Jump to content

August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


Recommended Posts

Water off the West Coast is really warm now and likely to get warmer with a deep trough well offshore and general southerly flow for the foreseeable future.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1 (6).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-0780800.png

  • Sun 1
  • Downvote 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Looks like the T Town donut hole has set up north of T Town today. The Lord is blessing us with cloudy conditions while I can see blue sky just to my north. 

Actually a very enjoyable day here with some sun at times.  Very comfortable.  That's about the best we can ask from August these days.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

74 here but a touch sticky.  Sunshine about half the time.  No more 90's please.

I think sea tac and south of Olympia might hit 90 but I think the majority of people in western WA are probably done with the 90s this year. This up coming warm up doesn’t look like anything major just mid to upper 80s. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another GFS run that shows a weak trough late next week.  Looking like we're going to avoid any long runs of terrible heat for now at least.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Disagree, the sprawling 591dm+ height dome across the interior West that is a hallmark of the midsummer 4CH remains steady and firmly planted and able to take full charge through week 2 without any major downstream changes as it phases with the seasonal North Pacific high. Still looks like your typical midsummer dynamics on steroids, as you'd expect from the 2020s. 

And it looks like it's going to flex pretty hard for one last good gasp before the quasi-autumnal transition maybe starts to get going during the last few days of the month and we can start to get some firmer dents in its armor as it suppresses southward.

Heights in the low 590’s is essentially climo for the SW. In this particular case, the 4CH phasing looks rather pedestrian and the GOA low is acting as more of a west coast heat pump.

image.png

Edited by Deweydog
  • Like 2

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I think sea tac and south of Olympia might hit 90 but I think the majority of people in western WA are probably done with the 90s this year. This up coming warm up doesn’t look like anything major just mid to upper 80s. 

Another one or two 90s wouldn't shock me actually, but this late it would be very dry heat if it happens.

  • Like 1
  • lol 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Meet Harvey, Charleston's wx observer! 😇

weatherstory.png

  • Like 3
  • Excited 1
  • Storm 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Heights in the low 590’s is essentially climo for the SW. In this particular case, the 4CH phasing looks rather pedestrian and the GOA low is acting as more of a west coast heat pump.

image.png

Eh, this doesn't look too pedestrian to me. Pretty healthy and well phased 4CH dominating the western half of the continent. No sign of a more traditional autumnal meridional setup in the next 10-12 days.

image.png

image.png

 

  • Like 3
  • Excited 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Another one or two 90s wouldn't shock me actually, but this late it would be very dry heat if it happens.

Eh this heatwaves been getting dialed back. Even the gfs which was more aggressive with the temps seems to have backed off. I’m sure some of the usual suspects like south of Olympia or in the cascade valleys could do it and SEA of course. Pretty sure at my house we’re done with 90s by the time we get into the second half of august takes a pretty decent set up to hit +90. 

  • Excited 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

WILDFIRE UPDATE

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/13/22  

Washington - 3 (3 new fires in the state.  Firefighters have made impressive progress at taking out dozens of new fires.  There are five large fires in the state. The total drops from 49 fires to 42.) Total: 42

Oregon - 7 (7 new fires in the state. Crews are doing an amazing job at cleaning up fires. There are three large fires in the state. The total of fires drops from 52 to 49.) Total: 49

Idaho - 2 (2 new fires in the state.  The Ross Creek Fire near Pocatello has thankfully been put out.  This drops the total number of large fires from four to three. The total number fires grows from 16 to 19.) Total: 19

British Columbia - 108 (Yesterday say 74 new fires and today is even worse, 108 new fires. The number of large fires in the province increases drops from seven to six, that is about the only good news we have here. The total amount of fires in the province increases from 118 to 163, the highest so far this year.) Total: 163

Who Has had The Most Amount of Fires (Ranked by days in which they've had the most fires, only counting days we've kept track here.)

1. British Columbia - 19 days with the most wildfires

2. Oregon - 2 days with the most wildfires.

SMOKE UPDATE

Onshore winds have pushed all smoke east of the Cascade Crest.  Both Medford and Bend have a clean air day with minimal low level smoke. All populated areas east of the Cascade's have to deal with high level smoke, but thankfully not low level deteriorating air quality. Winds from Northern California are expected to shift south by Sunday further cleaning the air for the entire region. 

Poor air quality still exists due to smoke in various BC valleys near wildfires. 

  • Like 6
  • Sick 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Actually a very enjoyable day here with some sun at times.  Very comfortable.  That's about the best we can ask from August these days.

Both yesterday and today were fantastic. Mid-seventies with a nice breeze. Can’t ask for better. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Quiet afternoon.

Late summer in the offseason. Probly lots of folks out doing family activities or just enjoying the beautiful days like this where we're one of the best places to be on the whole planet weather-wise. We'll turn the furnace on over the next few days and start the preseason up in Sept with our analogs and the regular season generally gets going once our first fall storms arrive.

  • Like 3
  • Rain 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Late summer in the offseason. Probly lots of folks out doing family activities or just enjoying the beautiful days like this where we're one of the best places to be on the whole planet weather-wise. We'll turn the furnace on over the next few days and start the preseason up in Sept with our analogs and the regular season generally gets going once our first fall storms arrive.

This is what I’m doing right now! (After hours of tractor work as I’m prepping the trails that turn to mud in the winter, which in turn turns the dogs into muddy messes…Trying to lessen that for mud season 2022/23) Currently 72. 

3D6F36B2-8D4C-433A-9D4D-8E7E1763847F.jpeg

Edited by MossMan
  • Like 6
  • Popcorn 1
  • Downvote 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Eh, this doesn't look too pedestrian to me. Pretty healthy and well phased 4CH dominating the western half of the continent. No sign of a more traditional autumnal meridional setup in the next 10-12 days.

image.png

image.png

 

I guess that’s kinda the point. The 4CH is essentially just a small piece of a pretty well-established teleconnective picture in both those cases, especially in the believable range. Pretty classic strong trough/strong ridge/trough pattern. Certainly a switch from the precursor pattern for the big heat to end July which was a massive westward 4CH expansion that also phased with the very amplified west coast ridge.

  • Popcorn 1
  • Weenie 3

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wicked thunderstorm outbreak on this GFS run late next weekend or just after.

  • Like 2
  • Storm 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

“You better not pull the rug on 11/20 this year you little sh*t” 

I think November is on the table this year.

  • Confused 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

More realistic GFS run tonight with that late week trough getting cutoff hard well to our west. 

It's going to be very interesting to see how that plays out.  Not sure which is the most realistic possibility.  

  • Popcorn 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This GFS run shows Pierce and South King County getting pummeled in the early part of the week after next.  Major T-Storm and heavy amounts of rain.

  • Like 2
  • Popcorn 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Only 0.31" inch of rain here in the last 56 days.  Bone dry out there.

  • Sun 1
  • Downvote 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Purdy GOA / Aleutian block forms on this GFS run late in the month.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Water off the West Coast is really warm now and likely to get warmer with a deep trough well offshore and general southerly flow for the foreseeable future.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1 (6).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-0780800.png

“Really warm”. :lol:

Warm water doesn’t happen on the West Coast. It’s solely an East Coast phenomenon.

925578D7-0285-432E-849D-A06B5F705FE6.png

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

57F and very nice out there.

  • Like 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 5767

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    2. 5767

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    3. 5767

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...