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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

What kind of world do you think your kid is going to grow up in Shawnigan? Does it ever bother you that the next generation will have a dead ecosystem on their hands?

The ecosystem will not be dead in my children's lifetime. It will change and we will adapt. 

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This place is full of f*cking sadists 

I stepped on here just 5 minutes ago, hoping my popcorn reacts are not taken the wrong way. lol

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This place is full of f*cking sadists 

You were mocking some of us yesterday for the "suicidal spring"... looks like the same can be said for you and summer.    Take a break.    This is what happened last year.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z GEFS did not continue that trend.   GOA low shifted westward with more ridging over the west.    The 00Z EPS and control run also look warm at the end of the month.   The control run in particular would be quite concerning in terms of fire with an amplified ridge and offshore flow.

 

Something to keep in mind is that there are a lot of differences between a September 2020 repeat and a typical early fall offshore flow pattern. The cross-Cascade gradient with that setup was insane and a more typical setup is more shallow and usually more confined to the actual effects of the inverted surface trough. In particular, the east side is usually dead calm. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Something to keep in mind is that there are a lot of differences between a September 2020 repeat and a typical early fall offshore flow pattern. The cross-Cascade gradient with that setup was insane and a more typical setup is more shallow and usually more confined to the actual effects of the inverted surface trough. In particular, the east side is usually dead calm. 

Was the heatwave in early September 2017 a more typical setup?

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Something to keep in mind is that there are a lot of differences between a September 2020 repeat and a typical early fall offshore flow pattern. The cross-Cascade gradient with that setup was insane and a more typical setup is more shallow and usually more confined to the actual effects of the inverted surface trough. In particular, the east side is usually dead calm. 

I was going to say, not all warm Septembers are like that year. Its easy for humans to jump to extremes. 

 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I was going to say, not all warm Septembers are like that year. Its easy for humans to jump to extremes. 

 

How many record warm summer months have we seen in the last five years alone? Jumping to extremes seems like the best forecasting method these days when it comes to warmth. None of us were even extreme enough in June 2021.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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I had forgotten how Sep 2017 took a cool turn after the first several hot days in my former area.

2022-08-16 14_03_28-NOWData Results.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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19 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Was the heatwave in early September 2017 a more typical setup?

Definitely, when looking at a more typical heat low-driven pattern. You’d see areas of Red Flag conditions, and playing with fireworks in the gorge would be highly inadvisable.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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28 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

How many record warm summer months have we seen in the last five years alone? Jumping to extremes seems like the best forecasting method these days when it comes to warmth. None of us were even extreme enough in June 2021.

There may have been a handful of months since 2013 make it to record territory in the area I moved from, but I thought it was interesting that the time of summer that averages warmest still holds a fair number of really old daily records. This supports what I said before about summers now seem like they are front loaded. 

My hottest week in any September occurred in 2017, and as shared in the above screenshot, turned out to be an average month. There is still variability in the world. 

For what it's worth, I've only seen one September not record any precipitation in the period I lived in Klamath Falls. And its not always a smoke filled month. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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57 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This place is full of f*cking sadists 

Perhaps it’s time for another forum break? You relentlessly go off on any frustration posts made by other members during the long dark cold wet spring days yet we are supposed to bow down to you when you do the same thing? This season is almost over and we will soon be back to 9 months of Jesse weather. Perhaps 10 months since this summer weather did not appear until July this year. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Perhaps it’s time for another forum break? You relentlessly go off on any frustration posts made by other members during the long dark cold wet spring days yet we are supposed to bow down to you when you do the same thing? This season is almost over and we will soon be back to 9 months of Jesse weather. Perhaps 10 months since this summer weather did not appear until July this year. 

Dream Team: The Never Rangers - Lone Star Ball

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Dream Team: The Never Rangers - Lone Star Ball

 

1705240475_tenor(29).gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Jeez, hadn't realized how hot tomorrow and Thursday has become around the PDX area. Looking very likely that 2022 will stand alone as far as number of 100 degree days.

Feeling really fortunate that we may finally catch a break from the furnace out here beginning next week but no such luck for the PNW lowlands. Even with the possible cool down next week, we're still likely looking at the warmest August on record here.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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11 hours ago, Deweydog said:

The West Coast finger of warmth as they call it. So the Willamette Valley will become the present day Sacramento Valley in 30 years. 🤔

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We're only +1.4F here for the month. Not really that extreme. Why is the Portland forecast zone acting like it's the warmest ever for us?

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Jeez, hadn't realized how hot tomorrow and Thursday has become around the PDX area. Looking very likely that 2022 will stand alone as far as number of 100 degree days.

Feeling really fortunate that we may finally catch a break from the furnace out here beginning next week but no such luck for the PNW lowlands. Even with the possible cool down next week, we're still likely looking at the warmest August on record here.

Euro showed a decent break from us late this week through early next week. But then yeah, right back to the furnace.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We're only +1.4F here for the month. Not really that extreme. Why is the Portland forecast zone acting like it's the warmest ever for us?

Summer in Eugene is running 5th warmest on record this year. Top 3 is well within reach with the forecast as well.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Summer in Eugene is running 5th warmest on record this year. Top 3 is well within reach with the forecast as well.

Still I keep hearing about a record hottest August. +3.2F is really the hottest August relative to normal? We're still in 4th place and we're getting down into the 50s at night. I'll be surprised if it's that bad for us.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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Well which part of my comment was confusing, or was it the whole thing. @Cascadia_Wx

I wasn't downplaying anything that's happened up to this point.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Still I keep hearing about a record hottest August. +3.2F is really the hottest August relative to normal? We're still in 4th place and we're getting down into the 50s at night. I'll be surprised if it's that bad for us.

There's still a lot of heat left to go this month.

Second half of the month is looking much warmer than the first half relative to average. And the first half was far from cool.

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If PDX is running +4F from EUG to this point then they should be in a separate forecast zone.

They don't represent us down here and the forecast discussion sometimes just glosses over the south valley.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Still I keep hearing about a record hottest August. +3.2F is really the hottest August relative to normal? We're still in 4th place and we're getting down into the 50s at night. I'll be surprised if it's that bad for us.

1967 is probably out of reach but 2nd hottest August is possible for EUG if the forecast hold true.

Most areas within the Portland NWS forecast area will see a top 3 hottest August if not hottest on record.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Just now, Kayla said:

1967 is probably out of reach but 2nd hottest August is possible for EUG if the forecast hold true.

Most areas within the Portland NWS forecast area will see a top 3 hottest August if not hottest on record.

Portland's temp difference this month is so different than here tho. Doesn't represent EUG or the south valley at all. Esp their warmer nights.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Portland's temp difference this month is so different than here tho. Doesn't represent EUG or the south valley at all. Esp their warmer nights.

Portland’s weather station is in an urban area. EUG’s is rural. We have had this same conversation when you have been doubting their cool lows.

Having a mix of stations in rural and urban areas is no reason to split up forecast zones. Might as well put Battle Ground and Hillsboro in a separate forecast zone than Portland by that logic 

Edited by Cascadia_Wx
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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If PDX is running +4F from EUG to this point then they should be in a separate forecast zone.

They don't represent us down here and the forecast discussion sometimes just glosses over the south valley.

Dude, NWS offices cover large areas with very different microclimates all over the entire country.

My NWS office here is in Great Falls which sits in the High Prairies and is nearly 2,000ft lower in elevation. Very different than our weather here in Bozeman.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Portland’s weather station is in an urban area. EUG’s is rural. We have had this same conversation when you have been doubting their cool lows.

We've been getting down into the 50s in downtown Springfield nightly. We're not rural.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Dude, NWS offices cover large areas with very different microclimates all over the entire country. My NWS office here is in Great Falls which sits in the High Prairies and is nearly 2,000ft lower in elevation. Very different than our weather here in Bozeman.

Bozeman should have a separate forecast zone.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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