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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s a rounding issue since readings are converted from celsius. The actual high was 89°F.

My obs are from Springfield which had all of its PWS reach 90F yesterday. We tend to run warmer than the airport.

We actually had the same number of 90F+ days as the airport until yesterday.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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SLE had 5 90 degree readings on its 5min obs yesterday, but officially only hit 89. Let's take a win when we get it folks. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wow, no hope of besting (or would “worsting” be a better term?) that record this year.

Mercifully we should avoid approaching the linebackers and centers.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

SLE had 5 90 degree readings on its 5min obs yesterday, but officially only hit 89. Let's take a win when we get it folks. 

Could have been a high of, say, 31.8°C, which would round to 32°C on 5min obs but actually converts to 89.24°F.

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Hmmmm... I just noticed July 2022 came in at the 3rd warmest all time at SLE just behind 2021 and 2015. 

August is at 72.3 through yesterday. Which is behind 2017 and 2014. And at this pace would tie last year's #. I'll work on some projections...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmmm... I just noticed July 2022 came in at the 3rd warmest all time at SLE just behind 2021 and 2015. 

August is at 72.3 through yesterday. Which is behind 2017 and 2014. And at this pace would tie last year's #. I'll work on some projections...

Earlier it was looking like PDX would easily make the warmest month on record but the heat has been toned down a bit towards the end of the month.

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmmm... I just noticed July 2022 came in at the 3rd warmest all time at SLE just behind 2021 and 2015. 

August is at 72.3 through yesterday. Which is behind 2017 and 2014. And at this pace would tie last year's #. I'll work on some projections...

Looks like most stations in SW BC are on pace for a record August.  We will have to see how much the weekend cool down knocks back the means. 

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Right now if we go with the NWS forecast, SLE would be at 72.6 through the 29th. That would put them just ahead of 2014 and within striking distance of 2017. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Through July SLE was running -1.4 per month cooler than 2021, which was their 2nd warmest year in their 1892-present period of record. SLE was well above average in September and November last year, and just slightly above average in October and December. So if we can keep it just slightly above normal the rest of the year we should avoid a top 5 finish. Thank you April and May!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 hours ago, HoodCanalBridge said:

Crisp morning down in fire camp this morning at Diamond Lake, Oregon.

AB738BC2-1880-4989-96AE-EEEFB75EDE83.jpeg

Never been to Diamond Lake. It’s very close to the Crater Lake north entrance though. Wondering if it’s worth the trip from Bend/Sunriver.

Also have to go to Toketee Falls which is also close to Crater Lake.

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Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Never been to Diamond Lake. It’s very close to the Crater Lake north entrance though. Wondering if it’s worth the trip from Bend/Sunriver.

Also have to go to Toketee Falls which is also close to Crater Lake.

I tried to get a reservation to go camping there but you can’t camp at any of the campsites near the lake after September 7th apparently. 

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

I tried to get a reservation to go camping there but you can’t camp at any of the campsites near the lake after September 7th apparently. 

Oh that's strange. I do know sometimes they will allow camping in the campgrounds after they are officially closed, there are just no hookups for RV'ers or restrooms available. We have done that at Trillium Lake by Mt. Hood and Ollallie Lake by Mt. Jefferson over the years. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh that's strange. I do know sometimes they will allow camping in the campgrounds after they are officially closed, there are just no hookups for RV'ers or restrooms available. We have done that at Trillium Lake by Mt. Hood and Ollallie Lake by Mt. Jefferson over the years. 

Yeah I’m sure we could technically do it but decided to just reserve a spot at crescent lake just to be safe. It’s kind of annoying how the camping reservations system works unfortunately…last year when I went down to a few spots in Oregon the campgrounds were fully reserved online but every campground I went too was less than half full. I’m sure it’ll be the same when I go in 2 weeks. 

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5 hours ago, Phil said:

Nice write-up there.

Only qualm I have is 1999/00 and 2000/01 were left out of the analog pool. Crazy to exclude those in favor of weak sauce niña winters like 2005/06 and 2016/17.

Larry Cosgrove is hype up about the fall winter  and he not one that tends to talk in strong terms very much.no doubt it been a unusal pattern.It will prove interisting to see what happens.I got to give Cosgrove some due for going against the high end hurricane forecasts he was one of the lowest out there.Ironically even he may be to high.And his summer forecasts was spot on as well.

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah I’m sure we could technically do it but decided to just reserve a spot at crescent lake just to be safe. It’s kind of annoying how the camping reservations system works unfortunately…last year when I went down to a few spots in Oregon the campgrounds were fully reserved online but every campground I went too was less than half full. I’m sure it’ll be the same when I go in 2 weeks. 

Yeah the reservation system and the wilderness permitting system are whack. I had to make reservations for a couple short hike/backpacks in the Mt. Jefferson and Three Sisters Wilderness areas this summer about 6 months in advance and as a result won't actually end up getting to go on at least one of them because of some work commitments that came up. I read they had a 70% no show rate last summer. Guess it gives the wilderness some space to heal though, but it stinks for anyone who just wants to go for a day hike on a random Wednesday. One of my favorite times to hike in the Cascades though is in late September and October and that is outside the permit window for a lot of places, so that is nice. Who knows if/when my favorite trail will ever re-open, it burned in 2017 AND 2020. :(

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah I’m sure we could technically do it but decided to just reserve a spot at crescent lake just to be safe. It’s kind of annoying how the camping reservations system works unfortunately…last year when I went down to a few spots in Oregon the campgrounds were fully reserved online but every campground I went too was less than half full. I’m sure it’ll be the same when I go in 2 weeks. 

I hate that… have to reserve WAAAAAAY in advance, removes all spontaneity, and you’re f*cked if the weather doesn’t cooperate. On a lark last month I went camping near Harrison Lake w/o a reservation. Was prepared to do dispersed camping if the campground was full but I lucked out and there were several no-shows so I had my choice of spots.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I hate that… have to reserve WAAAAAAY in advance, removes all spontaneity, and you’re f*cked if the weather doesn’t cooperate. On a lark last month I went camping near Harrison Lake w/o a reservation. Was prepared to do dispersed camping if the campground was full but I lucked out and there were several no-shows so I had my choice of spots.

Yeah I’m hoping for some no shows to get some better camping spots. The ones I booked a couple months ago are decent but not right on the lakes…last year I was able to just get some better spots with no shows. My last night at little lava lake last year on a night that was supposed to be 90% reserved up I was the only person there which was a little spooky lol. 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah the reservation system and the wilderness permitting system are whack. I had to make reservations for a couple short hike/backpacks in the Mt. Jefferson and Three Sisters Wilderness areas this summer about 6 months in advance and as a result won't actually end up getting to go on at least one of them because of some work commitments that came up. I read they had a 70% no show rate last summer. Guess it gives the wilderness some space to heal though, but it stinks for anyone who just wants to go for a day hike on a random Wednesday. One of my favorite times to hike in the Cascades though is in late September and October and that is outside the permit window for a lot of places, so that is nice. Who knows if/when my favorite trail will ever re-open, it burned in 2017 AND 2020. :(

Yeah I went in late September last year to the three sisters wilderness and mount bachelor right after a decent snowstorm on the 19th. Had an absolute blast with almost nobody around. It’s very frustrating that so many people reserve campsites then just cancel them the day before and just no show. Hopefully it works in my favor this year again though. 

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3 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

That really just depends. CA's biggest rainmakers can come from several different scenarios. 

Most often it's either from enhanced subtropical jet activity in stronger El Ninos (1982-83 and 1997-98 being prime examples) or from consistent northern stream jet suppression leading to intense baroclinic zone activity (2016-17, 1996-97, 1992-93, and 1968-69 being examples). Many of those seasons, even the warmer ones, were sufficiently wet for our region and some of them extremely so.

Occasionally you'll also see steroidal rex block driven split flow bring high precip totals to CA (2000-01) which when coupled with El Nino driven STJ action can bring really high end results for them (2004-05 and 1940-41 being examples). Those cases are the bad ones for our region where we end up in severe drought. Which given our perma-heat summers now are a bad option for us. I don't know that we can easily afford a winter like 2000-01 nowadays since getting another summer as cool as 2001 increasingly seems like a pipe dream (and even that coolish summer had some bad fire activity).

That was a really good write up. How was 2010-2011 in the PNW? It was one of the all time winters for much of California. I keep seeing that Analog come up for this winter as well. 

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3 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

That winter was pretty good for virtually everyone outside of this region. November-December was the coldest on record nationally and the inversions at least kept parts of the interior NW in solid snowcover for much of the winter. The SW made out well too, especially in February.

The Puget Sound region at least did okay in mid February with an overnight snowstorm on the 16th. I was actually in Port Angeles that weekend and there was a pretty healthy 7-8" that hung around for a bit. Melted a lot faster in Seattle, though.

2000-2001 was a total turd for the Sierra. No moisture at all until Feb. I think it was Reno's all time driest winter as well. 

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4 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

Winter 2010-2011

201102_pnw_cl (1).png

201102_sw_cl (1).png

201102_pnw_cl.png

201102_sw_cl.png

Yeah.... Most of December was pretty meh, and the last half of January and first half of February were a lot like this past winter. I would say overall 2010-11 and 2021-22 were fairly similar. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah.... Most of December was pretty meh, and the last half of January and first half of February were a lot like this past winter. I would say overall 2010-11 and 2021-22 were fairly similar. 

December 2010

201012_pnw_cl.png

201012_sw_cl.png

201012_pnw_cl (1).png

201012_sw_cl (1).png

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Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft

Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft

☥𓂀✡️

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Has anybody else not left their state of residence since 2018? I haven’t left Oregon since May of 2018 and that’s the longest amount of time I’ve ever gone without leaving the state I lived in.

  • Weenie 2

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Has anybody else not left their state of residence since 2018? I haven’t left Oregon since May of 2018 and that’s the longest amount of time I’ve ever gone without leaving the state I lived in.

I don’t think I’ve left BC since 2014. 

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3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I don’t think I’ve left BC since 2014. 

In all fairness BC is larger than Oregon, WA, and CA put together. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I don’t think I’ve left BC since 2014. 

Makes sense esp in far west BC. Unless you’re flying, then driving even to Alberta has gotta take a long time.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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