August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, Kayla said:

Besides the 2019 cold wave we haven’t been breaking many cold records. Snowfall has definitely been above average (warming climate can hold more moisture) and we are fortunate out here that even with a decent amount of warming the primary wintertime precip form will remain frozen.

I think you're kind of underplaying some rather impressive cold your area has seen in recent years. February has been insane.

[Front Ranger]

I don't think Kayla lived there yet, but 2016-17 also had some pretty impressive cold in Bozeman.

[GobBluth]

GFS is not going to let go of the ridge next week.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, GobBluth said:

GFS is not going to let go of the ridge next week.

Big changes from the 12Z run... looks more like the 18Z run.

[GobBluth]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Big changes from the 12Z run... looks more like the 18Z run.

Portlands making a strong run at 100 again on Tuesday.

[Cloud]

SEA somehow managed to pull a 90 out of its freaking a** today because it would appear the surrounding stations were a couple of degrees cooler.  BFI was 86

And of course it also ran warmer than forecast! The GFS was like the only model that has it being in the 90s. LOL

Got the 90, tied 90s record, and broke the daily record (Another 80s record wiped away from the books). 

[SnowWillarrive]

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

SEA somehow managed to pull a 90 out of its freaking a** today because it would appear the surrounding stations were a couple of degrees cooler.  BFI was 86

And of course it also ran warmer than forecast! The GFS was like the only model that has it being in the 90s. LOL

Got the 90, tied 90s record, and broke the daily record (Another 80s record wiped away from the books). 

This week is turning into a nightmare. 

[TT-SEA]

93.4 in North Bend today... going to just go ahead and round that down to 93.

[Deweydog]

92 in Olympia today.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

92 in Olympia today.

World order is restored. 

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Acres burned per year is definitely rising.  But years like 2000 and 2002 were almost twice as bad as 2019.    So we can still have quiet years.   2013 and 2014 were also very quiet.   

And more acreage burned in 2011 and 2012 then in 2021.    So obviously cool and wet years in the PNW can often be really bad elsewhere.   

What is amazing is how bad it was in the 1920s through the 1940s.    2015 was a terrible fire year with 10 million acres burned... but back in the 1920s and 1930s there was 30-50 million acres burned in some years.   I imagine even the worst years now are so much better than it was 100 years ago.

This is actually pretty interesting thanks for sharing. It still sucks that we’ve got to deal with smoke but I guess it’s best to try not and get too upset or worry about things i can’t control. 
 Definitely am partially upset that it could put a damper on my trip down to Oregon next week…although as it stands unless there’s some pretty explosive fire growth in the next few days I still plan on going and making the best out of it. 

[Deweydog]

The Canadian didn’t read Jim’s earlier post.

[TacomaWx]

Still 74 here…pretty warm night but atleast now the heat is later in the year and the suns going down earlier makes it a bit better. 

[LowerGarfield]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Still 74 here…pretty warm night but atleast now the heat is later in the year and the suns going down earlier makes it a bit better. 

In 100 years what will the temps be like in the Arctic in Dec?

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

According to re-constucted data... the annual land burned in the western US right now is well below the natural average going back 3,000 years.   In other words... it was much worse naturally than it is now being artificially contained.  The exception being during the LIA.   This also says we have a serious fire deficit now which represents a significant imbalance that is not sustainable.   Unfortunately... much more needs to burn to get back in balance.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1112839109

 

Please take your anti-climatechangeismakingeverythingworse narrative elsewhere. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Please take your anti-climatechangeismakingeverythingworse narrative elsewhere. 

I guess the 1800s were really bad for western wildfires... exponentially worse than anything we are seeing now.    The fire deficit built up by the LIA suppression was bought back into balance then.    Now we have a man-made fire deficit caused by suppression and containment that is seriously out of balance with the natural equilibrium.   Not a good situation.   

[Front Ranger]

Good lord.

Rehman said that Padidan, in Pakistan's Sindh Province, received an "unheard of" nearly 70 inches of rain in one day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

27 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Please take your anti-climatechangeismakingeverythingworse narrative elsewhere. 

It's hard to believe more acreage burned when there was literally no fire suppression. 

[Deweydog]

27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I guess the 1800s were really bad for western wildfires... exponentially worse than anything we are seeing now.    The fire deficit built up by the LIA suppression was bought back into balance then.    Now we have a man-made fire deficit caused by suppression and containment that is seriously out of balance with the natural equilibrium.   Not a good situation.   

 

Seriously though, we’ve put ourselves in an unwinnable position. In some respects we treat the earth like a rag doll and in others we go full on yuppie first born overprotective. We’ve hastened creating the match and we’ve stockpiled the fuel.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Deweydog

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Good lord.

Rehman said that Padidan, in Pakistan's Sindh Province, received an "unheard of" nearly 70 inches of rain in one day.

Probably a preview of our winter season. Wouldn't surprise me to see an amped up jet once we get into fall/winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really nice ensemble improvement. The operational continues to be on its own. More or less. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's hard to believe more acreage burned when there was literally no fire suppression. 

But that is the natural state.   We are trying to artificially hold it back and nature is trying to get to equilibrium.   

[SnowWillarrive]

18 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Good lord.

Rehman said that Padidan, in Pakistan's Sindh Province, received an "unheard of" nearly 70 inches of rain in one day.

I wish that was all snow 

[Jbolin]

21 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I wish that was all snow 

NO, you don't.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, JBolin said:

NO, you don't.

60 feet of snow in a day. Who wouldn’t want that. 

[Meatyorologist]

Decent shot at some thunderstorms Friday night. Similar setup to 6/7/19 on paper

[Jbolin]

34 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

60 feet of snow in a day. Who wouldn’t want that. 

Ummmm, most rational people.

But I digress

[TigerWoodsLibido]

62F and pleasant out there tonight. Smoky tho.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z isn’t bad. 

[skywatcher]

Just woke up to rain hitting my window for a minute or so, then a flash of lightning! I'm certainly not getting back to sleep now!

[skywatcher]

That'll do it, a quick moving little shower 

[T-Town]

64 here at 5:30 and a little muggy on my early morning walk. Guessing @TacomaWaWx will add to his +60 low total. 

[Kayla]

8 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

I think you're kind of underplaying some rather impressive cold your area has seen in recent years. February has been insane.

I was talking about record breaking cold vs warmth. While we have seen some cold anomalies over the winter months nothing has been record breaking cold besides Feb/March 2019. Versus in 2021 we saw two top tier (top three warmest) months in the summer and this summer has done the same with August coming in all-time record warm. There really is no questioning that sustained warmth has become more common compared to sustained cold no matter where you live.

With that said, I'm not denying this fun fact; Bozeman was one of the few climate locations that actually cooled with its new 1991-2020 climate normals.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Shaping up to be a nice sunrise this morning.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, skywatcher said:

Just woke up to rain hitting my window for a minute or so, then a flash of lightning! I'm certainly not getting back to sleep now!

Nice!    I just woke up so not sure if there was thunder here earlier but the sky looks very convective.

[RentonHill]

Very cool sky

[Tyler Mode]

59.2 for a low, narrowly avoiding 60+.  Still leaves my August average at 55.7, record warm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Of course now the 06z GFS was a cold member compared to the mean. Not a bad ensembles suite though. 

[MV_snow]

Surprise shower this morning. Muggy and 63 right now.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like SEA needs to get to 83 today to end up with an average temp of 70 for August... assuming the temp does not drop below 62 this morning.    

An average temp of 70+ for a month has only happened 4 times in SEA history (July 2015, July 2018, August 1967, August 2017).     So this will be the 5th warmest month ever recorded there.