead of 102 thankfully, hoping it's cooler for Thursday as well at Portland

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not sure... but I think the GFS has done better than the ECMWF for Seattle this summer.   I might have to track it for the next couple weeks to be sure.   Probably due to more sunny days than usual this summer.    The GFS does much better for Seattle on days with no morning clouds and timing of clearing is not an issue.   

And on many of the days when the GFS has busted warm for SEA... it often has been pretty close out here away from the water.     North Bend has been warmer than Seattle on a majority of the days since late June... similar to last July and August and common with weak onshore flow.  

The GFS boundary layer problems are well documented. It runs warm/dry just about everywhere in the US in the summer, and will be corrected with the next upgrade.

And it’s objectively true that the ECMWF is a better model than the GFS. Not even debatable.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

The GFS boundary layer problems are well documented. It runs warm/dry just about everywhere in the US in the summer, and will be corrected with the next upgrade.

And it’s objectively true that the ECMWF is a better model than the GFS. Not even debatable.

ECMWF is a better model for sure.   But when it comes to our local surface details... its almost always too cold.    The GFS clearly has mixing issues.   But mixing has not been a huge issue this summer.   Many days have started out sunny and the GFS is much better than the ECMWF with high temps in the Puget Sound region when timing of clearing is not an issue.   

I will document it for the next couple weeks.   I am fairly certain the GFS will end up closer overall.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Well we should be well into the running backs and defensive backs by the end of the month.