August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Repetition 

I usually assume Jim will miss a post unless it’s basically nailed to his forehead.

[ShawniganLake]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not so sure about that.  You guys had an epic run last winter and the Seattle area did pretty well too.

It got cold for a few days here.  Not really comparable to 68-69 at all

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The winters haven't been warmer than they were in the late 90s through 2006 though.  

I haven’t run the numbers but I think a decadal warming trend would be pretty obvious even if you started in that era. We’ve seen a lot of big league winter time torches in recent years even though we’ve had some decent events scattered in too.

Some stuff from the much maligned 1999-2006 period, like the January 2004 airmass in the Columbia basin, set benchmarks that haven’t been approached since. And of course December 1998, which is right before your arbitrary cutoff, featured an arctic airmass that penetrated the region in a way that hasn’t been repeated in the last near quarter century.

[ShawniganLake]

Starting to look more likely that the trough late next week is going to try to cutoff to our west again. 

[snow_wizard]

One thing I found really interesting is parts of the UK and Western Europe have actually seen about the most cooling of anywhere during the summer this century.  I often think of them as being on kind of parallel path with us, but not in this case.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing I fund really interesting is parts of the UK and Western Europe have actually seen about the most cooling of anywhere during the summer this century.  I often think of them as being on kind of parallel path with us, but not in this case.

Didn’t London hit like 104 this summer?

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Starting to look more likely that the trough late next week is going to try to cutoff to our west again. 

Should lock us in for warmest month on record down here.

[TacomaWx]

17 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I usually assume Jim will miss a post unless it’s basically nailed to his forehead.

I don’t think he misses the posts he just ignores them entirely 

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I haven’t run the numbers but I think a decadal warming trend would be pretty obvious even if you started in that era. We’ve seen a lot of big league winter time torches in recent years even though we’ve had some decent events scattered in too.

Some stuff from the much maligned 1999-2006 period, like the January 2004 airmass in the Columbia basin, set benchmarks that haven’t been approached since. And of course December 1998, which is right before your arbitrary cutoff, featured an arctic airmass that penetrated the region in a way that hasn’t been repeated in the last near quarter century.

On the other hand.  Comparing the winters 1999-2000 through 2005-06 to 2015-16 through 2021-22 (both 7 year runs) for my area there is a very glaring difference in favor of the recent winters.

Total snowfall:

25.4" vs 54.4"

Months with monthly average below 40:

3 vs 9

Similar results for total max temps of freezing or below and extreme min temps.

 

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Didn’t London hit like 104 this summer?

Yeah...but as you saw on the map that's a blip for them in an otherwise cool summer context this century.  Freak occurrences were a dime a dozen in the 1930s as well.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I don’t think he misses the posts he just ignores them entirely 

There is no denying the recent winters have been better than the period I'm talking about.  I have acknowledged the warm summers this century as much as I possibly can.  The warmth has not shown up in the other season for the most part.

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I don’t think he misses the posts he just ignores them entirely 

Kind of like our warming climate.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Kind of like our warming climate.

Warming in the summer.  I have done posts highlighting that.  You're being unfair.  I love how you ignore my winter stats I posted.

[snow_wizard]

If you're going to attack people bring your stats with you.

[snow_wizard]

GFS is better for next weekend again.  A lot of uncertainty on that.  I again bring proof of that statement.  Not that people acknowledge that.

[Omegaraptor]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If you're going to attack people bring your stats with you.

Before 1998, Government Camp averaged about one or two subzero lows per year. There have been only two subzero lows at Gov’t Camp in the last 23 years. One in January 2004 and one in December 2013.

Jesse has a point about high tier upper level cold airmasses disappearing from our climate.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Before 1998, Government Camp averaged about one or two subzero lows per year. There have been only two subzero lows at Gov’t Camp in the last 23 years. One in January 2004 and one in December 2013.

Jesse has a point about high tier upper level cold airmasses disappearing from our climate.

I do agree on that one.  We'll have to see if that changes.  I don't see any reason we would be incapable of a regionwide blast given situations like last winter where Southern BC had top tier cold for quite a while.

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If you're going to attack people bring your stats with you.

No one’s attacking you. We definitely see things different though. I apologize for not responding to your backyard stats but they seemed kinda cherrypicked to me.

I’ll be at a wedding the rest of the day fwiw so if I don’t respond anymore that’s why 

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

On the other hand.  Comparing the winters 1999-2000 through 2005-06 to 2015-16 through 2021-22 (both 7 year runs) for my area there is a very glaring difference in favor of the recent winters.

Total snowfall:

25.4" vs 54.4"

Months with monthly average below 40:

3 vs 9

Similar results for total max temps of freezing or below and extreme min temps.

 

I’m not sure if there is much point in using 7 year snippets, both warm and cold, to prove or disprove that our climate in warming.  

[Deweydog]

17 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

No one’s attacking you. We definitely see things different though. I apologize for not responding to your backyard stats but they seemed kinda cherrypicked to me.

I’ll be at a wedding the rest of the day fwiw so if I don’t respond anymore that’s why 

[Doinko]

39 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

On the other hand.  Comparing the winters 1999-2000 through 2005-06 to 2015-16 through 2021-22 (both 7 year runs) for my area there is a very glaring difference in favor of the recent winters.

Total snowfall:

25.4" vs 54.4"

Months with monthly average below 40:

3 vs 9

Similar results for total max temps of freezing or below and extreme min temps.

 

Unrelated but in the 2015-16 to 2021-22 stretch I've had around 40" of snow. PDX around 44". I thought the difference would've been slightly larger because of the more Puget Sound focused events recently, but we've been doing decent too

[BLI snowman]

Very end of August is about the earliest believable time for the miserable midsummer regime to end. Now in sight in the clown range. Gonna have to slog through some more 95+ stuff first.

[snow_wizard]

It's actually kind of odd that SEA has a shot at hottest August on record when there have only been two 85+ days so far this month.  It doesn't seem like it's been that warm, but it's possible we could beat 1967.

[snow_wizard]

41 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’m not sure if there is much point in using 7 year snippets, both warm and cold, to prove or disprove that our climate in warming.  

The only thing I was saying is for winters the 1999 through 2006 period was absolute rock bottom for us for any time period.  No question things have been better in recent years.  We will see how that holds up.  If this is a really great winter (which is certainly on the table more so this year than most) that would put us even further from being at that level of fail.  

I think it's kind of a big deal that 20 years down the road we are actually doing much better than the turn of the century.

[snow_wizard]

29 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Unrelated but in the 2015-16 to 2021-22 stretch I've had around 40" of snow. PDX around 44". I thought the difference would've been slightly larger because of the more Puget Sound focused events recently, but we've been doing decent too

Some places have had quite a bit more than me.  I largely missed out on the final Feb 2019 snowstorm and the Feb 2021 event was diminished due to east winds.

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Very end of August is about the earliest believable time for the miserable midsummer regime to end. Now in sight in the clown range. Gonna have to slog through some more 95+ stuff first.

Yeah....at least we are getting close.  The summer was pretty short, assuming it doesn't drag on forever.  The front end was quite late.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

There is no denying the recent winters have been better than the period I'm talking about.  I have acknowledged the warm summers this century as much as I possibly can.  The warmth has not shown up in the other season for the most part.

Recent winters have been much better than the early 2000s. I feel somewhat spoiled by the last three winters. 

This past season we had approximately 20 inches here during the Christmas through early January period.  My expectations have been heightened. 
 

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

13 hours ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Weather app looking all 80+ degrees past Saturday. Gotta stock up on more ice cream and iced coffee then.

In other news, trying to convince the family to shift our Philippines vacation from January to July, avoiding dry season for wet season. Why? I want real thunderstorms again, I've missed it and it's insane in the tropics. Also that dry season absolutely sucks, oppressively high heat index with full sun and high humidity there for weeks. 

I would probably do the same thing if I wanted to see exciting weather and not just a sunny vacation. You can also tell them that July is the cheapest month to travel there so you can save extra money, maybe that will convince them. Typhoon season is June to September over there so you'll be right in the peak of it.

[BLI snowman]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....at least we are getting close.  The summer was pretty short, assuming it doesn't drag on forever.  The front end was quite late.

Still way too early to do any victory laps. Long range EPS doesn't really offer much hope in the 4CH influence breaking down in the next few weeks. With our luck we'll probably get a September like 1974.

[Deweydog]

44 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Still way too early to do any victory laps. Long range EPS doesn't really offer much hope in the 4CH influence breaking down in the next few weeks. With our luck we'll probably get a September like 1974.

Seems the pattern currently is being driven much more by how the strong cyclonic stuff in the GOA evolves.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

There is no denying the recent winters have been better than the period I'm talking about.  I have acknowledged the warm summers this century as much as I possibly can.  The warmth has not shown up in the other season for the most part.

We haven't had a sub freezing high since Jan 2017. Longest stretch on record. And please do not break out comparisons to 69-69, the greatest winter event here along with Jan 1950.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Some places have had quite a bit more than me.  I largely missed out on the final Feb 2019 snowstorm and the Feb 2021 event was diminished due to east winds.

Feb 2019 would have broken record snowfall if that month had actually featured a huge singular storm in K-Falls. 

Still ended up being #2 and the largest event was around 5". I guess that shows it rarely snows throughout all of February there. Look how 2014 ended with 60's in the last several days.

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We haven't had a sub freezing high since Jan 2017. Longest stretch on record. And please do not break out comparisons to 69-69, the greatest winter event here along with Jan 1950.

After that last t'storm event in Eugene, I think you got your old climate back. 

If there isn't a sub freezing high or three next winter there, I snip my (censored) 

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Seems the pattern currently is being driven much more by how the strong cyclonic stuff in the GOA evolves.

Disagree, the sprawling 591dm+ height dome across the interior West that is a hallmark of the midsummer 4CH remains steady and firmly planted and able to take full charge through week 2 without any major downstream changes as it phases with the seasonal North Pacific high. Still looks like your typical midsummer dynamics on steroids, as you'd expect from the 2020s. 

And it looks like it's going to flex pretty hard for one last good gasp before the quasi-autumnal transition maybe starts to get going during the last few days of the month and we can start to get some firmer dents in its armor as it suppresses southward.

[Timmy Supercell]

2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Before 1998, Government Camp averaged about one or two subzero lows per year. There have been only two subzero lows at Gov’t Camp in the last 23 years. One in January 2004 and one in December 2013.

Jesse has a point about high tier upper level cold airmasses disappearing from our climate.

That's kind of surprising. Somehow they avoided one in January 2017!

While the occurrence of <0 lows have been on the decrease where I lived, they do seem to be having the extreme ones more frequently (between -10 to -20). A handful of KLMT's top 10 lows happened in the last several years.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Recent winters have been much better than the early 2000s. I feel somewhat spoiled by the last three winters. 

This past season we had approximately 20 inches here during the Christmas through early January period.  My expectations have been heightened. 
 

 

 

This one is bound to be like the other recent ones or better given the multi year Nina and +QBO.  We have beenon a decent roll actually.

[snow_wizard]

53 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Seems the pattern currently is being driven much more by how the strong cyclonic stuff in the GOA evolves.

I kind of agree.  The times it gets isolated / completely breaks any connection with the North American ridge it causes a deep low to dig off the West Coast.

[Blizzard777]

Getting lucky but I’m also chasing (Idaho)

Gotta love it !!!

[snow_wizard]

Any word on whether Larry Cosgrove is still going for a Nino this winter?  It would take and unprecedented bona fide miracle to pull it off now.  Not sure why he stuck with that sinking ship for so long.

[Kayla]

9 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Getting lucky but I’m also chasing (Idaho)

Gotta love it !!!

Looks like down near Pocatello?? Getting more rounds of storms moving through here today as well!