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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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33 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

It was 99 here at 2pm when I last checked. Afternoon temps are usually a bit more reliable because the sun angles in the summer seem to have my temps running warmer in the summer during the early to mid morning range. There's also a wildfire up near Spokane close to 195. I hope everyone up there is safe.

starting to smell some smoke.  it's pretty far from me though, hopefully stays that way

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1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Hearing some pretty credible rumors about In and Out going in (and out) on 139th just west of the big road. Great news for burger and UHI enthusiasts!

We still don’t have one in the 2nd largest metro area in the state. We have gotta be one of the largest metro areas in the nation with so few restaurant options.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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The period from January to July 2015 was ridiculously warm. I think January, February and March were each top tier record warm months where I was.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Depending on how they play their HC hand, PDX may not see another 90 veggie burger until the middle of next week at the earliest.

Not sure what to make of the 12Z ECMWF for tomorrow.   It shows the mid level clouds shoved off just to the east but there will be lots of high clouds.   And even with the extensive high cloud cover being shown... the ECMWF is saying 100 at PDX tomorrow.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-clouds_fourpanel-0867200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-0867200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure what to make of the 12Z ECMWF for tomorrow.   It shows the mid level clouds shoved off just to the east but there will be lots of high clouds.   And even with the extensive high cloud cover being shown... the ECMWF is saying 100 at PDX tomorrow.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-clouds_fourpanel-0867200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-0867200.png

A high of 88 will in turn be pretty……. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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24 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Depending on how they play their HC hand, PDX may not see another 90 veggie burger until the middle of next week at the earliest.

Sooo 100 today AND tomorrow??

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Just now, Deweydog said:

I wish…

You’ve gotten a cold bias in your old age.😜

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure what to make of the 12Z ECMWF for tomorrow.   It shows the mid level clouds shoved off just to the east but there will be lots of high clouds.   And even with the extensive high cloud cover being shown... the ECMWF is saying 100 at PDX tomorrow.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-clouds_fourpanel-0867200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-0867200.png

The Euro just assumes PDX is 100 by default this summer.

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3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

The Euro just assumes PDX is 100 by default this summer.

Seems too high for sure.   But the ECMWF tends to paint high clouds too extensively.  The WRF gives a better idea of what the satellite will probably look like tomorrow.  Looks like more of an issue down there than up here.   

olr.33.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

The Euro just assumes PDX is 100 by default this summer.

Generally if there is a potential warm weather benchmark (80, 90, or 100) with even modest odds looming above PDX's head, it is a safe bet that they will hit it.

Last two days are a nice example with the even 90 readings, as was last week with its nice round 100 while Vancouver and Hillsboro were 99.

 

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The 18z GFS is fully on board for a month end cool spell.  A lot of runs of a lot of models are hinting at it now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z GFS is fully on board for a month end cool spell.  A lot of runs of a lot of models are hinting at it now.

Way too amplified... very unlikely to happen like that.     EPS and GEFS don't show anything like that.

I am guessing the models are trying to pick up on something and struggling... but the reality will probably be more like what the EPS control run is showing with a quick break down and then another ridge. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-1660737600-1660737600-1662033600-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Could still be a rounding error, but SEA is reporting 90 degrees. If that holds tomorrow should tie the all time record of twelve 90+ degree days.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Could still be a rounding error, but SEA is reporting 90 degrees. If that holds tomorrow should tie the all time record of twelve 90+ degree days.

Down to 88 there now... suspense is building.    Was it enough for a 90?   We will know in about 12 minutes. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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