August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I hate heat.  I love doing stuff outside and hot weather in the sun just makes it impossible to function at full efficiency.  If I lived east of the Rockies it would have to be in the far north.

You’d thrive in coastal Maine. Anywhere south of there would probably be too soupy though. Even Boston is much warmer & more humid than Seattle in the summer.

[snow_wizard]

Ended up with an impressive 85 / 52 here today.  Nice diurnal range.

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS continues to insist the pattern will change during week two.  Major shift to above normal heights over the GOA and sagging heights over the NW.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Ended up with an impressive 85 / 52 here today.  Nice diurnal range.

Hillsboro's records for August 1968 are impressive for diurnal ranges during that month, on 8/10 they had a 92/49 day! And late in the month some of the metro area had highs in the 50s. And during the extreme heat in August 1977, Hillsboro still managed 103/55 and 106/58, a 48 degree spread!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

That dude must be full of sh*t 85 degrees or hotter is not fun to try and sleep in. 

I think he was being honest. It was no trouble for him to sleep at that temperature. I don’t think he realized how awful it is for most people.

 

[SnowWillarrive]

38 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

70 here currently. Warmer than the last few evenings. 

Already down to 63 here. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still 66F here. Nice night!

[TacomaWx]

16 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Already down to 63 here. 

69 here…probably in for our 19th +60 low this year which is the most I’ve recorded in a year. Record was just set last year. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF shows lots of sun over the long weekend with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.   Phil will call me a sadist for enjoying his dream weather.   Only on here.  We get so twisted up trolling when we all generally like the same weather.   

[ShawniganLake]

59 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think he was being honest. It was no trouble for him to sleep at that temperature. I don’t think he realized how awful it is for most people.

 

It wasn’t me was it. I seem to sleep just fine during hot weather too.  Put a fan by the window and I’m good. 

[ShawniganLake]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF shows lots of sun over the long weekend with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.   Phil will call me a sadist for enjoying his dream weather.   Only on here.  We get so twisted up trolling when we all generally like the same weather.   

I’m heading up to Watch Lake in the BC Cariboo.  How’s it looking up there?  

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF shows a GOA ridge and a trough by day 10.    Still not much rain though.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’m heading up to Watch Lake in the BC Cariboo.  How’s it looking up there?  

Had to figure out where that was... it looks about the same up there.    Northern and western BC looks cool and wet this weekend... but Watch Lake is pretty far east.  

Here is Sunday...

[snow_wizard]

Nice looking ECMWF run.  A change is looking pretty possible.

[Guest administrator]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF shows lots of sun over the long weekend with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.   Phil will call me a sadist for enjoying his dream weather.   Only on here.  We get so twisted up trolling when we all generally like the same weather.   

I know fall is in the air when my blood pressure spikes as my eyes roll past your posts. Looking forward to the annual “That isn’t a sign of fall, that’s heat stress” posts, followed by “No you didn’t get frost, the Euro and traffic cam say otherwise” diatribes.

[HuskyMaestro]

5 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

WILDFIRE UPDATE  

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/29/22  

Washington - 16 (16 new fires today. There are five large fires in the state, one more since yesterday. The White River Fire has been added to the large fire list, located next to the Irving Peak Fire near Lake Wenatchee. The total number of fires grows from 53 to 69....nice.  This is the first time all season Washington has had more wildfires than Oregon and Idaho.) Total: 69

Oregon - 5 (5 new fires in the state again today.  There are five large fires in the state. The total number of fires increases from 30 to 32.) Total: 32

Idaho - 4(4 new fires in the state today.  There are three large fires in the state. The total number drops from 77 to 64.) Total: 64

California - 29 (29 new fires in the state of California. There are six large fires in the state. It is producing a lot of smoke, but growth potential is minimal. The total decreases from 66 to 64. ) Total: 64

British Columbia - 17 (17 new blazes in the past 24hrs.  Some big decreases the past two days. There are three large fires in the province. The total amount of fires drops from 205 to 184.) Total: 184

Who Has had The Most Amount of Fires (Ranked by days in which they've had the most fires, only counting days we've kept track here.)

1. British Columbia - 36 days with the most wildfires

2. Oregon - 2 days with the most wildfires.

SMOKE UPDATE

As offshore kicks in on Tuesday, expect smoke to crest over the Cascade's in Western Washington and Oregon. It could be triple thread with smoke from British Columbia, California, and Idaho hitting the western half of Washington if the models are correct.  Hard to tell if it will be low level. Conditions will become moderate to unhealthy for the Lower Mainland of BC as we move into Tuesday and Wednesday. Overall today, conditions were good for much of the region.

Northern California and Medford/Klamath Falls/Grants Pass are dealing with hazardous air quality, the worst in the nation due to wildfires.  This time Southern Oregon has itself to blame for the smoke, the first time all season.  All summer it has been sucking in smoke from California, but this time there is a fire near Grants Pass causing the issues. Expect conditions to worsen in Southern Oregon has the heat turns on. 

I try to tune in at least once a day for @NWbyNW's wildfire updates, even if it's at 2 AM. Really great informative work! 

[Timmy Supercell]

Memory from 8/30/2021. Red sunrise.

[TT-SEA]

4 hours ago, administrator said:

I know fall is in the air when my blood pressure spikes as my eyes roll past your posts. Looking forward to the annual “That isn’t a sign of fall, that’s heat stress” posts, followed by “No you didn’t get frost, the Euro and traffic cam say otherwise” diatribes.

Ahhh... younger days.   Like giving Phil crap about Stampede Pass.

How is fatherhood treating you?   Hope all is well with the family. 

[TT-SEA]

EPS and GEFS both show a troughy signal now in the 10-15 day period.   

Our 2 months of real summer is about over... started on the 4th of July and ending just after Labor Day.   Looks like everyone survived the endless 8 weeks.   

[The Blob]

11 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Whoever titled this thread really jinxed this month.    The one thing it definitely was not was a 1956 redux.

Any suggestions? I was thinking of going with "What is fall anymore?"

[High Desert Mat?]

52 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS and GEFS both show a troughy signal now in the 10-15 day period.   

Our 2 months of real summer is about over... started on the 4th of July and ending just after Labor Day.   Looks like everyone survived the endless 8 weeks.   

8 weeks?  Check again. Been blistering hot here since…… wait, let me check my electric bills.. sigh

[Meatyorologist]

54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS and GEFS both show a troughy signal now in the 10-15 day period.   

Our 2 months of real summer is about over... started on the 4th of July and ending just after Labor Day.   Looks like everyone survived the endless 8 weeks.   

Been much warmer than average dating back to mid June. Going to continue into early-mid September. 

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Been much warmer than average dating back to mid June. Going to continue into early-mid September. 

In Tim's mind it's not ever adequately summer like until the historically hot and dry stuff begins. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

In Tim's mind it's not ever adequately summer like until the historically hot and dry stuff begins. 

Yeah... June was pretty wet, but also fairly mild with what until 15 years ago would have been considered a heatwave...

[TT-SEA]

38 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

In Tim's mind it's not ever adequately summer like until the historically hot and dry stuff begins. 

Nope.    There is almost always a 6-8 week decently dry spell which is generally sunny and that is what most people equate with summer in the Seattle area.   It does not have to be historically hot.   For example... 2012 had a spectacular summer period and it was not hot.   

You act like this is an unusual perspective but its pretty much a universal view in western WA.    Its so simple.   Just because its been near historically warm the last 2 months does not mean that was required for it to be summer.  

[TacomaWx]

Thought we wouldn’t get below 60 this morning but did manage to get down to 59. 66 currently. 

[BLI snowman]

40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nope.    There is almost always a 6-8 week decently dry spell which is generally sunny and that is what most people equate with summer in the Seattle area.   It does not have to be historically hot.   For example... 2012 had a spectacular summer period and it was not hot.   

You act like this is an unusual perspective but its pretty much a universal view in western WA.    Its so simple.   Just because its been near historically warm the last 2 months does not mean that was required for it to be summer.  

I honestly think most average, let alone cooler than average, 20th century July/August periods in western WA would yield a lot of complaints from you on here if they were to occur today. Even with plenty of nice afternoons in the 70s, cool nights and deeper, longer lasting marine inversions were obviously much more common here in the past. 

I think your perspective is obviously pretty defined by the time you've lived here, which encompasses an ever increasingly extreme and skewed anomaly by our historic standards. 

Edited August 30, 2022 by BLI snowman

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I honestly think most average, let alone cooler than average, 20th century July/August periods here would yield a lot of complaints from you on here if they were to occur today. Even with plenty of nice afternoons in the 70s, cool nights and deeper, longer lasting marine inversions were obviously much more common here in the past. 

I think your perspective is obviously pretty defined by the time you've lived here, which encompasses an ever increasingly extreme and skewed anomaly by our historic standards. 

Even years like 1955 and 1993 had a decently dry period... it rained on just 2 days in August of 1955 here.    It almost always happens and its what most people define as summer in the Seattle area.   There are many examples from 100+ years ago as well with distinct extended dry spells.   Some years are better than others of course.    But I am definitely glad the average temps are increasing overall.   That means we get a little more seasonal variety because winters don't seem to be any less rainy and gloomy in this warming climate.   In fact its been the opposite. 

[Winterdog]

Had a low of 53 this morning after a warm 82 yesterday.  Currently 59 bright degrees.

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Thought we wouldn’t get below 60 this morning but did manage to get down to 59. 66 currently. 

Looks like SEA got down to 62 on the hourly readings... might be a little lower for the actual low though.   

[RentonHill]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Even years like 1955 and 1993 had a decently dry period... it rained on just 2 days in August of 1955 here.    It almost always happens and its what most people define as summer in the Seattle area.   There are many examples from 100+ years ago as well with distinct extended dry spells.   Some years are better than others of course.    But I am definitely glad the average temps are increasing overall.   That means we get a little more seasonal variety because winters don't seem to be any less rainy and gloomy in this warming climate.   In fact its been the opposite. 

ban him

[Omegaraptor]

11 hours ago, Phil said:

This is my least favorite time of year by far. Rapid loss of daylight but the weather doesn’t change for at least another month. Not much convection, loads of bugs, stagnant as hell. Opposite of spring in every respect.  

There’s great things about every time of year but in general I am not a huge fan of November. Kind of the downsides of October and December rolled into one month without many of the upsides of either.

[RentonHill]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS and GEFS both show a troughy signal now in the 10-15 day period.   

Our 2 months of real summer is about over... started on the 4th of July and ending just after Labor Day.   Looks like everyone survived the endless 8 weeks.   

Euro weeklies showed us going right back to the current pattern after next week

[FroYoBro]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Even years like 1955 and 1993 had a decently dry period... it rained on just 2 days in August of 1955 here.    It almost always happens and its what most people define as summer in the Seattle area.   There are many examples from 100+ years ago as well with distinct extended dry spells.   Some years are better than others of course.    But I am definitely glad the average temps are increasing overall.   That means we get a little more seasonal variety because winters don't seem to be any less rainy and gloomy in this warming climate.   In fact its been the opposite. 

Tim finally admitted to liking global warming!

Edited August 30, 2022 by FroYoBro

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

ban him

Who is to say that the cold summers of the 1950s were normal?    In the big picture... we had the medieval warm period and little ice age and now we have entered a new climate phase.   The climate is always changing.   I am glad summers are not getting colder and wetter during my short time here.    We would have to live farther south if that was the case.   

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Tim finally admitted to liking global warming!

In general... a warmer climate has been better for life thriving on this planet.   We have discussed this many times.    We should not make it worse and we should do all we can to prevent causing further damage.   But there are also natural cycles that we have no control over.    

[ShawniganLake]

7 hours ago, administrator said:

I know fall is in the air when my blood pressure spikes as my eyes roll past your posts. Looking forward to the annual “That isn’t a sign of fall, that’s heat stress” posts, followed by “No you didn’t get frost, the Euro and traffic cam say otherwise” diatribes.

Maples are definitely starting to show some heat and/or drought stress now. Which I guess is a sign of fall as it usually happens at the end of a hot dry summer stretch. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Maples are definitely starting to show some heat and/or drought stress now. Which I guess is a sign of fall as it usually happens at the end of a hot dry summer stretch. 

The alders around here are usually a brown mess by this point and dropping leaves fast... but they have been much better this year.     Probably related to a near record cold and wet April and May and a late start... but we should not expect that to happen every year.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is definitely heading towards a GOA ridge and trough over the PNW already just one week out...

[Timmy Supercell]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Who is to say that the cold summers of the 1950s were normal?    In the big picture... we had the medieval warm period and little ice age and now we have entered a new climate phase.   The climate is always changing.   I am glad summers are not getting colder and wetter during my short time here.    We would have to live farther south if that was the case.   

Are older averages archived? (like 1921-1950 normals)

I'd like to think some of that decade was cooler than average back then. I don't think a summer like 2011 was ever an average one, unless you go way back to the 1800's.