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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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Just now, LowerGarfield said:

If anyone ever gets a hot dog /weenie emoji from me it's because my six year old finds them hilarious and everytime I'm using the laptop version rather than mobile, he always wants to weenie every post. 

Not hilarious. Reacts are incredibly serious business that everyone involved should be properly offended by and make a big deal about 😡 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Yeah I don’t get people that have every second of a vacation planned out with activities…I want to do as little as possible and just wing it each day. Even my mini trip over to help out my relative do a few things around his place last week, didn’t have the rest of the family but took the jetski to play on the Columbia, was out for hours and probably traveled about 50 miles so the next day I lounged around the house all day and basically did nothing. Both things were super fun! 

That sounds like my wife. Her idea of vacation is to paint or relax in a pool while mine is to take my son and go to museums or enjoy the outdoors. On our last trip two weeks ago we went for a hike in 75 degree weather with a cool breeze and it was glorious.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not hilarious. Reacts are incredibly serious business that everyone involved should be properly offended by and make a big deal about 😡 

Yep. Exactly why I don't let him do it.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

I’m on vacation and have been posting. Easy to lay on a chase lounge and s**tpost if you have WiFi and nothing better to do.

We don’t do many activities on our vacations. The best way to recharge your batteries is to do as little as possible.

No plans are the best plans.😎

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5 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

That sounds like my wife. Her idea of vacation is to paint or relax in a pool while mine is to take my son and go on museums or enjoy the outdoors. On our last trip two weeks ago we went for a hike in 75 degree weather with a cool breeze and it was glorious.

I like staying active on vacations and seeing cool places you have to hike or drive a lot to get to. Then again I never saw the need for heated or cooled seats either.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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19 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not hilarious. Reacts are incredibly serious business that everyone involved should be properly offended by and make a big deal about 😡 

Someone gave me a weenie react once. It took seconds upon seconds for me to recover from the emotional trauma, maybe as many as five.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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37 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

And as long as we're being pedantic, it's technically chaise longue, not chaise lounge (although the "lounge" corruption is becoming more acceptable these days).

https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/chaise-lounge-or-chaise-longue

 

The intersection of French and English is often ugly.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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I think the weenie and downvote reactions are used pretty much interchangeably now. I thought weenie used to mean someone who was wishcasting their own preferences when the models didn’t support it. Now it’s basically “I don’t like what you just posted.”

I wonder how many weenies this post will generate?

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2 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

I think the weenie and downvote reactions are used pretty much interchangeably now. I thought weenie used to mean someone who was wishcasting their own preferences when the models didn’t support it. Now it’s basically “I don’t like what you just posted.”

I wonder how many weenies this post will generate?

I use it for when someone is being a weather weenie and whining a lot, particularly if the whines are not well substantiated by actual data.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Assuming this is not a case of a raging ECMWF cut off bias... cutting off and retrograding the GOA trough late next week might allow for a trough to move down from the north and cool it down.   Of course it requires a very strange and rather extreme evolution to get there so it might be gone on the 00Z run.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1660737600-1661428800-1661580000-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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FWIW... the control run also has a trough to the north by day 11.    But it also shows more energy dumping out into the GOA at that time which would probably cause another ridge to pop up again later on.   

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-1688000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Grass is very brown up here now.   No appreciable rain since July 3rd.    It's much drier than years like 2016 and 2019.   More in line now with 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2021.

20220817_123105.jpg

20220817_124358.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Unless you're talking about lounging around the bank, it's chaise. 🙂

Got me. 🤓

I still remember Dewey’s misspelling of convoluted as convaluded. Pointed it out and he was salty about it for months.

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39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Assuming this is not a case of a raging ECMWF cut off bias... cutting off and retrograding the GOA trough late next week might allow for a trough to move down from the north and cool it down.   Of course it requires a very strange and rather extreme evolution to get there so it might be gone on the 00Z run.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1660737600-1661428800-1661580000-10.gif

The retrograde angle is at least showing up more consistently now on the different models. GFS also has been showing it for the last few days of the month with it seeming to slightly favor an early fall continental front dropping down to our east.

Hopefully we see a decisive enough retrograde of the ridge that allows us to avoid the hot, dry strong offshore flow with a cool airmass over the Rockies scenario.

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A bit of a random question (but also to spark a conversation), anyone have personal experience on how computer science and meteorology can intertwine as a career? I've been thinking about it more, and there has to be people maintaining and updating the GFS and ECMWF supercomputers, right? Those gotta be software engineers/meteorologists, I think.  

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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The retrograde angle is at least showing up more consistently now on the different models. GFS also has been showing it for the last few days of the month with it seeming to slightly favor an early fall continental front dropping down to our east.

Hopefully we see a decisive enough retrograde of the ridge that allows us to avoid the hot, dry strong offshore flow with a cool airmass over the Rockies scenario.

12Z EPS shows basically the same pattern that we have now at the end of the run.  

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-2033600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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51 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Was going to mention tomorrow as having some potential. I guess we’ll see what happens with that area of overcast to our SE this afternoon. 

Looks like it'll at least make our low very warm. KPTV is forecasting a low of 73 in the city, which should be on the top five list for warmest lows.

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48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Grass is very brown up here now.   No appreciable rain since July 3rd.    It's much drier than years like 2016 and 2019.   More in line now with 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2021.

20220817_123105.jpg

20220817_124358.jpg

Only Jesse can downvote these posts. So is it really him? lol

I occasionally miss pages worth of comments on here.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

NWS forecast:

image.png.559c1cd452fa2512c59e338e8d06ffa1.png

Tonight looks really impressive. 925mb temps of 30c+ over the valley with the possibility of well-timed cloud cover and DP’s creeping up toward the mid 60’s. If this were a month ago PDX would have a good shot at breaking last year’s max/min record. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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It does feel a bit weird to have moved to a warmer climate, and its rather mild where I am for being middle of August.

Sorry to stick you guys with a third straight hot summer in a row.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Timmy Supercell said:

It does feel a bit weird to have moved to a warmer climate, and its rather mild where I am for being middle of August.

Sorry to stick you guys with a third straight hot summer in a row.

2020 was not very hot compared to the last two, end of summer firestorm notwithstanding. It was more in line with our record hot summers from 20 years ago.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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