August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[snow_wizard]

28 minutes ago, T-Town said:

62 in Cle Elum. Probably lots of good spots available at the pool at Suncadia. 

Probably. 

I noticed there are even some 40s in the higher elevations of the Wenatchee Mountains today.

[snow_wizard]

39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... coolest air is today.

I'm a little disappointed.  Last nights EPS had more of a -PNA -EPO signature which would have meant great weather, but not as warm.

[snow_wizard]

Yesterdays extended GFS ensemble looked good for the second half of September with a persistent -PNA developing.

[TT-SEA]

29 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm a little disappointed.  Last nights EPS had more of a -PNA -EPO signature which would have meant great weather, but not as warm.

I wouldn't be totally surprised if it's generally warmer than normal into November.   But also wouldn't be surprised if it crashes hard in November. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm a little disappointed.  Last nights EPS had more of a -PNA -EPO signature which would have meant great weather, but not as warm.

I mean the long range part of the run doesn’t really give you any information aside from there’s lots of ensemble spread trending toward the warm side. It’s light orange from the Aleutians to the upper Midwest.

 

Spaghetti charts show this as well but also illustrate the underlying ensemble spread better.

[TT-SEA]

Many times the EPS looks chilly in the long range.    Probably going to stay general warm.

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I was always under the impression that they shortened moving into the winter season. You might know more than me, but from a layman’s perspective I have always observed there are generally more “kinks” in the jet stream during the cool season, which would lead me to think there are shorter wavelengths overall. Whereas in the summer larger, sprawling and generally more muted 500mb features seem to be more common (longer wavelengths)

You may be confused amplitude and wavelength. There is a relationship between temperature and wavelength… hotter objects generally have shorter wavelength and colder have longer. That being said, as we transition to fall, you can expect lengthen wavelengths. 

[TacomaWx]

71 with some sunbreaks pretty nice day. 

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

71 with some sunbreaks pretty nice day. 

Very comfortable.  Only 67 here at the present time.

[Cascadia_Wx]

27 minutes ago, Cloud said:

You may be confused amplitude and wavelength. There is a relationship between temperature and wavelength… hotter objects generally have shorter wavelength and colder have longer. That being said, as we transition to fall, you can expect lengthen wavelengths. 

Definitely don’t think I’m the one who’s confused right here. I’m not talking about thermal wavelengths. That’s something entirely different. I’m talking about 500mb wavelengths. Rossby waves. Slow down and read my post again.

[snow_wizard]

53 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I mean the long range part of the run doesn’t really give you any information aside from there’s lots of ensemble spread trending toward the warm side. It’s light orange from the Aleutians to the upper Midwest.

 

Spaghetti charts show this as well but also illustrate the underlying ensemble spread better.

Week two could still end up pretty good.  Pretty interesting to see a significant fluctuation in the long wave features from the 0z to 12z on the EPS.  The 0z had 573 heights over SEA and the 12z 579.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Week two could still end up pretty good.  Pretty interesting to see a significant fluctuation in the long wave features from the 0z to 122 on the EPS.  The 0z had 573 heights over SEA and the 12z 579.

I suppose so. I don’t pay too much attention to the mean 500mb height in the long range because it just a mean. It’s not even any type of forecasted pattern. It’s a product of the averaging of many different ensemble members.

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Definitely don’t think I’m the one who’s confused right here. I’m not talking about thermal wavelengths. That’s something entirely different. I’m talking about 500mb wavelengths. Rossby waves. Slow down and read my post again.

Your original post made no mention of such thing. In that regard, it left a lot of room for interpretation.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Your original post made no mention of such thing. In that regard, it left a lot of room for interpretation.  

That could be. Maybe why Phil misread it too. I guess I figured it would be apparent because my original comment was responding to a 500mb map someone posted, which illustrated the shortening wavelengths in some regards. I guess it was my bad for assuming everyone would know what I meant.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That could be. Maybe why Phil misread it too. I guess I figured it would be apparent because my original comment was responding to a 500mb map someone posted, which illustrated the shortening wavelengths in some regards. I guess it was my bad for assuming everyone would know what I meant.

I thought you were pretty clear that it was Rossby waves you were discussing:

Quote

I was always under the impression that they shortened moving into the winter season. You might know more than me, but from a layman’s perspective I have always observed there are generally more “kinks” in the jet stream during the cool season, which would lead me to think there are shorter wavelengths overall. Whereas in the summer larger, sprawling and generally more muted 500mb features seem to be more common (longer wavelengths) [emphasis added]

 

[High Desert Mat?]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I thought you were pretty clear that it was Rossby waves you were discussing:

 

I second that. I knew he meant Rossby waves. 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I was always under the impression that they shortened moving into the winter season. You might know more than me, but from a layman’s perspective I have always observed there are generally more “kinks” in the jet stream during the cool season, which would lead me to think there are shorter wavelengths overall. Whereas in the summer larger, sprawling and generally more muted 500mb features seem to be more common (longer wavelengths)

No wavelengths increase into the cold season across the circumglobal middle latitudes. Subtropical highs/etc expand poleward during the warm season but the the wave number is higher.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I mean the long range part of the run doesn’t really give you any information aside from there’s lots of ensemble spread trending toward the warm side. It’s light orange from the Aleutians to the upper Midwest.

 

Spaghetti charts show this as well but also illustrate the underlying ensemble spread better.

Correct.

[NWbyNW]

WILDFIRE UPDATE  

Happy Birthday! 

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/27/22  

Washington - 4 (4 new fires today. Cool weather helped Washington State today overall. The Palisades Fire has burned 41 acres in NW Spokane has caused for some evacuations.  Overnight crews kept the fire from growing and thankfully no structures have been burned. Crews hope to contain the fire today.  There are four large fires in the state. The total number of fires creeps down from 66 to 62.) Total: 62

Oregon - 2 (2 new fires in the state again today.  There are three large fires in the state.  A new fire, the RV Fire is fast moving and has already burned 150 acres.  It is NW of Wasco. The majority of fires are in the NE corner of the state. The number of large fires has increased from three to six.  The new large fires are the RV Fire near Wasco, the Crockets Knob Fire near John Day, the Hat Top Fire in remote nowhere, SE of Ontario, and the Rum Creek Fire near Grants Pass The total number of fires decreases from 36 to 27.) Total: 36

Idaho - 3(3 new fires in the state today.  After a continued growth of fires the past two weeks, having a day with only three new fires is considered a win.   We are back to three large fires in the state. The total number of fires remains at 77.) Total: 77

California - 16 (16 new fires in the state of California. There are five large fires in the state, one up from yesterday. There are now more fires in the southern part of the state than the northern part. The total drops from 57 to 51. ) Total: 51

British Columbia - 49 (49 new blazes in the past 24hrs.  Crews have lost ground on fires in Revelstoke, which seems to be an ongoing issue for BC Firefighters this season.  They don't ever seem to have the upper hand and the fires get out of control.  Sadly that is happening again. Four new fires near Nelson. There are three large fires in the province. The total amount of fires drops from 241 to 234.) Total: 234

Who Has had The Most Amount of Fires (Ranked by days in which they've had the most fires, only counting days we've kept track here.)

1. British Columbia - 34 days with the most wildfires

2. Oregon - 2 days with the most wildfires.

SMOKE UPDATE

Washington Sate as a whole is smoke free except for isolated areas within the Kittitas Valley, around Lake Wenatchee.  There is also an isolated area in northwest Spokane. 

Conditions worsen in NW of Grants Pass creating hazy skies, but low level smoke is minimal.  Within hours, Medford and Klamath Falls could see a new batch of smoke from California.  Brookings is also seeing unhealthy air conditions due to smoke from California.  A shift os winds has caused the smoke in California to bunch up, move offshore, and then return inland more concentrated than ever.  Medford and Klamath Falls will see worsening air quality in the next 24hrs.

Smoke from California is degrading air quality in the Boise metro.  Towns in the Bitterroot Range are also seeing smokey conditions.  The Long Valley remains smokey. 

As said yesterday, smoke has left the Lower Mainland of BC.  Cities inland near fires are experiencing smokey conditions and poor air quality. 

As warned the past two days, very heavy smoke has blanketed much of Northern California.  Yreka, Mt. Shasta, Weaverville, even Eureka are seeing moderate to hazardous air conditions.  Very thick, heavy smoke is blanketing the region. Garberville currently has the worse air quality in the country, and this time coastal California is not immune from the smoke that drifted offshore, and is now moving back inland. Moderate conditions are as far south as Ukiah and Chico. East of Shasta out toward Tulelake, conditions are very poor as the smoke drifts NE towards Idaho.  Localized smoke from fires near Porterville has made skies hazy from Fresno to Bakersfield.   Smoke is also effected specifically Glendale and its surrounds.  The Yucca Valley is seeing isolated poor to hazardous air conditions due to wildfire smoke as well. 

The new Palisades Fire in NW Spokane.  Crews hope to contain it today.

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

No wavelengths increase into the cold season across the circumglobal middle latitudes. Subtropical highs/etc expand poleward during the warm season but the the wave number is higher.

I still feel like we’re talking about two different things

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I still feel like we’re talking about two different things

Today’s 18z GFS vs GFS run from back in March. Just one example but you get the picture.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice day. Sun emerging and a temp of 67.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

76F in Springfield. Nice day!!

[TacomaWx]

71/58 today. 

[HuskyMaestro]

Nice and cloudy that went 72 here. 

Pretending it's fall with pumpkin spice coffee is the vibes at home right now.

[Omegaraptor]

77 at PDX and 75 at HIO. Really refreshing day!

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

77 at PDX and 75 at HIO. Really refreshing day!

75+ streak lives on.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like SEA did 70/57 today.  Pretty cool.  That pretty well puts an end to any chance of beating 1967 for monthly average.

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Nice and cloudy that went 72 here. 

Pretending it's fall with pumpkin spice coffee is the vibes at home right now.

I love that stuff!

[snow_wizard]

The 18z finally gets the heights up over the GOA in a big way.

I'm skeptical of that tropical storm / hurricane that it shows over the Gulf.  So far south would be really rare for this time of year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

73 at SLE today. Nice. 

[Doinko]

KPTV is forecasting 92, 98 and 92 for the next heatwave which should bring the 90 degree count to 26 days this year. That would put it third place after 2015 (29) and 2018 (31), and ahead of 2021 (24), 2017 (24), and 2009 (24). 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

77 at PDX and 75 at HIO. Really refreshing day!

[LowerGarfield]

We topped out in the mid 70s. We were in Lewiston in the mid afternoon and it was only about 80-82 when we were there. Quite breezy earlier. Seems to have calmed quite a bit. There was noticible dust in the air to the west but it was fine in our area. Currently 70 degrees at my weather station but 76 inside (yet we have all windows open for the first time in weeks).

[MossMan]

66/54 on the day.

Currently 59. 

[ChrisEl Elyon]

68° here in Belltown Seattle today for the High 

[Phil]

Not a very La Niña like winter forecast from the 2023 Farmers Almanac.

https://www.pennlive.com/weather/2022/08/winter-will-be-memorable-for-all-the-wrong-reasons-says-the-old-farmers-almanac.html?outputType=amp

[Phil]

Hunga Tonga.

 

[Phil]

 

[Deweydog]

2-1 lead in the sixth without a baserunner. Mariners 2022!