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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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19 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The consistently mild lows this summer have gotten to the point of next level crazy. For places that record an all time warm August or month in general, the warm lows will have played a big role in boosting the numbers.

Yeah we could potentially break our record for +60 lows for the second year in a row. We set a record of 18 last year…at 17 as of this morning. 
 We also had never had more than 5 consecutive +60 lows until the June heatwave last year when we had 7 in a row. We also tied that number again during the late July heatwave. 

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Just now, Cloud said:

We've seen this before but I thought the temps output shown are quite reasonable. The GFS is showing some nice cloud coverage but the mesoscales however, are not really showing that deepening of cloud cover and we'll get some thin clouds by 2pm. If this is the case, I think mid-70s are doable. 

floop-gfs-2022082512.cloudcover.us_state_wa.gif

floop-nam4km-2022082506.cloudcover.us_state_wa.gif

The rare midday marine push. Usually delays until after peak heating hours in Portland.

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think the next El Niño is more likely to be a dud. We do have descending +QBO this fall/winter on the inclining portion of the solar cycle, which is historically a strong -PNA/cold west signal for DJF.

However, huge wild card: How will the PV respond to the massive load of stratospheric H2O? In theory that could either single handedly ruin winter for the middle latitudes, or it could invigorate that mass circulation and force a -NAO type response.

Tough one to forecast.

So it could be really good or really bad...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Definitely noticing the changing sun angles now. Big difference between when I left on 7/31 and returned 3+ weeks later.

As usual, though, mother nature ain’t getting the memo. Same old drumbeat of 90+ days and 70+ nights.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Definitely noticing the changing sun angles now. Big difference between when I left on 7/31 and returned 3+ weeks later.

As usual, though, mother nature ain’t getting the memo. Same old drumbeat of 90+ days and 70+ nights.

Today will be Portland's last sunset after 8pm of the year. :( I don't necessarily like summer, but the longer days are nice. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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21 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think the next El Niño is more likely to be a dud. We do have descending +QBO this fall/winter on the inclining portion of the solar cycle, which is historically a strong -PNA/cold west signal for DJF.

However, huge wild card: How will the PV respond to the massive load of stratospheric H2O? In theory that could either single handedly ruin winter for the middle latitudes, or it could invigorate that mass circulation and force a -NAO type response.

Tough one to forecast.

Sounds like you’re already setting the groundwork for being way off again but claiming victory either way ;) 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So it could be really good or really bad...

Lol yup. I have no idea what to expect right now. Will get a better idea when the PV starts to strengthen and ASM backs off.

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Sounds like you’re already setting the groundwork for being way off again but claiming victory either way ;) 

To be wrong I’d have to make a prediction first. ;) 

Feel free to share your ideas.

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The stratospheric polar vortex has officially woken up from its summer slumber. 10mb/60N zonal wind is now westerly/cyclonic.

Here we go!

621DA107-646D-49A0-9F50-766B1F089375.jpeg

 

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My track record is pretty good for seasonal forecasts. Though I whiffed on January last year. We'll see, I'm not saying I am out on this winter, but there are definitely some concerning signals developing. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My track record is pretty good for seasonal forecasts. Though I whiffed on January last year. We'll see, I'm not saying I am out on this winter, but there are definitely some concerning signals developing. 

Aside from a few weeks in January, this winter is going to suck ballz. Take it to the bank.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Aside from a few weeks in January, this winter is going to suck ballz. Take it to the bank.

A few weeks in January sounds like a big window... that could make it a great winter regardless of what happens in the other months. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I feel like I lack the hubris to attempt a seasonal forecast 

Well with that attitude humanity would still be in the dark ages.

Being wrong is nothing to fear. 🤓 Over 99% of all proposed scientific hypotheses have been disproven, but 100% of our progress has stemmed from that < 1% which were correct.

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well with that attitude humanity would still be in the dark ages.

Being wrong is nothing to fear. 🤓 Over 99% of all proposed scientific hypotheses have been disproven, but 100% of our progress has stemmed from that < 1% which were correct.

 

I can tell you what I’m hoping for. Wet and active with some good mountain snows. And maybe a few fun windows for the lowlands.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well with that attitude humanity would still be in the dark ages.

Being wrong is nothing to fear. 🤓 Over 99% of all proposed scientific hypotheses have been disproven, but 100% of our progress has stemmed from that < 1% which were correct.

 

Any success with our seasonal forecasts just comes down to luck on guessing.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I can tell you what I’m hoping for. Wet and active with some good mountain snows. And maybe a few fun windows for the lowlands.

A nice cold inversion period at some point would be nice too. Seems like it’s been awhile since we’ve seen that. Inversions are really our best bet for sustained cold and wintery feeling weather these days.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like one of our favorite spots on the Rogue River is on fire this morning. Can pretty much count on losing a place absolutely dear to me just about every season now.

Where is that? The Rum Creek Fire on the lower Rogue or a new one? The upper Rogue is absolutely gorgeous and one of the last river basins in the Cascades that hasn't torched in the last few years... I think about that a lot. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Most of our winters are only a 3-5 day window for snow/cold once a year anyways. 

February 2021 is a prime example of that. That winter completely sucked outside of those 3-4 days. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I can tell you what I’m hoping for. Wet and active with some good mountain snows. And maybe a few fun windows for the lowlands.

That's a good goal, and probably doable. The last thing I think any of us want is the seemingly annual 4-6 week suck fest that doesn't even feature cold inversions. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Where is that? The Rum Creek Fire on the lower Rogue or a new one? The upper Rogue is absolutely gorgeous and one of the last river basins in the Cascades that hasn't torched in the last few years... I think about that a lot. 

It’s the Rum Creek. Have some great memories of camping with my dad and brother down by Graves Creek in the early 2000’s. Pretty awesome stretch of river. Judging by the amount of dead trees last time we were down there in 2018 I figured it was just a matter of time before that area burned though. Maybe we can manage to lose the entire Wild Rogue wilderness before the fall rains come.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Nothing is being lost... fire is a part of the ecosystem.   It just may not look the way you want it to look during our very short time on this planet.   We want everything to be perfect during our time here.  But nature doesn't care about our short window of time.    Its on a much, much longer time scale.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I think another late start to winter. I notice the Decembers with above average snowfall don't happen twice in a row at my old area. Late winter needs to be a tad wetter through, February since 2020 has been leaving southern Oregon high and dry in the snow department. Even March too.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

People who mostly value material possessions and status symbols in our society can’t relate with the pain of losing a place.

I can certainly relate. I grew up hiking and fishing in the Opal Creek area, spent summers working for a family friend at their cabin along the little North Fork Santiam. Fishing at Olallie Lake, hiking the Whitewater Trail to Jefferson Park so on and so forth. When you lose those places you lose a part of yourself, you will never get to share those experiences with your kids or relive them yourself. Knowing that "these things happen" or "someday in 200 years it will all grow back," is no comfort, the way it was is gone for the rest of our lives, in 200 years no one will even remember we existed. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I think another late start to winter. I notice the Decembers with above average snowfall don't happen twice in a row at my old area. Late winter needs to be a tad wetter through, February since 2020 has been leaving southern Oregon high and dry in the snow department. Even March too.

I didn't realize the N/S difference in Feb 2021, that was the snowiest February on record at Government Camp!

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Just now, Deweydog said:

If God didn’t want forests to burn he wouldn’t have made them inherently flammable. 

Stop being a d*ck for once in your life. No one is saying forests shouldn’t ever burn. I if anyone understand the important role forest fire plays in ecosystems. I’ve spent years doing research on it. Fires have been in our forests for millennia. Doesn’t make the personal loss any easier, even if it all balances out in the cosmic scheme of things. The rate of favorite spots lost to fire in the last ten years alone has been pretty remarkable. To put yourself in my shoes try to picture a similarly tragic event like your favorite sports team not making the playoffs, or a rained out holiday weekend. Just because everything is meaningless in the grand scheme of things doesn’t mean you won’t get disappointed about it.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

February 2021 is a prime example of that. That winter completely sucked outside of those 3-4 days. 

Weren't there reports of 2" of ice in places near Oregon City and West Linn? I wonder when the last time there was such a major ice storm in the Willamette Valley.

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6 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I didn't realize the N/S difference in Feb 2021, that was the snowiest February on record at Government Camp!

Oh yes, I know parts of the cascades had a lot of snow in 2021. Particularly Snoqualmie area the last two winters. 

Good snow, down to about Mt. Hood or so. The La Ninas I know and remember more often than not included areas down to Northern California in snowstorms and at least regular amounts of rainfall, neither of which has happened much there in the last few. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Lots of virtue signaling.   In the end... we all just want nature to bend to our own personal will so we have what is important to us.   And nature doesn't care.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lots of virtue signaling.   In the end... we all just want nature to bend to our own personal will so we have what is important to us.   And nature doesn't care.  

But that doesn't mean we should just sit back and do nothing. We all have important roles to play in preserving and protecting the ecosystem. 

Uncle_Sam_style_Smokey_Bear_Only_You.jpg

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53 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

People who mostly value material possessions and status symbols in our society can’t relate with the pain of losing a place.

Not my driveway, but isn't it ironic how they name the behemoth gas guzzlers after the things they destroy? (GMC Yukon, GMC Yukon Extra Large, Chevy Tahoe, Toyota Sequoia)

20220825_105220.thumb.jpg.f8923ee00ece5cf584b6582019834c72.jpg

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