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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Analog? 😱 

 

1999 has been a complete failure as a summer analog in the PNW.     Not even close.  

And I thought that was the best analog year going into this summer.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Latest EPS seasonal projects November as the coldest month relative to average in the PNW.

Verbatim December looks ridgy, January looks like a mishmash of different patterns, and February looks zonal.

Kind of due for some November fun.  I’d wager some money it snow’s imby in November this year. 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

1999 has been a complete failure as a summer analog in the PNW.     Not even close.  

And I thought that was the best analog year going into this summer.  

That’s why analogs should serve as guides, not gospel.

An analog year can display incredible homogeneity from a large scale standpoint but fail to replicate that in particular regions (or at particular subseasonal intervals).

This is a science still in its embryonic stages.

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La Niña odds up to 80%. Lol at those calling for a demise.

And this is still a conservative hedge, especially on the tail. I suspect La Niña conditions will run into spring 2023 at least.

 

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Seems like NE-Canada/Greenland is the only place that consistently sees cold anomalies anymore.

Baffin Island gets more appealing every year.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

La Niña odds up to 80%. Lol at those calling for a demise.

And this is still a conservative hedge, especially on the tail. I suspect La Niña conditions will run well into spring 2023 at least.

 

I am guessing a Nino transition next spring.

But Nina summers have become a warm weather lovers dream lately... hate to see anything change.  ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

72 and sunny on 12/16 book it

Then a crash to a regional blizzard and widespread temps below zero from Medford to SW BC 8-9 days later. Cape Blanco sees a foot of snow, so draw the conclusions as to how much the rest get.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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51 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

November 1955 please

I would also be okay with a November 1985, 2006, 2010, or even 1996! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Light at the end of the tunnel on day 9/10 of the Euro!??

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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12Z EPS... except for a few hours on Saturday it shows persistent warmth but nothing too extreme.   Likely going to be a temporary break down late next week in between ridges but probably warmer than normal even then.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1660219200-1660219200-1661515200-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I have zero sympathy for the man who has ready access to jetski and boat at two different bodies of water, one of which is almost guaranteed to be hot. Eat sh*t randy hahaha!!

Jet Ski Crash GIFs | Tenorimage.thumb.png.11eb51c377034f0bbd5afd10d0f71ecf.png

Tim, on the other hand, will be stuck on lake sammamish with 80 degree water and 75 degree air temps. Prayers up!

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Got chased off the beach by a strong thunderstorm today.

50mph outflow sent dozens of beach umbrellas flying into the ocean. Then 10mins later a barrage of CTG bolts sent people screaming and running for cover.

I’m on my 7th Long Island and am loving life! :lol: 

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And some of those hit f**king close. Like within 100 yards. Just bombarded the beach, simultaneous lightning and thunder. If I wasn’t  sloshed I’d probably be pretty unnerved right now. 😂

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Got chased off the beach by a strong thunderstorm today.

50mph outflow sent dozens of beach umbrellas flying into the ocean. Then 10mins later a barrage of CTG bolts sent people screaming and running for cover.

I’m on my 7th Long Island and am loving life! :lol: 

must be the weakest long islands in the world

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1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

1985 only had 3.4" of snow in Portland while 1955 had 8.4" so I'd personally take 1955 for this area. And 1955 had 6 highs 30 or below in a row!

Okay.  You can have ‘55. I’ll take ‘85. We had 39” of snow. And it stayed below freezing for 12 consecutive days. 

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35 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I have zero sympathy for the man who has ready access to jetski and boat at two different bodies of water, one of which is almost guaranteed to be hot. Eat sh*t randy hahaha!!

Jet Ski Crash GIFs | Tenorimage.thumb.png.11eb51c377034f0bbd5afd10d0f71ecf.png

Tim, on the other hand, will be stuck on lake sammamish with 80 degree water and 75 degree air temps. Prayers up!

I used to have access to 3 different bodies of water back when my mom lived on Moses Lake, so being down to 2 is rough. 😔

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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29 minutes ago, Phil said:

And some of those hit f**king close. Like within 100 yards. Just bombarded the beach, simultaneous lightning and thunder. If I wasn’t  sloshed I’d probably be pretty unnerved right now. 😂

Careful. Dewey has probably been tracking you and waiting for a time when you are drunk and vulnerable. Hope your chastity belt is locked up. 

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