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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Out climate history features many July and Augusts with very little rain... even long ago.   And then it starts raining again in the fall and never stops.   One extreme to the other... and I am sure it will happen again.   As usual.

Yeah, but there's no denying the extreme dryness of July/August lately is highly unusual for the climate.

SEA, for instance, has been drier than normal 11 of the past 14 July/Augusts.

Of the last 12 Julys and Augusts, 9 have had .20" or less precip. That's unprecedented, and no other period comes remotely close.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some rich hypocrisy here! 

At least I have a warming climate on my side.   😎

Ya, kind of makes the fact that you ***** about 10x more during our fleeting cool and wet periods/live in constant fear of them even more pathetic 👍 

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, but there's no denying the extreme dryness of July/August lately is highly unusual for the climate.

SEA, for instance, has been drier than normal 11 of the past 14 July/Augusts.

Of the last 12 Julys and Augusts, 9 have had .20" or less precip. That's unprecedented, and no other period comes remotely close.

The only 2 years in the last 12 with .20 or less at SEA in July and August was in 2017 and 2021.   

And in 2014, 2015, and 2019... the July/August period ended up much wetter than normal at SEA.

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16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Of the last 12 Julys and Augusts, 9 have had .20" or less precip. That's unprecedented, and no other period comes remotely close.

I read this again and I think you are just talking about the last 6 years and referring to .20 or less for one of those months (July or August)   Pretty small set of data.   Also... 5 of the last 7 Junes have been wetter than normal at SEA.    So there is an offset that is happening in the summer months.  

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Already looking like a good shot at another round of heat after the late month cool down.  Very disappointing.

The history of La Nina winters that followed exceptional late summer / early autumn heat is ok, but not great.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

82 at 10 with a heat index of 84. Really?! Heat index at 10? 🤮 

SEA is at 83 at 10 p.m.    It sure seems like this will be a night with a rare 70+ low... but its really hard to make it through the 5-7 a.m. period without some kind of significant drop.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The models really underestimated cloud cover effects today.

The forecast high of 96 did seem a little too high today. But I was thinking 92-93 at the lowest. I was really surprised we only got to 86. I love seeing forecast bust, especially highs or lows 10 degrees off. Usually means something unexpected happened. 

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17 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ya, kind of makes the fact that you ***** about 10x more during our fleeting cool and wet periods/live in constant fear of them even more pathetic 👍 

Fleeting?  It was pretty much endless up here for months before the faucet got shut off.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Fleeting?  It was pretty much endless up here for months before the faucet got shut off.

Rain has not been fleeting for the last decade up here.   Just the opposite.    Wettest decade in our history.   

Probably related to an expanding Hadley Cell.

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA is at 83 at 10 p.m.    It sure seems like this will be a night with a rare 70+ low... but its really hard to make it through the 5-7 a.m. period without some kind of significant drop.

I think a 70+ low could happen, but there will probably be some clearing late tonight, and some marine air could make it to SEA before sunrise as well.  It will be close.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is not true.

The only 2 years in the last 12 with .20 or less at SEA in July and August was in 2017 and 2021.   

And in 2014, 2015, and 2019... the July/August period ended up much wetter than normal at SEA.

July and Augusts...the individual months.

Looking at the overall stats should have given away that.

As I said - it's unprecedented and not close.

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

July and Augusts...the individual months.

Looking at the overall stats should have given away that.

I figured it out.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Rain has not been fleeting for the last decade up here.   Just the opposite.    Wettest decade in our history.  

In spite of these wickedly dry summers.  Pretty weird regime.  Summer has always been dry here, but lately they have been parched.

At this point there is simply no reason to think it won't be very wet again this fall, winter, and spring.  I wish something could upset this cycle so we could actually get into a cold /"dry" regime in the winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I read this again and I think you are just talking about the last 6 years and referring to .20 or less for one of those months (July or August)   Pretty small set of data.   Also... 5 of the last 7 Junes have been wetter than normal at SEA.    So there is an offset that is happening in the summer months.  

July-August is the heart of summer. And the dryness observed there, at least at SEA, over the past few years has been extremely unusual.

Not an opinion. 🙂

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

In spite of these wickedly dry summers.  Pretty weird regime.  Summer has always been dry here, but lately they have been parched.

At this point there is simply no reason to think it won't be very wet again this fall, winter, and spring.  I wish something could upset this cycle so we could actually get into a cold /"dry" regime in the winter.

Looking at the SEA historical data... years with annual precip below 40 inches used to be way more common.   It has become more rare in the last 15 years.  

But drier summers and wetter winters are what is expected with a generally warming climate so its probably not going to change any time soon.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

July-August is the heart of summer. And the dryness observed there, at least at SEA, over the past few years has been extremely unusual.

Not an opinion. 🙂

But a wet June helps offset a dry 8-week period that follows.   Also... the last 3 Septembers have been wetter than normal.    

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Rain has not been fleeting for the last decade up here.   Just the opposite.    Wettest decade in our history.   

Probably related to an expanding Hadley Cell.

I don't know about other people, but summer is the time that most people are doing outside activities (unless you live in the desert). I'd rather have the wet season be wet (when I'm already inside vast majority of time) than the dry season be wet.

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

I don't know about other people, but summer is the time that most people are doing outside activities (unless you live in the desert). I'd rather have the wet season be wet (when I'm already inside vast majority of time) than the dry season be wet.

I agree.   But its not like wet periods have been fleeting.  

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45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Out climate history features many July and Augusts with very little rain... even long ago.   And then it starts raining again in the fall and never stops.   One extreme to the other... and I am sure it will happen again.   As usual.

 

35 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, but there's no denying the extreme dryness of July/August lately is highly unusual for the climate.

SEA, for instance, has been drier than normal 11 of the past 14 July/Augusts.

Of the last 12 Julys and Augusts, 9 have had .20" or less precip. That's unprecedented, and no other period comes remotely close.

 

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But a wet June helps offset a dry 8-week period that follows.   Also... the last 3 Septembers have been wetter than normal.    

Friendly reminder of the history of this convo. You started with the focus on July/August.

I pointed out that there is no historical precedent for the dryness those months have seen in recent years. At least at SEA.

Maybe somewhere else?

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

 

 

Friendly reminder of the history of this convo. You started with the focus on July/August.

I pointed out that there is no historical precedent for the dryness those months have seen in recent years. At least at SEA.

Maybe somewhere else?

Fair enough.   Just pointing out that June and September can offset that dryness in the warm season.     

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Jesse and Tim in a bench clearing incident. Not a fight per se but some pitches to dust each other off the plate.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

This is such a pointless argument of semantics that nobody will ever agree on. 

The statistical part is pretty interesting and objective.   Jared made a good point about July and August that I had not noticed.    

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

This is such a pointless argument of semantics that nobody will ever agree on. 

Cool and wet weather is DEFINITELY becoming more common in our region. Makes me want to book a weekend in Othello just to soothe my nerves 

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Cool and wet weather is DEFINITELY becoming more common in our region. Makes me want to book a weekend in Othello just to soothe my nerves 

Wet weather has definitely become more common up here.  Just not in July and August. 

That is one of the other effects of global warming... many places also become wetter in a warmer climate.    Unfortunately that is not true for a large part of the western US.  Just the northern areas.

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

This is such a pointless argument of semantics that nobody will ever agree on. 

Second night of some definitely throwback material. And old Jesse is definitely BACK.

All good signs as sun angles start to drop rapidly!

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The statistical part is pretty interesting and objective.   Jared made a good point about July and August that I had not noticed.    

July and august are definitely getting warmer and drier overall no doubt about it. Becoming a lot more common to go 6-8 weeks without a drop of rain in the mid summer. Summer is typically dry but it’s not usually as extreme as some recent summers. 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Second night of some definitely throwback material. And old Jesse is definitely BACK.

All good signs as sun angles start to drop rapidly!

Hopefully I get banned again soon! Can’t have someone speaking the truth on here too frequently. Lol.

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

July and august are definitely getting warmer and drier overall no doubt about it. Becoming a lot more common to go 6-8 weeks without a drop of rain in the mid summer. Summer is typically dry but it’s not usually as extreme as some recent summers. 

Next summer will probably be more like 2019.   We are due.   Maybe a dry spring and a wet summer?

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Next summer will probably be more like 2019.   We are due.   Maybe a dry spring and a wet summer?

2019 was such a weird year for an El Niño. Historic cold and snow in late winter/early spring followed by a very dry spring…followed by a mildly wet summer then a dry fall. 

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

2019 was such a weird year for an El Niño. Historic cold and snow in late winter/early spring followed by a very dry spring…followed by a mildly wet summer then a dry fall. 

Historically cold late September through late October too. 

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25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think a 70+ low could happen, but there will probably be some clearing late tonight, and some marine air could make it to SEA before sunrise as well.  It will be close.

It was 70 for the low at BFI last night while it was 68 at SEA. Already a lot warmer tonight but it should be dependent on the marine push later on tonight into the early morning hours. The heat advisory is set to expire. 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

2019 was such a weird year for an El Niño. Historic cold and snow in late winter/early spring followed by a very dry spring…followed by a mildly wet summer then a dry fall. 

Yeah... if we have a developing Nino next summer then I suspect it might be significantly wetter than this summer even if it's still warmer than normal.

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Historically cold late September through late October too. 

Overall probably one of my favorite years for weather. Lots of interesting anomalies that year. February through early March was amazing, absolutely loved that summer with consistent precipitation and lots of convection in late august and early September. October was pretty special too. After that it got pretty meh lol. 

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53 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ya, kind of makes the fact that you ***** about 10x more during our fleeting cool and wet periods/live in constant fear of them even more pathetic 👍 

Holy crap you responded to Tim! I don't even remember the last time you quoted him. 🤣

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