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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

July and August are typically very dry... its climo.     Whether it rains .2 or .5 is not really too meaningful.    It is our annual dry period when rain is very infrequent and what most people define as summer in the Seattle area.   That period stands out distinctly from the rest of the year when rain is much more common.    This seems obvious... but maybe not to everyone.   😀

 

July was the driest on average as well in K-Falls but if the year was any kind of a good one for t'storms, I would probably say September is a more consistently dry month on the east slopes.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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17 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Point being, you stirred the pot first thing this morning with your "summer is over after only 8 weeks" comment to get a reaction. You got what you wanted I guess!

Getting called out hard.

Tim can no longer play the innocent "who me? Troll? I never!" card.

#NeverForget

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37 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Getting called out hard.

Tim can no longer play the innocent "who me? Troll? I never!" card.

#NeverForget

I can go back to the July thread and show us discussing 50s and rain on the 4th of July weekend and questioning whether summer would really come this year with a strengthening Nina.   That was just last month.    Now at the end of August its trolling to say the fall transition is approaching and summer was pretty short?   🤨

I think maybe summer seems endless to some people depending on your preferences.    It seemed like this past spring was endless to me even though it wasn't.  

If its trolling to say early July to late August is a short period then I apologize.  

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Let me re-phrase...

September and October can be spectacular here.    I have got my fill of summer this year and it ended up being very summery despite the slow start.    I will be ready to turn the page to fall after Labor Day... the timing just feels right.   Summer was short but sweet and hopefully fall can be really nice as well.   And some rain would also be nice at this point.  👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What are you talking about?    

I can go back to the July thread and show us discussing 50s and rain on the 4th of July weekend and questioning whether summer would really come this year with a strengthening Nina.   That was just last month.    Now at the end of August its trolling to say the fall transition is approaching and summer was pretty short?   🤨

I think maybe summer seems endless to some people depending on your preferences.    It seemed like this past spring was endless to me even though it wasn't.  

If its trolling to say early July to late August is a short period then I apologize.  

 

Wrong. It’s the only 62 day two-month stretch throughout the calendar year. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Let me re-phrase...

September and October can be spectacular here.    I have got my fill of summer this year and it ended up being very summery despite the slow start.    I will be ready to turn the page to fall after Labor Day... the timing just feels right.   Summer was short but sweet and hopefully fall can be really nice as well.   And some rain would also be nice at this point.  👍

September in particular can feature dry troughs and a strong onshore flow that still can burn off in the afternoon for a pleasant day. Harder to pull that off in October without some rainfall.

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Another one baby!! Another year with a month's-worth of 90F burgers, just like the new normal!!

Goodwin signs 2-year contract with Cowboys | News, Sports, Jobs - The Times  Leader

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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FWIW... the 12Z EPS and control run appears to be less troughy in the long range compared to the 00Z run.     The control run looks like the operational run at day 10 and then goes right back to a huge ridge.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

What was the record before last year's 42? I can't remember offhand.

36 in 2014.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is closer to the coast with the ridge next week... could end up being some beautiful early fall weather.   Assuming this does not turn into a clipper situation with offshore flow.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2681600.png

Quantify the so-called “beautiful:” how many additional 90+ days in North Bend?

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Quantify the so-called “beautiful:” how many additional 90+ days in North Bend?

Zero! 

Highs in the low to mid 70s would be beautiful for the middle of September.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Is the Euro still cranking out the 120’s for the Sacramento Valley? If so, I would say those odds are low.

12Z ECMWF for Monday and Tuesday which are now shown to be the hottest days down there... ugly

ecmwf-deterministic-norcal-t2m_f_max6-2422400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-norcal-t2m_f_max6-2508800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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50 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Up to 92 here. This week sucks. Ready for temperatures in the 70’s for highs. 

Right there with you. Good for drying out the split firewood, but I am so ready for seasonal September weather. Can be some of the most pleasant days of the year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Might have a shot at one of the few cool Septembers this century coming up.  Very speculative at this point of course, but there is decent model support for it.  Yesterday's ECMWF weeklies showed -PNA for a good part of the month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol…just got up to 85 here. Pretty toasty considering September is less than 36 hours away. 

It's pushing 90 here, but it's way different than having hot weather in July.  A much smaller part of the day is uncomfortable, and the house is still cool thanks to the cool nights lately.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Might have a shot at one of the few cool Septembers this century coming up.  Very speculative at this point of course, but there is decent model support for it.  Yesterday's ECMWF weeklies showed -PNA for a good part of the month.

Probably not this year. But who knows. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Might have a shot at one of the few cool Septembers this century coming up.  Very speculative at this point of course, but there is decent model support for it.  Yesterday's ECMWF weeklies showed -PNA for a good part of the month.

We’ve just had several cool Septembers in a row, and literally all of the models are showing temperatures in the normal to above-normal range for almost all of the next two weeks.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Might have a shot at one of the few cool Septembers this century coming up.  Very speculative at this point of course, but there is decent model support for it.  Yesterday's ECMWF weeklies showed -PNA for a good part of the month.

Well you might have just jinxed it!  I think you said that in late June for July and in late July for August.   You might want to predict a record warm September at this point.   😀        

Side note... the EPS shows basically warmer than normal 850mb temps for the entire run which takes us to the middle of September.    That is not a strong signal for a cooler than normal month ahead... but obviously it can still happen.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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