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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yeah, but isn’t that typical? Less marine influence.

Depends on the pattern.   Average high temp out here and at SEA are very close in the summer.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Depends on the pattern.   Average high temp out here and at SEA are very close in the summer.

Interesting. I could see elevation and rainfall helping your locale be cooler at times, but North Bend itself is low enough that I would expect it to be warmer as a rule. I know it’s often warmer during warm, sunny, spells; I have experienced that myself.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Actually — yes it does. GHG’s promote warming, and warming promotes an increased amount of water vapor in the atmosphere.

GHGes such as H2O?

I don’t think you understand what “dependent variable” means.

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37 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Would this be an Omega pattern?

Also from trying to read these maps, my understanding is that blues and purples lead to colder temperatures because of the lower pressure departure from normal? And same with the oranges and reds leading to hotter temps cause of higher pressure?

500mb heights are pretty much the gold standard because they are at/near the “middle” of the atmosphere. Like Eujanga said, it’s basically pressure relationship at a certain level of the atmosphere.

Higher heights means a more significant disparity between temperatures at the surface compared to around 18,000 ASL. It’s indicative of descending air, air molecules start crashing into one another and they generate heat. This descending air inhibits cloud cover, all things being equal.

Conversely, lower heights are indicative of lift in the atmosphere, more clouds/precip and cooler temperatures. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yes; with water vapor there is a feedback effect. As I noted earlier today.

Then it not a dependent variable. Because the warming itself is induced by H2O.

Come on man this is straightforward stuff.

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

500mb heights are pretty much the gold standard because they are at/near the “middle” of the atmosphere. Like Eujanga said, it’s basically pressure relationship at a certain level of the atmosphere.

Higher heights means a more significant disparity between temperatures at the surface compared to around 18,000 ASL. It’s indicative of descending air, air molecules start crashing into one another and they generate heat. This descending air inhibits cloud cover, all things being equal.

Conversely, lower heights are indicative of lift in the atmosphere, more clouds/precip and cooler temperatures. 

Ah I see, that makes a lot of sense, thank you. 

𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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I was also today years old when I found out ASL (hopefully) means "above sea level" and not "age sex location".

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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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9 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

I was also today years old when I found out ASL (hopefully) means "above sea level" and not "age sex location".

Back before it became the king of the hill this forum was pretty much the Tinder of the west.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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43 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Up to 84º here. 90º is well within reach.

Who’s it gonna be today?

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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38 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Interesting. I could see elevation and rainfall helping your locale be cooler at times, but North Bend itself is low enough that I would expect it to be warmer as a rule. I know it’s often warmer during warm, sunny, spells; I have experienced that myself.

It is. Long term average there has high temps over a degree warmer in the summer than SEA. 

And that includes all sorts of patterns.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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3 minutes ago, Chris said:

Exception being inversions.

Definitely. 500mb analysis is entirely a “free air” exercise.

Even beside low level temperature inversions, there’s often an inverse relationship with regard to surface pressure. Strong Arctic highs and thermal lows…

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

That part gets confusing to me sometimes...

Same. I talk about what I know about weather to my family and they get so confused. Then I realize that I still know so little about it. Things like this and the math aspect of things are just so elusive to me and I’m not very smart.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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8 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

That part gets confusing to me sometimes...

Same here. I can drive my nerdiness a little nutty sometimes. My linear brain wants to think that with strong subsidence, why wouldn’t that carry all the way to the surface? But then again, heat rises and creates buoyancy in the lower atmosphere, especially with the diurnal swings. And on it goes…..

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Good news is that it's a just quick cool down. :)

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1661169600-1662120000-1662465600-10.gif

But how many subsequent systems aren’t being picked up by the ensemble mean? ;) 

That actually looks like a fit to the EOF for the pacific transition pattern.

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We’ve officially hit the 90F-burger!

0D148CD9-AE68-4407-8CC0-C4B60380534F.webp

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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13 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We’ve officially hit the 90F-burger!

0D148CD9-AE68-4407-8CC0-C4B60380534F.webp

BONUS 90!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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WILDFIRE UPDATE  (Lighting Lights Up Oregon Edition)

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/22/22  

Washington - 7 (7 new fires today.  Lightning went to town on the Blue Mountains AGAIN in the SE corner of the state, east of Walla Walla. Most of the new fires created in the past 48hrs have either been contained, put out, or are under and acre in size still. Only two fires remain from the cluster created yesterday. There are four large fires in the state. The total decreases from 44 to 42.) Total: 42

Oregon - 46 (46 new fires in the state. This couldn't have been worse as lightning has taken it's toll across the Blue and Wallowa Mountains in NE Oregon. There are too many fires for crews to respond to at once, but they have begin taking out these small burns before they grow.  Most are in remote, hard to access areas that are very dry.  Winds are not helping the matter. Good news exists in that most other fires in the state have pretty much been dealt with.  The focus outside of the four large fires in the state are now these new blazes in the NE.  Hopefully many of these will not spread. The total number of fires explodes from 36 to 70.) Total: 70

Idaho - 14 (14 new fires in the state today after a previous week of big increases for the Gem State. There are now four large fires in the state, one up from yesterday.  This new one will hopefully be put out soon as it is fast spreading, but mainly through brush land.  This new Doubletapp Fire has already consumed 100 acres and is outside of the Boise Metro near Kuna. The total number of fires grows from 51 to 53.) Total: 53

California - 17 (17 new fires in the state of California. One of the new fires is a fast moving fire within Cleveland National Forest and it has plenty of fuel to spread  It was sparked today from unknown causes at the moment but crews have been rushed to the location to stop it from spreading.  There are five large fires in the state. The total drops from 61 fires to 51 today. ) Total: 51

British Columbia - 47 (47 new blazes in the past 24hrs.  We continue to monitor the lightning sparked fires around Revelstoke.  Crews have made a sizable dent to the fires around Revelstoke, mainly focusing on closer fires to the south.  All the fires north of the city remain and many have increased in size since yesterday.  As of right now, BC has over 50% of known fires listed as out of control or new blazes.  28% of fires are under control and 16% of being held. The total amount of fires remains at 199.) Total: 199

Who Has had The Most Amount of Fires (Ranked by days in which they've had the most fires, only counting days we've kept track here.)

1. British Columbia - 29 days with the most wildfires

2. Oregon - 2 days with the most wildfires.

SMOKE UPDATE

From the tip of western Neah Bay to the eastern reaches of Liberty Lake, the entirety of Washington State is seeing no smoke at lower levels and good, clean air quality for the entire state.  Chelan County may see degrading air quality by Tuesday.  The rest of the state should be pretty good for the next few days.

After a smokey day for much of Oregon yesterday, onshore winds have pushed much of the smoke away.  Dangerous or hazardous levels of smoke pollution is currently trapped within the Rogue Valley and Grants Pass specifically.  This smoke will eventually have to go somewhere, but as of this moment, this is a localized incident due to a new nearby fire. California wildfire smoke is actually not effecting Oregon today including Medford and Klamath Falls. Portland and Western Oregon is clear otherwise.  La Pine and Sunriver are seeing some isolated smoke from a blaze near Waldo Lake.  Beyond that, Bend is clear.  Expect conditions to deteriorate within the Wallowa Valley due to a rash of new fires and conditions could get smokey for Pendleton, La Grande, and Baker City, in the coming 24hrs. 

Smoke has continued to blow east sparing much of Idaho's panhandle today.  Beside's the city of Salmon, the state is in the clear from low flying smoke. 

Western Montana is under heavy to moderate smoke with lower air quality conditions. After Helena, air is clean throughout the eastern half of the state.

Smoke will likely become and issue for the Bay Area and Inland Empire in the coming days as winds will shift southward. For today, smoke is mostly around Redding to Chico and not much beyond that boundary.  Some air pollution is effecting eastern portions of the LA Metro.

Air quality in Lower Mainland is clear. Locations near fires are seeing moderate to unhealthy conditions especially in deep valleys. 

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It was forecasted to hit 76F here today but we topped out at 74F.  It has dropped down to 71F.  Stations near me read as high as 74F and as low as 68F.  Cool onshore air, and beautiful blue sky today. No haze, no smoke, no nothing.  I noticed the colors today have shifted into a more blue pattern, which is always a sign of autumn... or cooler weather.  lol 

Screen Shot 2022-08-22 at 5.59.44 PM.png

DSCN1229.JPG

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26 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

 

WILDFIRE UPDATE  (Lighting Lights Up Oregon Edition)

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/21/22  

Washington - 7 (7 new fires today.  Lightning went to town on the Blue Mountains AGAIN in the SE corner of the state, east of Walla Walla. Most of the new fires created in the past 48hrs have either been contained, put out, or are under and acre in size still. Only two fires remain from the cluster created yesterday. There are four large fires in the state. The total decreases from 44 to 42.) Total: 42

Oregon - 46 (46 new fires in the state. This couldn't have been worse as lightning has taken it's toll across the Blue and Wallowa Mountains in NE Oregon. There are too many fires for crews to respond to at once, but they have begin taking out these small burns before they grow.  Most are in remote, hard to access areas that are very dry.  Winds are not helping the matter. Good news exists in that most other fires in the state have pretty much been dealt with.  The focus outside of the four large fires in the state are now these new blazes in the NE.  Hopefully many of these will not spread. The total number of fires explodes from 36 to 70.) Total: 70

Idaho - 14 (14 new fires in the state today after a previous week of big increases for the Gem State. There are now four large fires in the state, one up from yesterday.  This new one will hopefully be put out soon as it is fast spreading, but mainly through brush land.  This new Doubletapp Fire has already consumed 100 acres and is outside of the Boise Metro near Kuna. The total number of fires grows from 51 to 53.) Total: 53

California - 17 (17 new fires in the state of California. One of the new fires is a fast moving fire within Cleveland National Forest and it has plenty of fuel to spread  It was sparked today from unknown causes at the moment but crews have been rushed to the location to stop it from spreading.  There are five large fires in the state. The total drops from 61 fires to 51 today. ) Total: 51

British Columbia - 47 (47 new blazes in the past 24hrs.  We continue to monitor the lightning sparked fires around Revelstoke.  Crews have made a sizable dent to the fires around Revelstoke, mainly focusing on closer fires to the south.  All the fires north of the city remain and many have increased in size since yesterday.  As of right now, BC has over 50% of known fires listed as out of control or new blazes.  28% of fires are under control and 16% of being held. The total amount of fires remains at 199.) Total: 199

Who Has had The Most Amount of Fires (Ranked by days in which they've had the most fires, only counting days we've kept track here.)

1. British Columbia - 29 days with the most wildfires

2. Oregon - 2 days with the most wildfires.

SMOKE UPDATE

From the tip of western Neah Bay to the eastern reaches of Liberty Lake, the entirety of Washington State is seeing no smoke at lower levels and good, clean air quality for the entire state.  Chelan County may see degrading air quality by Tuesday.  The rest of the state should be pretty good for the next few days.

After a smokey day for much of Oregon yesterday, onshore winds have pushed much of the smoke away.  Dangerous or hazardous levels of smoke pollution is currently trapped within the Rogue Valley and Grants Pass specifically.  This smoke will eventually have to go somewhere, but as of this moment, this is a localized incident due to a new nearby fire. California wildfire smoke is actually not effecting Oregon today including Medford and Klamath Falls. Portland and Western Oregon is clear otherwise.  La Pine and Sunriver are seeing some isolated smoke from a blaze near Waldo Lake.  Beyond that, Bend is clear.  Expect conditions to deteriorate within the Wallowa Valley due to a rash of new fires and conditions could get smokey for Pendleton, La Grande, and Baker City, in the coming 24hrs. 

Smoke has continued to blow east sparing much of Idaho's panhandle today.  Beside's the city of Salmon, the state is in the clear from low flying smoke. 

Western Montana is under heavy to moderate smoke with lower air quality conditions. After Helena, air is clean throughout the eastern half of the state.

Smoke will likely become and issue for the Bay Area and Inland Empire in the coming days as winds will shift southward. For today, smoke is mostly around Redding to Chico and not much beyond that boundary.  Some air pollution is effecting eastern portions of the LA Metro.

Air quality in Lower Mainland is clear. Locations near fires are seeing moderate to unhealthy conditions especially in deep valleys. 

How did CA drop from 61 to 51 if there were 17 new fires?

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