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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hunga Tonga.

 

I think there was another thread about Hunga Tonga's effects, and I think there was something about it maybe affecting the strength of the polar vortex in the coming winter? What are your thoughts on that?

Edit with the link: 

 

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52 minutes ago, Phil said:

Mid-Atlantic region is “cold, snowy!” Score!

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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The situation over the Atlantic is getting to the point of being really weird now.  The GFS only shows two second rate storms over the next two weeks and none of them form over the Eastern or Central Atlantic.  Forecasters are blaming wind shear and the continued influx of dry Saharan air over the Atlantic.  I have no idea what the implications of this are going forward.  That and the Tonga Volcano throw a lot of monkey wrenches into possible outcomes this winter.

At this point the hurricane forecasters are facing a bust of monumental proportions and there is no way the Hunga Tonga moisture plume has anything to do with it yet given where the plume currently is.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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24 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Looks like J. Bastardi drew that. 

The forecast makes zero sense given ENSO and QBO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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39 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Bet the surface is warmer than normal, too. That’s usually how it plays out: solar energy that’s not heating the stratosphere is instead heating the troposphere (or vice versa).

I haven't seen any evidence of warming at the surface yet compared to what temps have been the last several years.  There are undoubtedly some sulfuric aerosols up there too which might mitigate any warming effects.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Little drizzle(enough to wet the ground) in Ravenna area this morning. Moving my graduated daughter(from UW)out of her apartment today. Was a nice prelude to Autumn.

BTW, 520 bridge closure, plus I 5 lane restrictions, led to almost 2 hours from 45th st to Boeing Field this afternoon!

5.5 hour trip home today after 3.5 hours up yesterday afternoon!

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2 minutes ago, Jakewestsalem said:

Little drizzle(enough to wet the ground) in Ravenna area this morning. Moving my graduated daughter(from UW)out of her apartment today. Was a nice prelude to Autumn.

BTW, 520 bridge closure, plus I 5 lane restrictions, led to almost 2 hours from 45th st to Boeing Field this afternoon!

5.5 hour trip home today after 3.5 hours up yesterday afternoon!

I would have gone out of my mind in traffic like that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The GFS gets stuck in a pretty ugly mode on this run.  The models are really struggling right now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Curious how many times that’s happened… team hits three home runs but never has a baserunner.

Technically they had 3 guys get 4 total bases tho.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 hours ago, Doiinko said:

KPTV is forecasting 92, 98 and 92 for the next heatwave which should bring the 90 degree count to 26 days this year. That would put it third place after 2015 (29) and 2018 (31), and ahead of 2021 (24), 2017 (24), and 2009 (24). 

Shocking it might beat last year.  I thought that was out of reach after the slow start we had.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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M's game left the nastiest and most bitter taste in my mouth. Should've been a 3-2 win but whatever ump.

Overall a quiet and cloudy night at 61 right now.

𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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49 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The excitement on here tonight palpable...

I was watching college football and hanging out with Andrew today. Forgive me for not being enthused about yet another stretch of 90F-burgers.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

You and Andrew both seem pretty chill…Jesse too. If I lived down in Oregon I’d be down to meet you guys. 

Y'all should drop in. I'm pretty much always here.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I know for sure I’m gonna try and meet Jesse sometime since he’s less than 2 hours away. Think it’d be really cool too meet a lot of people on the forum. Some very cool people here. Still regret missing the opportunity to meet @MR.SNOWMIZER

For sure. Let me know if you’re ever down in the Portland area. We could go for a hike.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Technically they had 3 guys get 4 total bases tho.

For sure, but that just makes it all the more bizarre. Aside from those three homers, Cleveland combined for a perfect game.

EDIT:

According to MLB.com, they’re saying it’s the first time in the modern era that it’s occurred. So awesome to witnessed such a spectacle! Got borderline CHILLY too!

Edited by Deweydog

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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50 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I know for sure I’m gonna try and meet Jesse sometime since he’s less than 2 hours away. Think it’d be really cool too meet a lot of people on the forum. Some very cool people here. Still regret missing the opportunity to meet @MR.SNOWMIZER

Is he ok?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like it will get pretty cool tonight with clear skies.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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53F out there. Nice night!

  • Like 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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5 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I was watching college football and hanging out with Andrew today. Forgive me for not being enthused about yet another stretch of 90F-burgers.

 

5 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

You and Andrew both seem pretty chill…Jesse too. If I lived down in Oregon I’d be down to meet you guys. 

I hiked the Trail of Ten Falls with Andrew yesterday. He’s a great guy in person.

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7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS gets stuck in a pretty ugly mode on this run.  The models are really struggling right now.

Maybe the models aren't struggling and its just going to be generally warm.     The long range stuff always changes wildly on the GFS... but the ensembles have not been showing any significant cold air over the next 2 weeks.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I haven't seen any evidence of warming at the surface yet compared to what temps have been the last several years.  There are undoubtedly some sulfuric aerosols up there too which might mitigate any warming effects.

Actually, not really. This has already been hashed to death. Hunga Tonga was a very unusual volcanic eruption. Lots of water vapor, virtually no sulphur. Most models indicate it should cause warming, not cooling, at the surface. Though since it is such an unusual eruption, we are essentially in uncharted territory here.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Maybe the models aren't struggling and its just going to be generally warm.     The long range stuff always changes wildly on the GFS... but the ensembles have not been showing any significant cold air over the next 2 weeks.  

But I really wanna see cooling! You just gotta BELIEVE!

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

But I really wanna see cooling! You just gotta BELIEVE!

It probably won't be wall to wall hot either.    The ECMWF showed cooler days on Friday and then on Labor Day with highs barely into the mid 70s in Seattle with weak systems passing through to the north.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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