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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

First 90+ high since hitting 100 on the 7th. Gotta hit at least 90 tomorrow though for an official heatwave since Friday will only be in the 80s.

web_PDXTemp_13days-4.jpg.081fbcc9c86193d7d6f1b32b4c1a3edd.jpg

Just incredible how much hotter Portland has been than SEA.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Just incredible how much hotter Portland has been than SEA.

Both places are in the running for a record hot month. Obviously SEA is 150 miles north of PDX and closer to a large body of cool water, giving it lower averages. Nothing incredible about it at all.

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2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Most people do. Our brains are pre-wired to. Goes back to the days of our evolution in the savannas of Africa (grassland with scattered trees).

Ok....

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Both places are in the running for a record hot month. Obviously SEA is 150 miles north of PDX and closer to a large body of cool water, giving it lower averages. Nothing incredible about it at all.

A 7 degree diff for the average high is pretty out there.  Also....as I mentioned earlier the heat at SEA was way more impressive in 1967.  We'll see what the second half of the month has to say.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

La Nina Septembers can torch hard though.  On the other hand hot La Nina summers like 1971 had early / cold autumns.  We shall see.

The usual La Niña/El nino stuff is pretty much out the window though. The last 2 La Niña Septembers weren’t really torchy at all…although had it not been for smoke 2020 could’ve been way hotter. 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A 7 degree diff for the average high is pretty out there.  Also....as I mentioned earlier the heat at SEA was way more impressive in 1967.  We'll see what the second half of the month has to say.

Definitely means you guys will be seven degrees colder in the winter.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hasn’t been much talk about it but there has been a short term trend to sharpen the heat on Wednesday and Thursday, reversing the moderating trend that had been going in for awhile. Thursday could crack 100 in the Portland area.

Yeah a couple days ago it was looking like we would fall short of 90 up here. Will probably get another 90 on Thursday for sure. Tonight’s euro is going for 101 at PDX and 93 here that day. 

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7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hasn’t been much talk about it but there has been a short term trend to sharpen the heat on Wednesday and Thursday, reversing the moderating trend that had been going in for awhile. Thursday could crack 100 in the Portland area.

Thermal belt is really impressive late Wednesday into Thursday. Actually warmer on the WRF compared to anything shown during the brief late July warm spell.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Good illustration of how this summer has felt weather wise.

Well the good news is that the sun angles are decreasing quick and we’re losing about 3 minutes of light per day. Have definitely noticed my bedroom is shaded by the trees a lot faster in the evenings now. A month ago I’d have full blaring sunlight in my window until 8pm or so now by 630pm it’s gone behind the trees. 

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

Well the good news is that the sun angles are decreasing quick and we’re losing about 3 minutes of light per day. Have definitely noticed my bedroom is shaded by the trees a lot faster in the evenings now. A month ago I’d have full blaring sunlight in my window until 8pm or so now by 630pm it’s gone behind the trees. 

Its nice to see but I still have literally no hope that things will cool down for at least the next 3-4 weeks, and probably not until after we get some sort of major regional smoke/fire outbreak. We’ll see. Maybe I’m just looking at the models too much.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Its nice to see but I still have literally no hope that things will cool down for at least the next 3-4 weeks, and probably not until after we get some sort of major regional smoke/fire outbreak. We’ll see. Maybe I’m just looking at the models too much.

Just gotta take it a day at a time…we’re getting closer and closer to the wet season it’ll come soon enough. 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Just gotta take it a day at a time…we’re getting closer and closer to the wet season it’ll come soon enough. 

It will always come, just wish summer was more enjoyable these days. I remember when I used to really like this time of year.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Well I’ve been waiting all night for the better call Saul series finale to show up on Netflix and it looks like it’s that time finally. Watched El Camino earlier to get into the breaking bad mood. Have a good night y’all. 

It was quite good.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Nice improvement on the GEFS tonight for month's end, and the ECMWF weeklies showed a nice PNA drop as well.  Even tonight's ECMWF operational might be going somewhere at the end.  That big GOA low gets pushed westward possibly setting the stage for a big Western trough.  Just saying the end of the month might work out for a nice surprise.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I am doubtful of their 125* forecast.  
I have seen 111* in DFW area for 1 (rare) day however, pushing the heat up another 14* over a stretch of days just isn’t  reasonable at all.  
No Tx is not Death Valley, Calif.  

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“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Nice improvement on the GEFS tonight for month's end, and the ECMWF weeklies showed a nice PNA drop as well.  Even tonight's ECMWF operational might be going somewhere at the end.  That big GOA low gets pushed westward possibly setting the stage for a big Western trough.  Just saying the end of the month might work out for a nice surprise.

06Z GEFS did not continue that trend.   GOA low shifted westward with more ridging over the west.    The 00Z EPS and control run also look warm at the end of the month.   The control run in particular would be quite concerning in terms of fire with an amplified ridge and offshore flow.

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Most people do. Our brains are pre-wired to. Goes back to the days of our evolution in the savannas of Africa (grassland with scattered trees).

But do they bless the rains down in Africa?

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29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z GEFS did not continue that trend.   GOA low shifted westward with more ridging over the west.    The 00Z EPS and control run also look warm at the end of the month.   The control run in particular would be quite concerning in terms of fire with an amplified ridge and offshore flow.

 

I think the entire west is going to be waiting for the seasonal weakening in September of the SW high to finally move into a new regime.

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43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z GEFS did not continue that trend.   GOA low shifted westward with more ridging over the west.    The 00Z EPS and control run also look warm at the end of the month.   The control run in particular would be quite concerning in terms of fire with an amplified ridge and offshore flow.

 

You’d love that wouldn’t you.

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6 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

I think the entire west is going to be waiting for the seasonal weakening in September of the SW high to finally move into a new regime.

New EPS weeklies are grotesque through September.

Unless you’re a heat miser or sadist that likes to watch things burn and die. In which case it’s an amazing pattern.

 

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23 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

You literally could not have been more wrong

I’d love to see you attempt a detailed seasonal forecast. Then I could critique every mistake for months on end.

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42 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’d love to see you attempt a detailed seasonal forecast. Then I could critique every mistake for months on end.

You did say more recently that the pattern would flip to troughy in the West in the second half of July... then moved that to a delayed start of July 25th.     Apparently this is still delayed?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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