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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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Officially a 90 burger at KSEA!! On to 12 tomorrow.

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2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0"

Total: 6.7"

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6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

100 in the boro!!!

How many of those this summer?

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I'm not trying to pull a full on weenie here, but it is definitely encouraging to see LR maps converge on large GOA ridging and classic slider-type hammer dropping setups as the ridiculous summer ridging feedback loops end and the NH wet season circulation re-emerges. Kind of like a snapshot into what we may see a lot of this winter.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm not trying to pull a full on weenie here, but it is definitely encouraging to see LR maps converge on large GOA ridging and classic slider-type hammer dropping setups as the ridiculous summer ridging feedback loops end and the NH wet season circulation re-emerges. Kind of like a snapshot into what we may see a lot of this winter.

I think there was a mention of a -PNA signal in November from the JMA in one of the East of the Rockies topics. November 1985 + 1955!!!

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1 minute ago, T-Town said:

You screencapped that tweet at 21 seconds old. You win the Internet for the day. 

I just noticed that before you mentioned it. 😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

A summer with analog years of 1999, 2001, and 2011 has no business breaking heat records from 2015.    But here we are.

El Nino is the new Nina. And maybe Lake Mead will then stop revealing more bodies.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I think there was a mention of a -PNA signal in November from the JMA in one of the East of the Rockies topics. November 1985 + 1955!!!

November is an interesting month teleconnectively... Patterns during that month are often reversed entirely from ENSO climo. Pretty reliably warm during -ENSO, and often chilly during +ENSO. Wouldn't bet on a huge November but it can't be ruled out!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Cool data bit is there were 13 days with measurable precipitation at Yreka in August 1968. Almost half of the days in the month.

Nowadays even getting to one (or for that matter, getting a high below 90) is an accomplishment for there.

Troughing was incredible that month in the West. 

F5LWXjaOXJ.png.8cc3276a2546dc048e5ac9c4794e07cd.png

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

You definitely sat there F5-ing the heck out of that didn’t you? 🤣

Actually no... waited until 4:58 and hit refresh on SEA observation page.    Then went to SEA NWS twitter and it was already posted.   👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

November is an interesting month teleconnectively... Patterns during that month are often reversed entirely from ENSO climo. Pretty reliably warm during -ENSO, and often chilly during +ENSO. Wouldn't bet on a huge November but it can't be ruled out!

And since we are doing the complete opposite of a Nina-like summer pattern... a cold November would continue that theme.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Interesting stat if it end up happening tomorrow. 
 

If SEA gets its record tying 12th 90+ days, it will also break old daily record of 88. 
 

It will also means first 3 weeks of August have records highs of 90+. This is followed by entire month of July having daily record highs of 90s or 100s. 
 

In short, our 80s daily record highs are slowly but surely being wiped away as many of the new record highs are set in 2000s or even this past decade. 
 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

And since we are doing the complete opposite of a Nina-like summer pattern... a cold November would continue that theme.

I have a feeling summer has kind of escaped all climo now. Pointless to judge the rest of the year based on JJAS. We've had typical -PNA persistence associated with -ENSO state during winters in the last decade, but summers have remained ferociously hot no matter what. There has to be some kind of feedback loop separate to and superceding of ENSO.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

starting to smell some smoke.  it's pretty far from me though, hopefully stays that way

Storms past really close to the house here in La Pine Or.  and now lots of smoke,  came out of nowhere.  Nothing in the news yet but definitely the smell of wood outside :( 

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13 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Storms past really close to the house here in La Pine Or.  and now lots of smoke,  came out of nowhere.  Nothing in the news yet but definitely the smell of wood outside :( 

Yup. Getting that nearby smoke smell that I grew up smelling in southern CA. 

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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Both Euro and GFS says that we'll be under cloudy skies tomorrow and the mesoscale NAM showed some brief clearing late morning before clouded back up. 

On days like these, the models may just be a tad too warm, so I'm a bit skeptical we'll hit 90 for SEA. 

Current satellite shows clouds now pushing up from the south. 

floop-nam-2022081718.cloudcover.us_state_wa.gif

floop-gfs-2022081718.cloudcover.us_state_wa.gif

floop-ecmwf_full-2022081718.cloudcover.us_state_wa.gif

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Both Euro and GFS says that we'll be under cloudy skies tomorrow and the mesoscale NAM showed some brief clearing late morning before clouded back up. 

On days like these, the models may just be a tad too warm, so I'm a bit skeptical we'll hit 90 for SEA. 

Current satellite shows clouds now pushing up from the south. 

floop-nam-2022081718.cloudcover.us_state_wa.gif

floop-gfs-2022081718.cloudcover.us_state_wa.gif

floop-ecmwf_full-2022081718.cloudcover.us_state_wa.gif

Probably not much hope to see an Aurora show here…if it even materializes that is. 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Both Euro and GFS says that we'll be under cloudy skies tomorrow and the mesoscale NAM showed some brief clearing late morning before clouded back up. 

On days like these, the models may just be a tad too warm, so I'm a bit skeptical we'll hit 90 for SEA. 

Current satellite shows clouds now pushing up from the south. 

floop-nam-2022081718.cloudcover.us_state_wa.gif

floop-gfs-2022081718.cloudcover.us_state_wa.gif

floop-ecmwf_full-2022081718.cloudcover.us_state_wa.gif

That is mostly thin high clouds over western WA.    Looks much more opaque there than it likely will be in reality.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is mostly thin high clouds over western WA.    Looks much more opaque there than it likely will be in reality.

Even so, it will make an impact on what's already will be a marginal day for 90F weather tomorrow.

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6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Even so, it will make an impact on what's already will be a marginal day for 90F weather tomorrow.

We will see.

ECMWF shows the high clouds.   It showed 82 today... actual high was 90 (as Jim says it laid a rotten egg) and it shows 90 for tomorrow.    So it thinks it will be significantly warmer.   Obviously something to watch though. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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19 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

It was clear of smoke early so I’m assuming a wind shift brought this in.  Haven’t been watching the maps as I’m out playing and playing and playing 😁

Yea I think if it was something new it would be reported at this point. Most of the fires are to the SW and I thought the flow was a little more SE. Guess not. 

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We will see.

ECMWF shows the high clouds.   It showed 82 today... actual high was 90 (as Jim says it laid a rotten egg) and it shows 90 for tomorrow.    So it thinks it will be significantly warmer.   Obviously something to watch though. 

 

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I think even with high clouds most places hit 90 Seattle south tomorrow. SEA is pretty much guaranteed it. 

The way I look at this is similar to some of the filtered sunshine we had last couple years w/ the smoke that ended up knocking down the temps by a few degrees than forecast. If there is enough high clouds around, it may just impact it. 

It's only a point of discussion I'm bringing up because we'll see whether or not we get the 12th day of 90+ or have to wait a bit longer. 

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