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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

5130611F-6BC8-42C3-A93E-C96EB2736222.jpeg

502504A2-A024-4246-AB7E-7BEA327821E4.jpeg

Seven years ago today... August windstorm of 2015. Of all the years to have an active late summer jet and an early start to fall...

SEA picked up 1.28" on this day and another 0.40" the following. That August featured two 1"+ days.

I remembered my old work place in Kirkland being out of power and several downed trees... we ran off of the generator. 

Ended up with a decent (cool) Sept. and a very wet Oct. 

Fun end to summer. 

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Ughh, models are ugly this morning. Endless torch. At this rate PDX is going to break 2018 for the highest number of 90's which I thought was untouchable for at least another decade.

Some hope for the second week of September to bring some actual average temperatures, hopefully.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Ughh, models are ugly this morning. Endless torch. At this rate PDX is going to break 2018 for the highest number of 90's which I thought was untouchable for at least another decade.

Some hope for the second week of September to bring some actual average temperatures, hopefully.

We're already going to end this summer hotter than 2018!

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No way this verifies but goes to show the magnitude of this ridge over the holiday weekend. Absolutely devastating.

Screen Shot 2022-08-29 at 12.43.05 PM.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Looks like we'll be racking up more 90F burgers again...

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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11 minutes ago, Kayla said:

No way this verifies but goes to show the magnitude of this ridge over the holiday weekend. Absolutely devastating.

Screen Shot 2022-08-29 at 12.43.05 PM.png

That is absolutely vile 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

The Euro is going for 100 tomorrow in PDXsfct.us_nw.png

Definitely possible if things align just right, although we might get a little smoke screen. Definitely a bit of a downslope component early in the day which might help negate some of the diurnal inversion tendency which is increasing rapidly. Would be the latest 100 since the big daddy on 9/2/88.

I’d go with 98.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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12z GFS ensemble actually isn't that bad after this week. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1661774400-1661774400-1662638400-5.gif

Looks like the cycle is about to repeat at the end of the run with another trough dumping out into the GOA.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Definitely possible if things align just right, although we might get a little smoke screen. Definitely a bit of a downslope component early in the day which might help negate some of the diurnal inversion tendency which is increasing rapidly. Would be the latest 100 since the big daddy on 9/2/88.

I’d go with 98.

We're also tied for number of 99 days in a year with 6 (1981 and 1977 also had 6) so if we manage to hit 99 tomorrow we'd beat that. We've also had the most 98 degree days in a year so far with 8.

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19 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The heat being shown in California is absolutely mind-boggling. 122F in Sacramento and this would crush its all time high of 114F. 

That's something you'd expect in Blythe or Needles, not Sacramento. Even Bakersfield that would be hot.

For today it was 82 about thirty minutes ago when I was on break.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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32 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The heat being shown in California is absolutely mind-boggling. 122F in Sacramento and this would crush its all time high of 114F. 

Something is wrong with the model output. Forecast is only for 88F in Tahoe 90 miles away and our Sept record is 94F. If Sacramento were going to crush their record I would think we would as well. 

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

5130611F-6BC8-42C3-A93E-C96EB2736222.jpeg

502504A2-A024-4246-AB7E-7BEA327821E4.jpeg

Seven years ago today... August windstorm of 2015. Of all the years to have an active late summer jet and an early start to fall...

That was such a crazy event! Was in Sun Lakes when it happened, the wave action was amazing!! Came home to a mess and no power the next day. Nearly 3 days without power. 

D0A143C0-5D4E-44EC-8F24-0E8F71092B6D.jpeg

A0916945-B06E-4BC3-AD14-A38BB04D3372.jpeg

74AE06C8-35C2-478C-BBDC-B39658FBE980.jpeg

8B86C20F-1F0B-4379-B483-2EBFD4FE09B6.jpeg

A83C3FE8-FA79-4A13-8F2B-EF05E561D92F.jpeg

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Didn’t it say 118 for PDX in June 2021 at one point? That didn’t verify but it did get within 2°F.

Yeah I believe it did. 120+ is a massive stretch for early September though.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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38 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Something is wrong with the model output. Forecast is only for 88F in Tahoe 90 miles away and our Sept record is 94F. If Sacramento were going to crush their record I would think we would as well. 

Tougher to warm the upper levels as much this time of year. Generally, the atmosphere cools from the top down.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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12Z EPS and control run are warm for the next 2 weeks.   Control run shows a very brief trough around day 11 but the ridge pops right back up afterwards.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah I believe it did. 120+ is a massive stretch for early September though.

If 115+ is achievable in the Willamette Valley now, 120+ in the Central Valley sounds believable to me. Even figuring in that it is now September, 110+ seems very easily achievable.

Most of those records are for a climate that no longer exists.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If 115+ is achievable in the Willamette Valley now, 120+ in the Central Valley sounds believable to me. Even figuring in that it is now September, 110+ seems very easily achievable.

Most of those records are for a climate that no longer exists.

115 definitely seems plausible with this setup for them.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

@Phil does where the PV initially sets up have any impact on how it behaves in fall/winter?

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-nhemi-z500-1661731200-1661731200-1663027200-5.gif

Not this early, no. And the developing PV is in the stratosphere, not the 500mb level.

Watch the evolution of the low frequency component in the tropics, monsoonal circulations, and subtropical stratospheric temperatures for clues as to how quickly the PV will wrap up.

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33 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Something is wrong with the model output. Forecast is only for 88F in Tahoe 90 miles away and our Sept record is 94F. If Sacramento were going to crush their record I would think we would as well. 

You can clearly see from here it'll be quite windy at lower elevation and wind direction indicates a strong downslope. I would imagine that you being at 6,000' in elevation won't have to deal with that vs. Sacramento's sea level elevation with very strong downslope. The heat looked trapped. 

sfcgustmax_006h_mph.us_state_ca_n.png

sfcwind_mslp.us_state_ca_n.png

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30 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Red Bluff hit 118 in September 1988, so 120 is certainly doable for the northern Sacramento Valley.

Only 108 in 1988 at Sacramento though. Euro says 122 for them which is beyond comprehensible in early September.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Some red flag conditions coming up. A last gasp of delight for some. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Knocks on wood, I'm kinda shocked at how tame the fire season has been so far, given how hot its been for the last month and a half here.  Had to have been the wet, cool spring and the occasion Wet Tstorms we've experienced throughout the summer (although those can also be a curse)

Usually at least in the last 5 years since I've been here, we've had at least a few Smoke filled days by now.  Not complaining considering the heat

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