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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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Just now, Chewbacca Defense said:

Just watching Michael Snyder's video for today and a comment caught my eye....Someone said that elk have started moving through their area, and the first fall storm is usually soon to follow when they show up....

Interesting observation....

This is gonna be a fuckkin’ fun few months.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Not really relevant to the current discussion but I was wondering if anyone knew if the reading of 23 degrees on 4/13/1968 at the Bethany COOP site was legitimate or not. If it was legitimate then a temp that cold in mid April is really impressive but I'm not sure if it was because usually this area is pretty bad for cold low temps. On that day Hillsboro dropped to 26, PDX dropped to 30, Salem dropped to 23 and Vancouver hit 24 so I'm thinking it might be legitimate. I've noticed that this area can struggle to lose the wind and Hillsboro which is usually colder was warmer that night
Here's the approximate location of where the reading was taken:
image.png.4e6bb4307cd8f3186902dfcee600ef45.png

I think it is legit. Silver Falls had a low of 24 that day, and it snowed the day before. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Not really relevant to the current discussion but I was wondering if anyone knew if the reading of 23 degrees on 4/13/1968 at the Bethany COOP site was legitimate or not. If it was legitimate then a temp that cold in mid April is really impressive but I'm not sure if it was because usually this area is pretty bad for cold low temps. On that day Hillsboro dropped to 26, PDX dropped to 30, Salem dropped to 23 and Vancouver hit 24 so I'm thinking it might be legitimate. I've noticed that this area can struggle to lose the wind and Hillsboro which is usually colder was warmer that night
Here's the approximate location of where the reading was taken:
image.png.4e6bb4307cd8f3186902dfcee600ef45.png

That month also had 10 freezes in Bethany while Hillsboro only had 6. I think the old Hillsboro COOP station might've been in a worse radiational cooling spot as well.

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

That month also had 10 freezes in Bethany while Hillsboro only had 6. I think the old Hillsboro COOP station might've been in a worse radiational cooling spot as well.

Silver Falls had 14 freezes and a monthly average minimum of 33.4. 1968 was a fun weather year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Just watching Michael Snyder's video for today and a comment caught my eye....Someone said that elk have started moving through their area, and the first fall storm is usually soon to follow when they show up....

Interesting observation....

The first fall storm will be over Labor Day weekend. It is already showing up in the models, and I know it will verify because I will be out of the area. You’re all welcome.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think it is legit. Silver Falls had a low of 24 that day, and it snowed the day before. 

I couldn't imagine seeing a low of 23 in mid April here now at least! Seems like a cold month, average temp of 47 degrees and 10 freezes. Not too wet though, 2.37" of precip and less at PDX and Hillsboro

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Just now, ShawniganLake said:

It’ll pick up in the fall and winter. 

This forum used to be completely dead in the summer too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Just watching Michael Snyder's video for today and a comment caught my eye....Someone said that elk have started moving through their area, and the first fall storm is usually soon to follow when they show up....

Interesting observation....

I think there actually might be some validity to that. Nature just kind of seems to have a sense that things are changing. 

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21 minutes ago, Cloud said:

fwiw, the Euro showed BC getting absolutely pummeled next weekend and it's still going by the end of its run. Some places over Van. Isl. getting 5" of rain. 

Climo suggests that will end up a little more north.  More likely to be a central and north coast event. 

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54 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Looking forward to being down in that area on September 11th-13th. Hopefully it’s not too Smokey thank you for being down there helping fight the fires. 

I just came back from Diamond Lake on Tuesday. No smoke at all the three days I was there. Water was warm as well at 76 degrees. Beautiful out on the lake with Mt. Thielson to the east and Mt. Bailey to the west with the caldera that is Crater Lake to the south. 

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1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Climo suggests that will end up a little more north.  More likely to be a central and north coast event. 

Yeah I suspect we don’t get anything big in terms of rainfall until after September 15th. Maybe some small rainfalls south of BC but not much. The last 3 Septembers the faucet started turning on about September 15th I think it’ll probably be the same. 

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2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I couldn't imagine seeing a low of 23 in mid April here now at least! Seems like a cold month, average temp of 47 degrees and 10 freezes. Not too wet though, 2.37" of precip and less at PDX and Hillsboro

I once recorded a low of 7°F in April. Of course, that was in the southern Rockies, not the PNW (there was also 7" of snow on the ground). Made a lot of opening buds on trees shrivel up and turn black. Not that much fruit that year.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I just came back from Diamond Lake on Tuesday. No smoke at all the three days I was there. Water was warm as well at 76 degrees. Beautiful out on the lake with Mt. Thielson to the east and Mt. Bailey to the west with the caldera that is Crater Lake to the south. 

Wow that is warm! Did you catch any fish?!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I just came back from Diamond Lake on Tuesday. No smoke at all the three days I was there. Water was warm as well at 76 degrees. Beautiful out on the lake with Mt. Thielson to the east and Mt. Bailey to the west with the caldera that is Crater Lake to the south. 

I’ve been tracking the satellite imagery for wildfire smoke the last few days and based on that it’s overall been pretty clear minus a fire west of Waldo lake. I’m going down in 12 days to central Oregon based on the upcoming pattern don’t foresee any big flare ups. Fingers crossed! 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This forum used to be completely dead in the summer too. 

Oh definitely. This place is a lot more active in the summer months now with more posters than I remembered from previous years. Like it said, it's a good thing!

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5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Climo suggests that will end up a little more north.  More likely to be a central and north coast event. 

Feels like a matter of time with as much energy continues to get dumped into the GOA. Been a constant for about five weeks now and looks to continue.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Silver Falls had 14 freezes and a monthly average minimum of 33.4. 1968 was a fun weather year. 

Does Silver Falls have snow data for December 1968 and January 1969? It seems like the first half of January would've had a lot of snow in that area, like the 36/33 day at Salem on the 9th with 1.21" of precip.

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah I suspect we don’t get anything big in terms of rainfall until after September 15th. Maybe some small rainfalls south of BC but not much. The last 3 Septembers the faucet started turning on about September 15th I think it’ll probably be the same. 

The rainy season is officially starting up around prince Rupert BC.  September can see some of there largest rain events 

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81 at SEA... on the same pace as yesterday so should fail short of 90 again.     Looks like we 2022 might end up tied for second place with 2018.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah I suspect we don’t get anything big in terms of rainfall until after September 15th. Maybe some small rainfalls south of BC but not much. The last 3 Septembers the faucet started turning on about September 15th I think it’ll probably be the same. 

We've technically entered the upward swing now for precipitation, but still quite low, still looking at a 10% chance. Should improved by 3rd or last week of Sept nearing 25%. We shouldn't really be surprised that it's dry right now either. 

Daily Chance of Precipitation in Seattle.png

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8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah I suspect we don’t get anything big in terms of rainfall until after September 15th. Maybe some small rainfalls south of BC but not much. The last 3 Septembers the faucet started turning on about September 15th I think it’ll probably be the same. 

It did turn on significantly earlier up this way last year. Started getting regular rain events in mid/late August! I remember doing some camping at Dash Point in late August and noticing how bone-dry and dusty it was down there. Then I came back north and the woods were all moist and reawakening.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

We've technically entered the upward swing now for precipitation, but still quite low, still looking at a 10% chance. Should improved by 3rd or last week of Sept nearing 25%. We shouldn't really be surprised that it's dry right now either. 

Daily Chance of Precipitation in Seattle.png

What are those blue and gray colors at the bottom? Snow/ice chances?

It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Does Silver Falls have snow data for December 1968 and January 1969? It seems like the first half of January would've had a lot of snow in that area, like the 36/33 day at Salem on the 9th with 1.21" of precip.

Yes. Overall snow data at Silver Falls is fairly spotty, but it was more consistent back in the day. Their precip data nowadays is absolutely horrendous, which is a shame. 

Here is December 1968, obviously their snow data is not complete for this month. Also it is interesting that their highs are so much warmer than valley locations the last two days of the month. I have always attributed that to some kind of inversion, but it could also be due to their obs being 7a-7a instead of midnight-midnight. 

https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=1968&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

January 1969 is absolutely insane. Nearly 100" of recorded snow, and you can see on the 7th they recorded 5" of new snow depth, but no snow. Also my location is 300' higher than their weather station, and typically gets significantly more snow... Hard to fathom...

https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=1969&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This forum used to be completely dead in the summer too. 

Really looking forward to the night shift this year. Rob should be back soon and then it's really gonna become a party.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Really looking forward to the night shift this year. Rob should be back soon and then it's really gonna become a party.

Speaking of someone who has taken incredible steps to better themselves and ignore the haters. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yes. Overall snow data at Silver Falls is fairly spotty, but it was more consistent back in the day. Their precip data nowadays is absolutely horrendous, which is a shame. 

Here is December 1968, obviously their snow data is not complete for this month. Also it is interesting that their highs are so much warmer than valley locations the last two days of the month. I have always attributed that to some kind of inversion, but it could also be due to their obs being 7a-7a instead of midnight-midnight. 

https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=1968&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

January 1969 is absolutely insane. Nearly 100" of recorded snow, and you can see on the 7th they recorded 5" of new snow depth, but no snow. Also my location is 300' higher than their weather station, and typically gets significantly more snow... Hard to fathom...

https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=1969&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

Wow, 100" of snow in one month! Looks like there is no data for January 1950 at Silver Falls sadly but it has a snow depth of 41 on February 1st! Also from your signature it seems like the winter of 2011/2012 was very snowy, I wouldn't have thought that that was your snowiest winter at Silver Falls.

Yeah the max temp happening at a different time period than midnight to midnight is slightly annoying but thankfully the Bethany station had hourly wind speed and temp data. On 12/30 the temp at midnight was 12 and kept dropping throughout the day but it reports 15/7 instead of the 12/7 that it should be going by the hourly data. It also had sustained east winds of 30mph for more than three hours and just as strong during the January 1969 storm at the end of the month. I think blizzard criteria is sustained or frequent gusts to 35mph for three hours with visibility less than 1/4th of a mile so I think 12/30/1968 and might have qualified locally at least, 8" of snow fell that day.

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Just now, Doiinko said:

Wow, 100" of snow in one month! Looks like there is no data for January 1950 at Silver Falls sadly but it has a snow depth of 41 on February 1st! Also from your signature it seems like the winter of 2011/2012 was very snowy, I wouldn't have thought that that was your snowiest winter at Silver Falls.

Yeah the max temp happening at a different time period than midnight to midnight is slightly annoying but thankfully the Bethany station had hourly wind speed and temp data. On 12/30 the temp at midnight was 12 and kept dropping throughout the day but it reports 15/7 instead of the 12/7 that it should be going by the hourly data. It also had sustained east winds of 30mph for more than three hours and just as strong during the January 1969 storm at the end of the month. I think blizzard criteria is sustained or frequent gusts to 35mph for three hours with visibility less than 1/4th of a mile so I think 12/30/1968 and might have qualified locally at least, 8" of snow fell that day.

We had like 3 feet of snow here. Probly the most impressive winter event here in the last 120 years.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We had like 3 feet of snow here. Probly the most impressive winter event here in the last 120 years.

What was interesting about January 1969 is that there was a very sharp N/S temp gradient. If I recall correctly January 2017 was colder than 1969 at EUG. In the end it worked out. ;)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What was interesting about January 1969 is that there was a very sharp N/S temp gradient. If I recall correctly January 2017 was colder than 1969 at EUG. In the end it worked out. ;)

Looks like PDX furnished the cold air but was on the dry side of the action in 1969. The mega-dumps of snow require a mix of cold and moisture, and often have enough marine influence that it is not super-cold where they happen.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looks like PDX furnished the cold air but was on the dry side of the action in 1969. The mega-dumps of snow require a mix of cold and moisture, and often have enough marine influence that it is not super-cold where they happen.

And early in the month Eugene had three days in the 60s in a row! I'd say that's worth it to get 3 days in a row with more than 10" of snow and a peak depth of 34" though.

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