Jump to content

August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


Recommended Posts

19 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

just saw this today. 

 

 

One thing going for this upcoming winter is that, as opposed to the late 90s/early 2000s Ninas, we are in a predominantly +NP phase. Essentially, this just means that pressure patterns over the North Pacific are higher, leading to more blocking in that region.

ebetb.jpg

 

  • Like 5

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The low temps have been mentioned on here, but it's a real thing. Low temps have warmed dramatically over the past couple of decades. Really in all seasons, though I would say February-May has seen a slower warming of lows. During the past decade our first freeze has moved on average from the end of September to mid-October. 

Here's how much average low temps changed from the 1961-90 averages to 1981-2010 averages. They don't have the 1991-2020 averages on WRCC, unfortunately, and 1981-2010 are missing for OLM and PDX.

SLE: +1.5

EUG: -1.8

SEA: +.4

  • Like 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Our record for consecutive +60 lows was 5 until the big heatwave in June of last year…when we had 7 in a row. We then tied that number again this year in late July-early august. 

I was way off.  I also had 7 60+ lows last June 26th thru July 2nd.  I think I've tried to remove that stretch of weather from my memory.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Here's how much average low temps changed from the 1961-90 averages to 1981-2010 averages. They don't have the 1991-2020 averages on WRCC, unfortunately, and 1981-2010 are missing for OLM and PDX.

SLE: +1.5

EUG: -1.8

SEA: +.4

Interesting. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

The stratospheric cooling occurs because “GHG” molecules augment radiative cooling at that altitude, which is above the altitude of the graybody emission temperature. The amount of outgoing LWIR doesn’t change in bulk above that.

Basically the H2O molecules are colliding with other molecules in the stratosphere, some of which (such as O2 and O3) absorb strongly in UV and higher frequencies, and since H2O has a broader emission spectra, upon collision/excitation it helps radiatively cool that airmass. It’s not that LWIR is prevented from reaching the stratosphere, it’s that the stratosphere becomes a more efficient emitter.

Obviously the equation changes once at the surface/lower troposphere since the surface cools primarily via LWIR emission, and an increasingly IR opaque atmosphere above effectively reduces its bulk emissivity (though it’s actually a bit more complicated than that, since the extra thermalization takes place in the mid/upper troposphere unless the surface is very cold).

So stratospheric cooling associated w/ Tonga's eruption is more likely associated with exothermic reactions between H2O and O2/O3, rather than reduced IR emissions from the troposphere below? Is that right?

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some rain at the end of the GFS run. It's coming, but we will just have to wait. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’d bet next week ends up pretty warm and ridgy overall.  

Maybe... but 12Z GEFS is actually farther east with the trough next week than its 00Z run so it trended in the opposite direction as the operational run.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Wildfire smoke is still pretty minimal across the region. 

G18_sector_pnw_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20220822-1349.gif

Wonder if the general SW flow / higher humidity pattern is what’s stopping another Bootleg or Dixie fire from popping up this year.

CA is only at 198k acres burned so far. Obviously there’s still a lot of fire season to go but this year is nowhere near as bad as the last two. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Wonder if the general SW flow / higher humidity pattern is what’s stopping another Bootleg or Dixie fire from popping up this year.

CA is only at 190k acres burned so far. Obviously there’s still a lot of fire season to go but this year is nowhere near as bad as the last two. 

Probably the higher humidity and the wetter spring combo. We were set up for lots of fires and smoke the last 2 years. Summer also started a bit later this year as well. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Per usual I have been monitoring the CFS monthlies. They fluctuate pretty wildly, but overall a signal for a very mild and wet December, very wet in California too. And cooler in February and March.  

  • Snow 1
  • Troll 1
  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

One of the most potent ones (far more potent than CO₂) in fact. The rub is that H₂O vapor exists in equilibrium with liquid water and is part of a short-term cycle, so it functions as a dependent variable and not an independent one like CO₂. What happens is that more CO₂ causes a very modest amount of warming which causes more evaporation which increases water vapor which causes more warming (which then causes more evaporation, lather, rinse, repeat). Figuring out how that positive feedback plays out is not exactly easy and is a big part of why different climate models disagree about how much warming will happen as a result of anthropogenic CO₂.

I strongly disagree with that. The amount of H2O in the atmosphere (and where precisely it is concentrated) varies in accordance with changes to internal heat flows (such as w/ ENSO) and wind-augmented evaporation at the sea surface (both annular modes and ENSO modulate tropical wind speeds).

And this doesn’t get into latent heat absorption/release, albedo of clouds/ice, etc. Gets very messy. Point is, H2O is by itself not just one but a series of state dependent (and independent) variables. In fact it’s the fabric through which all climate change occurs.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I strongly disagree with that. The amount of H2O in the atmosphere (and where precisely it is concentrated) varies in accordance with changes to internal heat flows (such as w/ ENSO) and wind-augmented evaporation at the sea surface (both annular modes and ENSO modulate tropical wind speeds).

With respect to other greenhouse gases, water vapor is a dependent variable. Better?

  • Like 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Per usual I have been monitoring the CFS monthlies. They fluctuate pretty wildly, but overall a signal for a very mild and wet December, very wet in California too. And cooler in February and March.  

I’ve been expecting this season to be bad for smoke. So far, it has not been, but there is still time to go (and models are starting to agree about a warm and dry September). I would not mind at all seeing my expectation dashed.

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

With respect to other greenhouse gases, water vapor is a dependent variable. Better?

Still disagree with that.

In fact it’s historically been the other way around, where outgassing of CO^2 is largely a function of ocean temperatures, which are dependent on a slew of factors whose equilibria are both internally and externally perturbed.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Still disagree with that.

In fact it’s historically been the other way around, where outgassing of CO^2 is largely a function of ocean temperatures, which are dependent on a slew of factors whose equilibria are both internally and externally perturbed.

Sorry, I have followed the literature, and it is pretty much universally accepted that an overall warmer atmosphere will contain more water vapor.

The only serious arguments are about how much more.

  • Like 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Sorry, I have followed the literature, and it is pretty much universally accepted that an overall warmer atmosphere will contain more water vapor.

The only serious arguments are about how much more.

Correct. But that doesn’t render H2O a dependent variable relative to other GHGes. Its concentration is dependent on numerous state-dependent factors, not just CO2 driven warming (hence the uncertainty you referenced).

In fact, a majority of the projected warming (plus a good chunk of future CO2 increases) arise via (modeled) increases H2O concentration and resultant ocean warming/outgassing.

Of course there is good reason to be skeptical of the modeled positive feedback loops. GCMs do not accurately or adequately simulate clouds or long term changes to circulation/heat transports, all of which have massive implications for climate sensitivity and the transient response.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’d trade next week for a decent long weekend. Do I have a choice?  

We don't have a choice!  

But you can always travel to find better weather.   👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TT-SEA said:

We don't have a choice!  

But you can always travel to find better weather.   👍

Not all of us 😞

  • Sad 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

So stratospheric cooling associated w/ Tonga's eruption is more likely associated with exothermic reactions between H2O and O2/O3, rather than reduced IR emissions from the troposphere below? Is that right?

Yeah basically. H2O helps radiatively cool the stratosphere. All of the excess H2O associated with the Tonga eruption is in the stratosphere, not the troposphere.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Wonder if the general SW flow / higher humidity pattern is what’s stopping another Bootleg or Dixie fire from popping up this year.

CA is only at 198k acres burned so far. Obviously there’s still a lot of fire season to go but this year is nowhere near as bad as the last two. 

Fire season could realistically be over for most of the PNW in a couple of weeks. Most years that's the case.

CA, of course, whole different ballgame. 

  • Excited 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, Phil said:

Correct. But that doesn’t render H2O a dependent variable relative to other GHGes. Its concentration is dependent on numerous state-dependent factors, not just CO2 driven warming (hence the uncertainty you referenced).

Actually — yes it does. GHG’s promote warming, and warming promotes an increased amount of water vapor in the atmosphere.

It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

At 12:30, today's high is already soaring past the 82º forecast by the GFS, the Euro, and the NWS all 3. Unlike at Jim's location, around here both model guidance and NWS forecasts always seem to aim low.

Up to 78°F here, which means our high is likely to come in warmer than forecast, too.

It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wouldn't it be something if we scored another bonus 90?!

  • Excited 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

84 in North Bend and 83 up here.   Only 76 at SEA.   Most days this summer have been significantly warmer out here than at SEA.

Another point to make on the GFS output for SEA is that while it might run warm there... the SEA output generally works quite well out here in my area and for most of the EPSL.   So I don't notice the warm bias too much because what the GFS shows for SEA is generally what actually happens here.

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

jubilation

image.thumb.png.529f83bbb96ad757795eaffc6730b4a7.png

Would this be an Omega pattern?

Also from trying to read these maps, my understanding is that blues and purples lead to colder temperatures because of the lower pressure departure from normal? And same with the oranges and reds leading to hotter temps cause of higher pressure?

  • Like 1

𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...