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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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10 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Acres burned per year is definitely rising.  But years like 2000 and 2002 were almost twice as bad as 2019.    So we can still have quiet years.   2013 and 2014 were also very quiet.   

And more acreage burned in 2011 and 2012 then in 2021.    So obviously cool and wet years in the PNW can often be really bad elsewhere.   

What is amazing is how bad it was in the 1920s through the 1940s.    2015 was a terrible fire year with 10 million acres burned... but back in the 1920s and 1930s there was 30-50 million acres burned in some years.   I imagine even the worst years now are so much better than it was 100 years ago.

US_Burn_Acreage_1916-2010.png

That chart falls in line with US's wildfire policies of the time.

 

"By 1935, the U.S. Forest Service's fire management policy stipulated that all wildfires were to be suppressed by 10 am the morning after they were first spotted.[5] Fire fighting crews were established throughout public lands, and generally staffed by young men during fire seasons. By 1940, firefighters known as smokejumpers would parachute out of airplanes to extinguish flames in remote locations. By the beginning of World War II, over 8,000 fire lookout towers had been constructed in the United States. Though many have been torn down due to increased use of airplanes for fire spotting, three are still used each year in Yellowstone.[6][7] Firefighting efforts were highly successful, with the area burned by wildfires reduced from an annual average of 30,000,000 acres (120,000 km2) during the 1930s, to between 2,000,000 acres (8,100 km2) and 5,000,000 acres (20,000 km2) by the 1960"

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31 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

That chart falls in line with US's wildfire policies of the time.

 

"By 1935, the U.S. Forest Service's fire management policy stipulated that all wildfires were to be suppressed by 10 am the morning after they were first spotted.[5] Fire fighting crews were established throughout public lands, and generally staffed by young men during fire seasons. By 1940, firefighters known as smokejumpers would parachute out of airplanes to extinguish flames in remote locations. By the beginning of World War II, over 8,000 fire lookout towers had been constructed in the United States. Though many have been torn down due to increased use of airplanes for fire spotting, three are still used each year in Yellowstone.[6][7] Firefighting efforts were highly successful, with the area burned by wildfires reduced from an annual average of 30,000,000 acres (120,000 km2) during the 1930s, to between 2,000,000 acres (8,100 km2) and 5,000,000 acres (20,000 km2) by the 1960"

Can't imagine how much worse the smoke was across the west when the acres burned was multiplied by 3 to 5 times as much as was burned in 2020... which is considered a bad year now.   10 million acres burned in 2015, 2017, and 2020.    But there were years in the 1930s when 50 million acres was burning.   What would be unimaginably bad fire seasons now were just the norm back then.    And that pales in comparison to the level of fires in the 1800s.

To Matt's point last night... its an unwinnable situation.    Nature dictates that much more should burn each year and we are holding it back.    And to make matters worse we now have millions of people (like me) living in areas that are supposed to burn and so we are left being forced to suppress fires to save lives and property.    And suppressing fires just increases the natural pressure for more fires.   

Even in my wet area... fire was much more common in the past.    The face of Mt Si used to frequently burn.   People living here back then would be amazed to see how forested it is now.   

https://snoqualmievalleymuseum.org/2020/11/23/from-the-collection-1893-fires/

This past summer huge fires have burned out of control throughout the West, and it is worth remembering that the Snoqualmie Valley is as vulnerable as areas in Eastern Washington, Oregon and California.  Many of the early accounts of Valley life mention sweeping fires, and the photograph above records just one of the many fires that burned the face of Mount Si. The trees we see on the mountain today are only about eighty years old. 

 

nb fire.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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60F and smoky this morning.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Can't imagine how much worse the smoke was across the west when the acres burned was multiplied by 3 to 5 times as much as was burned in 2020... which is considered a bad year now.   10 million acres burned in 2015, 2017, and 2020.    But there were years in the 1930s when 50 million acres was burning.   What would be unimaginably bad fire seasons now were just the norm back then.    And that pales in comparison to the level of fires in the 1800s.

To Matt's point last night... its an unwinnable situation.    Nature dictates that much more should burn each year and we are holding it back.    And to make matters worse we now have millions of people (like me) living in areas that are supposed to burn and so we are left being forced to suppress fires to save lives and property.    And suppressing fires just increases the natural pressure for more fires.   

Even in my wet area... fire was much more common in the past.    The face of Mt Si used to frequently burn.   People living here back then would be amazed to see how forested it is now.   

https://snoqualmievalleymuseum.org/2020/11/23/from-the-collection-1893-fires/

This past summer huge fires have burned out of control throughout the West, and it is worth remembering that the Snoqualmie Valley is as vulnerable as areas in Eastern Washington, Oregon and California.  Many of the early accounts of Valley life mention sweeping fires, and the photograph above records just one of the many fires that burned the face of Mount Si. The trees we see on the mountain today are only about eighty years old. 

 

nb fire.png

Yep those measures taken in the late 30's onward have totally screwed us. Now every single fire that starts in a Sierra canyon immediately explodes into raging inferno that nobody can stop. I wonder if those fires in the early 1900's burned cooler (ground fires) and produced less smoke even though the acreage was way more? 

Now the fires in California are turning into flammagenitus cloud's and producing their own lightning, and in the case of the Redding fire producing their own F3 tornadoes. The smoke plumes from these blowups are stretching across the entire nation. 

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26 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Yep those measures taken in the late 30's onward have totally screwed us. Now every single fire that starts in a Sierra canyon immediately explodes into raging inferno that nobody can stop. I wonder if those fires in the early 1900's burned cooler (ground fires) and produced less smoke even though the acreage was way more? 

Now the fires in California are turning into flammagenitus cloud's and producing their own lightning, and in the case of the Redding fire producing their own F3 tornadoes. The smoke plumes from these blowups are stretching across the entire nation. 

I remember NWS surveying very strong tornado damage caused by the Bootleg Fire last summer. No structures damaged but left some amazing evidence behind. I didn't know Pyrocumulus clouds could do so much on their own. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
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28 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Yep those measures taken in the late 30's onward have totally screwed us. Now every single fire that starts in a Sierra canyon immediately explodes into raging inferno that nobody can stop. I wonder if those fires in the early 1900's burned cooler (ground fires) and produced less smoke even though the acreage was way more? 

Now the fires in California are turning into flammagenitus cloud's and producing their own lightning, and in the case of the Redding fire producing their own F3 tornadoes. The smoke plumes from these blowups are stretching across the entire nation. 

There's also a significant amount of shrub/steppe/grassland/small forest that used to burn very frequently but has been converted to cropland/agriculture. Plus I assume we have a smaller area today of conifer forests than we did back in the <1930s due to logging and development, so it might be pretty hard to get to those huge numbers today even if we let everything burn. 

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2 hours ago, Kayla said:

I was talking about record breaking cold vs warmth. While we have seen some cold anomalies over the winter months nothing has been record breaking cold besides Feb/March 2019. Versus in 2021 we saw two top tier (top three warmest) months in the summer and this summer has done the same with August coming in all-time record warm. There really is no questioning that sustained warmth has become more common compared to sustained cold no matter where you live.

With that said, I'm not denying this fun fact; Bozeman was one of the few climate locations that actually cooled with its new 1991-2020 climate normals.

In addition to the craziness of Feb-Mar 2019, Dec-Jan 2016-17 was the coldest such stretch in Bozeman since 1978-79, definitely top tier. April 2022 was coldest April since 1975.

We can technically break it down by record-breaking, top tier, coldest in many years, or just really large anomalies, but I'd say Bozeman has done pretty well for some cold months in the past 5-6 years.

All of these months were well below the long term average (which goes back to the late 1800s): Dec 2016, Jan 2017, Dec 2017, Feb 2018, Feb 2019, Mar 2019, Oct 2019, Feb 2021, Apr 2022.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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24 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Yep those measures taken in the late 30's onward have totally screwed us. Now every single fire that starts in a Sierra canyon immediately explodes into raging inferno that nobody can stop. I wonder if those fires in the early 1900's burned cooler (ground fires) and produced less smoke even though the acreage was way more? 

Now the fires in California are turning into flammagenitus cloud's and producing their own lightning, and in the case of the Redding fire producing their own F3 tornadoes. The smoke plumes from these blowups are stretching across the entire nation. 

The notion that these places that are burning now should not be burning and its so much worse now is just false.    It's worse now than in the era of massive fire suppression starting 80 years ago which encompasses the lives of people living today... but there is still much less fire now then there would be in its natural state.  We can only hold back nature for so long.   And a warming climate is just accelerating the pressure for nature to get back to equilibrium. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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On 8/26/2022 at 9:54 PM, snow_wizard said:

It's certainly possible, but the persistence of the January curse can't be ignored.  It has to end sometime though.

Thats the key, it has to end at some point. I think both December and January will give us favorable blocking up in Alaska to drive Arctic air down here. But I'd lean January to deliver the goods. If we get an Arctic Blast in December then I won't feel too bad though if January doesn't deliver again.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like SEA needs to get to 83 today to end up with an average temp of 70 for August... assuming the temp does not drop below 62 this morning.    

An average temp of 70+ for a month has only happened 4 times in SEA history (July 2015, July 2018, August 1967, August 2017).     So this will be the 5th warmest month ever recorded there.   

This will be the warmest August ever at Shawnigan Lake.  Likely the second warmest month ever, though we have an outside shot at equaling July 1958, but I think we will fall just short. 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A lot of these takes are seriously lacking nuance, and as always context. 

The fact we were able to suppress these fires for 80 years, more or less, is relevant. It is also relevant where fires typically burn, and where many of these fires in say the the 1800s were burning. I have read of massive fires in that time period in places like Maine, Michigan, and other parts of the Midwest. We just don't see that anymore for various reasons. So it would be interesting to compare acres burned in Oregon on average to the past decade. And I am sure more acreage burned back then because there was no fire suppression. And we also know of massive fires back then, no one is saying they were unheard of. 

But generally fires today burn more intensely. Fire has always been common on the landscape, but stand killing burns were rare. In the Western Cascades of Oregon on average about once every 200 years. Now pretty much every fire is stand killing it seems. There are a lot of factors that go into this, of course, but it is still relevant because it is a significant change, and not for the better. 

Life expectancy dropped again last year, as Americans we are dying younger. 76.1 years on average now. We could be concerned and ask what steps we can take to turn this around, or we could just say it is inevitable because everyone dies and a long time ago people died much younger. 

The study I posted last night was just focused on the western US and did not include the Midwest or East.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

0z EPS showed a fairly strong signal for ridging over the PNW next weekend as well now.  The snow wizard jinx is alive and well. 

Maybe not... the 12Z GFS is back to the troughy solution for next week similar to the 12Z run yesterday.   

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2552000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Please take your anti-climatechangeismakingeverythingworse narrative elsewhere. 

Seriously, though, if you read that article it does mention that climate change is a factor and is acting to increase the area burned annually. It’s just not the only factor.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

Yep those measures taken in the late 30's onward have totally screwed us. Now every single fire that starts in a Sierra canyon immediately explodes into raging inferno that nobody can stop. I wonder if those fires in the early 1900's burned cooler (ground fires) and produced less smoke even though the acreage was way more?

Frequent fires tend to be lower intensity fires. Just not as much stuff to burn. That said, a ground fire that smolders a lot can still be very smoky. Hot fires tend to burn cleaner. Whether that would increase or decrease overall smoke given those contrary trends (less stuff burning, but a higher proportion of it smoldering) is beyond me.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Indigenous peoples of BC managed their lands through fire for centuries.  Then we started to try to put everything out immediately and here we are.  I linked an article below for anyone interested. 

https://thenarwhal.ca/indigenous-cultural-burning/

BC has moved to often allowing remote fires to burn naturally within set boundaries.  Referred to as modified response 

 

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3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Indigenous peoples of BC managed their lands through fire for centuries.  Then we started to try to put everything out immediately and here we are.  I linked an article below for anyone interested. 

https://thenarwhal.ca/indigenous-cultural-burning/

BC has moved to often allowing remote fires to burn naturally within set boundaries.  Referred to as modified response 

 

Thought at an intellectual level I like the idea of letting fire restore the natural order, it can be difficult down here because of how many people live in the urban-wildland interface. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Smoke not much of an issue in Salem this morning. 

F1165A5C-89B9-49FC-8253-609354280BA3.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This 12z run will probably be one of the cooler ensemble members. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thought at an intellectual level I like the idea of letting fire restore the natural order, it can be difficult down here because of how many people live in the urban-wildland interface. 

Definitely going to be a challenge in some areas as you said.  Obviously BC has vast areas of land that can burn without threat to communities.  

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12z GFS = Too good to be true. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah only got down to 63…19th +60 low a new record for a single year. 

Only three +60 lows here this summer. Dropped to 57F this morning.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z GFS = Too good to be true. 

12Z GEFS looks much less troughy than its 00Z for later next week... it went in the opposite direction as the operational run.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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