August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[ShawniganLake]

28 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Has your wife ever asked you how many shovels does one man really need? I was asked this recently and I quickly went on the attack about a certain snow shovel “accident” a couple years ago….

It’s good to have an assortment in your arsenal.  

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It’s good to have an assortment in your arsenal.  

Yeah I have one for the back deck and one for the front walkway to the house! I really should have two backups just in case though! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

70F and not a cloud in the sky. Beautiful morning!

[Phil]

The degree to which the winter circulation has damaged the arctic icepack since the 1990s cannot be understated.

-Accelerated flushing of older/thicker multiyear ice through the Fram Strait by westerly winds under +NAM dominance. Remaining ice is younger/thinner with higher saltwater content, which is easier to melt.

-Greatly increased southerly warm advection from NATL/Eurasia domain into Arctic due to the strengthening vortex over NE-Canada when canonical +NAM is absent. Pushes NATL front northward, and warms/slows freezing across the entire CAB 

Many factors involved in these circulatory changes, but a lot of it can be traced back to the Indo-West Pacific convection and z-cell changes there.

Hard to say how much of this is anthropogenically augmented versus natural, as the current state is not unprecedented even by late Holocene standards (at least 2 cycles of similar amplitude have occurred over the last 3500 years), but the result is the same either way:

-Megadroughts in favored areas under Hadley Cell descending branches.

- Positive state of annular modes (+AO, +AAO) dominate. Convection suppressed in bulk over deep tropics due to static stability, while enhanced in subtropics, on average.

- La Niña dominance with warm Indo-West Pacific (as observed during the medieval climate anomaly and previous cycles). Increases ocean heat update, with enhancement of boundary currents/poleward transport of low latitude waters. Serves to weaken equator-pole thermal gradient in bulk.

Could list more. Point is, it’s sucky. Analogous regimes during the neoglacial era generally lasted several hundred years (400-600 years, usually), so in theory this one could have plenty of room to run, even if it was completely natural (there an is anthropogenic contribution in this case).

Although technically this regime began to develop in the 1700s, and was already well established by 1900. It has only further amplified in the 21st century, and the last decade has been right up there with the medieval pattern and earlier periods. Can it amplify further? Or will there be an interdecadal attenuation, as observed during the 1950s-70s and 1860s-90s?

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looking more ridgy for the holiday weekend.    

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF looking more ridgy for the holiday weekend.    

That’s an impressive ridge. Nearing 600dam 

[TacomaWx]

Still pretty minimal on the smoke overall for august 28th. 

[TacomaWx]

67 and sunny here after a low of 52. Very nice comfortable day. 

[FroYoBro]

Today is pretty much summer perfection. 

[snow_wizard]

The persistent Ridge over the Aleutians is what really ends up killing us over the next 10 days.  It keeps forcing that deep trough off the coast which is too far west most of the time.  We need it and the North American ridge to join forces and then we will be in business to have deep / cold troughs dig in from the NW.  We'll see when that happens.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Today is pretty much summer perfection. 

More of an early autumn feel actually.

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  Nino 3.4 has been in the -0.8 to -1 range for a week now.  Impressive for this time of year.

[snow_wizard]

Has anyone heard anything from Larry Cosgrove recently?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The persistent Ridge over the Aleutians is what really ends up killing us over the next 10 days.  It keeps forcing that deep trough off the coast which is too far west most of the time.  We need it and the North American ridge to join forces and then we will be in business to have deep / cold troughs dig in from the NW.  We'll see when that happens.

Well better now than during the entire month of January...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Severe clear. Gorgeous day. Going nuts with the wood splitter today. #winterready.

[ShawniganLake]

26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The persistent Ridge over the Aleutians is what really ends up killing us over the next 10 days.  It keeps forcing that deep trough off the coast which is too far west most of the time.  We need it and the North American ridge to join forces and then we will be in business to have deep / cold troughs dig in from the NW.  We'll see when that happens.

Lengthening wavelengths could help as we move into fall if the Aleutian ridge remains a constant. 

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty notable shift to the warm side through the first week of September on the 12z EPS. 

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Pretty notable shift to the warm side through the first week of September on the 12z EPS. 

Jim?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Jim?

Radio silence.

[TT-SEA]

76 in North Bend now.   Might get to 80.  Summer perfection.

Boulder Beach water park is packed here at Silverwood and they don't have enough staff.    Seems to be same wherever you go nowadays.

[ShawniganLake]

47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

76 in North Bend now.   Might get to 80.  Summer perfection.

Boulder Beach water park is packed here at Silverwood and they don't have enough staff.    Seems to be same wherever you go nowadays.

Similar up here.  Never know when things are going to close due to staff shortages.  

[NWbyNW]

A beautiful 70F degree day here in Everett.  Blue skies, cool ocean air.  Lovely day.  This is how summer should be. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

81F and perfect summer weather. Wish it was always like this from Jun-Sept.

[T-Town]

76 here and perfect here as well. 

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

81F and perfect summer weather. Wish it was always like this from Jun-Sept.

Me too.   We lost most of June.     

[weatherfan2012]

6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll see if it actually happens in this case.  No sign of it yet according to global temp anoms vs the last couple of years.  Regardless of what people say there was more than just water vapor put into the air from that volcano.  Certain a lot of salts went up there as well.  The bottom line is....we don't know in this case.

The truth is get 20 people in the room your get a different opinion anwer from all of them.

[weatherfan2012]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

FWIW the enhanced warming in the arctic is confined to the autumn and winter, not during the summer when albedo feedback would be realized directly. That explanation by UCAR is lacking context.

The truth is “arctic enhancement” is largely driven by a combination of latent heat release from re-freezing open water in the autumn/early winter, as well the modern day circulation (+TNH/+NAM) greatly enhancing WAA into the high arctic during the cold season.

We’ve seen during the (brief) excursions into -NAO in recent years that WAA into CAB/high arctic is greatly reduced, with northerly winds/CAA dominating the NATL. If we could somehow establish -NAO/-PNA type circulation as the dominant winter pattern, the arctic ice pack would absolutely recover, possibly to a significant extent, as we saw in the 1960s/70s.

Agreed spot on here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Me too.   We lost most of June.     

At least the late spring kept things cold and wet down here enough to prevent wildfire problems.

[weatherfan2012]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Has anyone heard anything from Larry Cosgrove recently?

Yes he active on facebook twitter all the time.he just wrote his weather letter last night.If you have a question feel free to go on his twitter page or facebook page to ask him.Im  sure he will respond.

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Lengthening wavelengths could help as we move into fall if the Aleutian ridge remains a constant. 

Past history is pretty clear with the analogs being thrown around an Aleutian ridge is pretty likely to dominate this winter.  Details are everything with that thing.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, weatherfan2012 said:

Yes he active on facebook twitter all the time.he just wrote his weather letter last night.If you have a question feel free to go on his twitter page or facebook page to ask him.Im  sure he will respond.

I assume he has stuck a fork in the Nino call?

[snow_wizard]

Incredible day today.  Looks like about 76/51 here.  Give me five more of these this week!

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS is a much better run for those who want a cooler pattern.  Big differences not all that far out.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

More of an early autumn feel actually.

Minima have actually been close to normal for August this morning. Only reason it feels like early autumn is because it’s been torching so badly for a couple months.

[snow_wizard]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

The degree to which the winter circulation has damaged the arctic icepack since the 1990s cannot be understated.

- La Niña dominance with warm Indo-West Pacific (as observed during the medieval climate anomaly and previous cycles). Increases ocean heat update, with enhancement of boundary currents/poleward transport of low latitude waters. Serves to weaken equator-pole thermal gradient in bulk.

 

Interesting we have a Nina dominance during this type of regime.  Could explain our winters hanging in there while the summers have gone full blown hot.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Minima have actually been close to normal for August this morning. Only reason it feels like early autumn is because it’s been torching so badly for a couple months.

It actually felt cold this morning because we haven’t been in the low 50s in awhile here. 75/52 today. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Minima have actually been close to normal for August this morning. Only reason it feels like early autumn is because it’s been torching so badly for a couple months.

Well...technically September is early autumn and the Puget Sound area was a touch below normal this morning.  As you say the contrast to recent warm mins has really amplified the feel of it.  Interestingly my period from last sub 50 min to first sub 50 min this year will actually be shorter than normal thanks to one each in July and August.

[NWbyNW]

WILDFIRE UPDATE  

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/28/22  

Washington - 6 (6 new fires today. Cool weather continues to help Washington State. The Palisades Fire grown very little over the past 24hrs thanks to the great work by firefighters.  There are four large fires in the state. The total number of fires drops from 62 to 53.) Total: 53

Oregon - 6 (6 new fires in the state again today.  There are five large fires in the state. The total number of fires increases from 27 to 30.) Total: 30

Idaho - 3(3 new fires in the state today.  After a continued growth of fires the past two weeks, having a day with only three new fires is considered a win.   We are back to three large fires in the state. The total number of fires remains at 77.) Total: 77

California - 33 (33 new fires in the state of California. There are six large fires in the state, up one from yesterday.  The new large fire is the Rodgers Fire. It is producing a lot of smoke, but growth potential is minimal. The total increases from 51 to 66. ) Total: 66

British Columbia - 23 (23 new blazes in the past 24hrs.  There are three large fires in the province. The total amount of fires drops from 234 to 205.) Total: 204

Who Has had The Most Amount of Fires (Ranked by days in which they've had the most fires, only counting days we've kept track here.)

1. British Columbia - 35 days with the most wildfires

2. Oregon - 2 days with the most wildfires.

SMOKE UPDATE

The majority of the region is smoke free at the low level with some isolated heavy smoke in BC, the Okanogan of BC and WA, Spokane, Northern California, Medford, and Klamath Falls.  

 

Rodgers Fire in California. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Really surprised that it hasn’t gotten nasty and smoky yet. Not going to do any celebratory dance until there is a pattern shift and regular rains resume. September is sometimes a very dry month (and sometimes a very smoky one).

[MV_snow]

Ridiculously nice day today. 76/52 with marine layer burning off around 10 AM. Would love to hang onto this kind of weather until the first fall storms hit.