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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We've been getting down into the 50s in downtown Springfield nightly. We're not rural.

Apparently more rural than PDX’s little hotbox. We are in a fairly built up area of Fisher’s Landing, just ~5 miles NE of PDX as the crow flies, and have regularly been seeing lows in the 50s while PDX has stayed in the low to mid 60s as well. I need my own forecast area!

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Bozeman should have a separate forecast zone.

There are already 122 NWS offices in the nation. I'd prefer that my tax dollars went to upgrading the GFS rather than another NWS office.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If PDX is running +4F from EUG to this point then they should be in a separate forecast zone.

They don't represent us down here and the forecast discussion sometimes just glosses over the south valley.

If Medford NWS covered Eugene, you'd still be one of the coolest areas as the Rogue Valley has hotter summers than you guys.

Sometimes not everyone runs similar numbers. It looks like MFR has had a few top tier Augusts since 2014, but LMT hasn't had one since 1998.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Today's forecast discussion doesn't even mention anything about the south Willamette Valley, feels to me like they feel as though we don't exist. I have no idea what the detailed dynamics are going to be like for this area and that fuckking sucks and it makes it more difficult for our news stations to make an accurate forecast.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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13 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If PDX is running +4F from EUG to this point then they should be in a separate forecast zone.

They don't represent us down here and the forecast discussion sometimes just glosses over the south valley.

ORZ006-WAZ039-162300-
Greater Portland Metro Area-Greater Vancouver Area-
Including the cities of Hillsboro, Portland, Wilsonville,
Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Vancouver, Battle Ground,
Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt, and Amboy
ORZ007-162300-
Central Willamette Valley-
Including the cities of Salem, McMinnville, Woodburn, Stayton,
and Dallas
ORZ008-162300-
South Willamette Valley-
Including the cities of Eugene, Springfield, Corvallis, Albany,
and Lebanon

Looks like you already are in a different forecast zone!

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Today's forecast discussion doesn't even mention anything about the south Willamette Valley, feels to me like they feel as though we don't exist. I have no idea what the detailed dynamics are going to be like for this area and that fuckking sucks and it makes it more difficult for our news stations to make an accurate forecast.

Not sure why you think there's going to be a meaningful synoptic difference for the South Valley with the coming weather pattern? It's going to be the same exact mechanisms producing the same exact results there this week. Hot and shitty. 

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:
ORZ006-WAZ039-162300-
Greater Portland Metro Area-Greater Vancouver Area-
Including the cities of Hillsboro, Portland, Wilsonville,
Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Vancouver, Battle Ground,
Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt, and Amboy
ORZ007-162300-
Central Willamette Valley-
Including the cities of Salem, McMinnville, Woodburn, Stayton,
and Dallas
ORZ008-162300-
South Willamette Valley-
Including the cities of Eugene, Springfield, Corvallis, Albany,
and Lebanon

Looks like you already are in a different forecast zone!

Then we should have a more detailed discussion for our area. Unfortunate that I read so much about the details of areas to our north and south on separate forecast discussions while this area is ignored.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Not sure why you think there's going to be a meaningful synoptic difference for the South Valley with the coming weather pattern? It's going to be the same exact mechanisms producing the same exact results there this week. Hot and shitty. 

Then they should mention Eugene, the 2nd largest metro area in their zone...They talk about Portland and Salem. What about us here? Our own media market for god's sake.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Then we should have a more detailed discussion for our area. Unfortunate that I read so much about the details of areas to our north and south on separate forecast discussions while this area is ignored.

The south valley is not that different of a climate than here in the summer. Maybe a little warmer overall but quicker to cash in on SWrly marine pushes. And rural versus urban areas will always have big differences with regard to overnight lows.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Then we should have a more detailed discussion for our area. Unfortunate that I read so much about the details of areas to our north and south on separate forecast discussions while this area is ignored.

Everybody hates you, nobody likes you. Now go eat some worms.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Hillsboro's average low is about equal to Eugene's for the month, and highs have been similar throughout the month so far.

Portland does seem to have warm lows and not just every once in a while. PDX refuses to freeze until Christmas, but HIO will have a couple 32's before Halloween. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Portland does seem to have warm lows and not just every once in a while. PDX refuses to freeze until Christmas, but HIO will have a couple 32's before Halloween. 

Been that way for some time. Always remember how often there had been no freeze by Thanksgiving in PDX, as reported by a cousin who gardens. When I was visiting from elsewhere, I often had several hard freezes (puddles freeze completely over, top layer of soil freezes) by then.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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It wouldn't be such a big deal but I can't afford WB in the offseason, which makes it tougher for me to show my family what the weather is going to be like. They will sometimes want more info than what the local stations show so I do my best to keep them informed. The AFD will sometimes mention us so I don't have to really look it up, but I save up to be able to pay for WB in the regular season because posts about up north can cause me to lose sight of what's happening here, esp during winter events up there that aren't impacting this area. I like to see what will happen here and focus on the dynamics of it, even if we're south of the action.

Life sucks when you feel like it could always be your last day.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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28 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The south valley is not that different of a climate than here in the summer. Maybe a little warmer overall but quicker to cash in on SWrly marine pushes. And rural versus urban areas will always have big differences with regard to overnight lows.

Have you lived down here for an extended period? I'm not going to profess to know what things are like in SW Washington.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Have you lived down here for an extended period? I'm not going to profess to know what things are like in SW Washington.

I have access to obs and historical data. They really aren’t as different as you are acting like. Think you’re just in a mood today. It’s ok. It’s been a long week for me too.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I have access to obs and historical data. They really aren’t as different as you are acting like. Think you’re just in a mood today. It’s ok. It’s been a long week for me too.

Michael Jordan Laughing.gif

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Oh I definitely am too. Summers f*cking suck these days. But don’t act like you are the Lone Ranger when it comes to misery. They suck pretty bad for the whole region.

It really hasn't felt as bad here as last year. We haven't had as many 90F+ days to this point. Even with the blast furnace coming up, we're gonna have fewer than last year and our soil moisture is better than at this time last year too. I don't think a big wildfire event is in store for the western lowlands.

I do think we are all in for greatness this coming winter.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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36 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

It wouldn't be such a big deal but I can't afford WB in the offseason, which makes it tougher for me to show my family what the weather is going to be like. They will sometimes want more info than what the local stations show so I do my best to keep them informed. The AFD will sometimes mention us so I don't have to really look it up, but I save up to be able to pay for WB in the regular season because posts about up north can cause me to lose sight of what's happening here, esp during winter events up there that aren't impacting this area. I like to see what will happen here and focus on the dynamics of it, even if we're south of the action.

Life sucks when you feel like it could always be your last day.

If your family really wants you to show them WB data, then maybe ask them diplomatically to put up or shut up (i.e. fund your WB access).

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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And we've got ourselves a 90F burger!

Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny has unfinished business in Seattle

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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2 hours ago, Kayla said:

Dude, NWS offices cover large areas with very different microclimates all over the entire country.

My NWS office here is in Great Falls which sits in the High Prairies and is nearly 2,000ft lower in elevation. Very different than our weather here in Bozeman.

I personally think it's strange that NWS Missoula covers Clearwater and Idaho counties in Idaho since they are closer to Spokane's forecast and most places there are on Pacific Time. But what is even weirder is that Orfofino (low elevation) is in the same forecast zone  area as Grangeville which is about 2.5-3k ft higher and which receives a lot more snow. So a big snow event in Grangeville still issues a warning in Orofino which is only slightly different from Lewiston.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Funny, for all of the “venting” I’ve been doing today it’s still maybe 5% of what we saw over the spring from the very folks I seem to be triggering the most. 😏 And that was our first cool spring in ten years, a far cry from our tenth hot summer in ten years.

Then you have Matt who never complains about anything (except for people that complain) but he will invariably side with his preference pals regardless of background state.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 hours ago, Kayla said:

Jeez, hadn't realized how hot tomorrow and Thursday has become around the PDX area. Looking very likely that 2022 will stand alone as far as number of 100 degree days.

Feeling really fortunate that we may finally catch a break from the furnace out here beginning next week but no such luck for the PNW lowlands. Even with the possible cool down next week, we're still likely looking at the warmest August on record here.

Looks like this summer has already tied the PDX record for days of 98+ at 7, which will probably be broken tomorrow. We also are at 11 days of 95+, the record being 14 in 2015. 

The first front of fall is going to be soooo nice. I'm hoping September ends up okay like we've seen in a lot of recent years, but right now my feeling is that this could be one of those years where summer drags on into October.

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1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

I personally think it's strange that NWS Missoula covers Clearwater and Idaho counties in Idaho since they are closer to Spokane's forecast and most places there are on Pacific Time. But what is even weirder is that Orfofino (low elevation) is in the same forecast zone  area as Grangeville which is about 2.5-3k ft higher and which receives a lot more snow. So a big snow event in Grangeville still issues a warning in Orofino which is only slightly different from Lewiston.

Now in the same boat here, Charleston does forecasting for my area, but Jackson can easily cover all of eastern KY. Their doppler radar also better represents storm events coming into this area. I have to read AFD's from two offices just in case they say something differently, or one of them hasn't posted one in several hours. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Now in the same boat here, Charleston does forecasting for my area, but Jackson can easily cover all of eastern KY. Their doppler radar also better represents storm events coming into this area. I have to read AFD's from two offices just in case they say something differently, or one of them hasn't posted one in several hours. 

I read Pendleton's forecasts too since I'm close to the border between NWS Spokane and Pendleton but Spokane seems to cover my rural fringe area quite well. It's nice to see the neighboring offices to compare how they read the models. But Missoula's Idaho counties seem out of place since they are on the opposite side of a mountain range.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Funny, for all of the “venting” I’ve been doing today it’s still maybe 5% of what we saw over the spring from the very folks I seem to be triggering the most. 😏 And that was our first cool spring in ten years, a far cry from our tenth hot summer in ten years.

Then you have Matt who never complains about anything (except for people that complain) but he will invariably side with his preference pals regardless of background state.

I tried to out-do you today man but you're gonna go full Tim in early June.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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20 minutes ago, James Jones said:

Looks like this summer has already tied the PDX record for days of 98+ at 7, which will probably be broken tomorrow. We also are at 11 days of 95+, the record being 14 in 2015. 

The first front of fall is going to be soooo nice. I'm hoping September ends up okay like we've seen in a lot of recent years, but right now my feeling is that this could be one of those years where summer drags on into October.

We could potentially tie the record for 100+ days tomorrow if we manage 100.

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Real talk time though. Did anyone see this coming for the summer? Even during the massive heatwave at the end of last month, some were pointing to it as a good sign for a cooler late summer. That clearly isn’t happening. WTF is going on. Any alphabet soup, Phil? 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Real talk time though. Did anyone see this coming for the summer? Even during the massive heatwave at the end of last month, some were pointing to it as a good sign for a cooler late summer. That clearly isn’t happening. WTF is going on. Any alphabet soup, Phil? 

I figured we would see something that was average by 1991-2020 averages but wasn’t expecting July to finish +2.4 here and august might be an even bigger positive anomaly. August is running +1.7 here so far. I do not think September is going to be an extended summer stay though based on recent years September hasn’t been too bad. Really do think the best case scenario for summers nowadays is something like 2019 or 2020 minus the hellstorm at the end of 2020. 

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