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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Frequent fires tend to be lower intensity fires. Just not as much stuff to burn. That said, a ground fire that smolders a lot can still be very smoky. Hot fires tend to burn cleaner. Whether that would increase or decrease overall smoke given those contrary trends (less stuff burning, but a higher proportion of it smoldering) is beyond me.

Yeah I was thinking like the low wispy smoke you see with low intensity fires, versus the 50'k plumes that blot out the sun and rain ash.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... 12Z ECMWF goes crazy with amplification.    At face value its a sunny and cool pattern.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2811200.png

A bit early to look at the DJF 500mb height mean, don't you think? ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Seriously, though, if you read that article it does mention that climate change is a factor and is acting to increase the area burned annually. It’s just not the only factor.

Yeah, I know. It's just so tired and intellectually lazy to label every "bad" thing that happens as a result of climate change, which is happening in the media and even some scientific circles more and more.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Facebook has been blowing up here in Whatcom County with reports of thunder out over the bay and in the Acme area a couple of hours ago.  Mainly cloudy here with a temp of 78 and a DP of 63

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5 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

In addition to the craziness of Feb-Mar 2019, Dec-Jan 2016-17 was the coldest such stretch in Bozeman since 1978-79, definitely top tier. April 2022 was coldest April since 1975.

We can technically break it down by record-breaking, top tier, coldest in many years, or just really large anomalies, but I'd say Bozeman has done pretty well for some cold months in the past 5-6 years.

All of these months were well below the long term average (which goes back to the late 1800s): Dec 2016, Jan 2017, Dec 2017, Feb 2018, Feb 2019, Mar 2019, Oct 2019, Feb 2021, Apr 2022.

Again, you're speaking of anomalies not top tier cold/warmth which is what the discussion was all about. All of those years that you just mentioned (except for 2019 of course) did not even reach top ten coldest.

In those same years (since it seems you have picked the time since I moved here) we have seen: 

  • March 2017, 5th warmest on record
  • May 2017, 3rd warmest 
  • May 2021, 2nd warmest
  • June 2021, 2nd warmest
  • July 2021, 2nd warmest
  • July 2017, 3rd warmest
  • August 2022, warmest on record

Latest 95+ day on record will very likely be set on Saturday.

Relatively speaking for Bozeman, I'll agree with you that climate warming has had less of an effect compared to most other areas in the country but that's not to say that its been immune to it either.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS and 12Z control run are much more ridgy than the operational run at day 10.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-2811200 (1).png

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-2811200.png

Control run looked very Sept 2020. Not what you guys want to see before the rains hit.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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19 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Again, you're speaking of anomalies not top tier cold/warmth which is what the discussion was all about. All of those years that you just mentioned (except for 2019 of course) did not even reach top ten coldest.

In those same years (since it seems you have picked the time since I moved here) we have seen: 

  • March 2017, 5th warmest on record
  • May 2017, 3rd warmest 
  • May 2021, 2nd warmest
  • June 2021, 2nd warmest
  • July 2021, 2nd warmest
  • July 2017, 3rd warmest
  • August 2022, warmest on record

Latest 95+ day on record will very likely be set on Saturday.

Relatively speaking for Bozeman, I'll agree with you that climate warming has had less of an effect compared to most other areas in the country but that's not to say that its been immune to it either.

Feb 2021 and Apr 2022 were just outside the top 10 coldest, for a period of record going back 130 years I'd say that's top tier.

Never said the cold has outdone the warmth in your area, but the original comment I responded to made it sound like there hadn't been much of note besides Feb/Mar 2019, when compared to most places there certainly has been.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Currently 81F.  It has been almost two months in my spot since I've had any measurable rain that didn't dry up within minutes of falling.  Even the long range forecast has slim chances of rain.  We need it, I need it, the people need it.  Everything is still mostly green here, with is shocking, but I really miss the rain.

Otherwise a nice day... again. 

Screen Shot 2022-08-31 at 2.18.32 PM.png

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Only fitting that the last day of meteorological summer polishes it off with yet another 90F burger.

Austin Ekeler Fantasy Outlook And Projection For 2022

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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19 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Phil was trolling with that being the cause... and indirectly it might have been by changing the circulation and causing a quick resurgence of what was a fading Nina.    And for awhile the Nina seemed to be in charge resulting in a spring locally that was similar to 1999 and 2011 in terms of being very cold and wet.    But something has changed since.   And our very Nina-like spring became a very Nino-like summer.

I wouldn’t consider this summer to be niño-like at all. Barely any hint of a STJ, Texas/southern Plains roasting for most of the summer.

More than anything it’s the broad Hadley Cell/sprawling 4CH dominating the pattern for the second consecutive summer, which is a niña-esque quality. It’s just the poleward shift that changed the equation locally in the PNW.

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Depending on the high SLE is going to end August with a monthly mean of either 72.5 or 72.6. So a bit behind 2017, but will either tie 2014 for 2nd hottest or beat them. Basically a high of 93 or higher would get them into sole possession of 2nd place. I think they do it. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I was looking at August 1967. Holy cow... At Silver Falls no other month on record is really even close. July 2015 and August 2017 are maybe within 1.5F or so. Even at SLE they had an average monthly maximum of 91.1, I think it's the only month in their period of record with an average high above 90, but I could be wrong there. No UHI then and much cooler lows, so its fading from the top rankings in terms of monthly mean, but wow, what an aberration for its time.  

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Silver Falls had 15 90+ highs in August 1967, which is just mind blowing. Salem had 18, which is the same number they also had in July 2018. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This heatwave is off the charts for Sept. NWS Reno posted the info below. Reno could have 6 100F days in a row coming up. 

 

Here are some "fun facts" for 
100+ degree days in September from Reno's official climate
records... 

* Prior to 2022, only 8 days in September have ever reached or 
  exceeded 100 degrees, with 3 of those days occurring in 2017, 2 
  days each in 1988 and 2020, and 1 day in 1950.

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Strange day in the model world... the big 3 operational runs (GFS, GEM, ECMWF) all trended more troughy while all 3 of their respective ensembles all trended strongly in the other direction.     Can't remember that ever happening and not sure what to make of it.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like this could be the 2nd hottest month at EUG too. Or at least tied with July 2015. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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