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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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13 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Holy shiiitt.. you're an *******. 

You were sure right on that one.  It doesn't bother me that much. but not cool.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

I haven’t been watching each run closely but It feels like this is the first time we’ve had long range blue over us on an ensemble since…a long time ago

6712F0D5-7BF8-4992-804F-5B7FEE11BB70.png

Good agreement with last night's EPS.  Could be some very enjoyable weather coming up.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nice ECMWF run.

Yeah....it appears the really hot pattern has pretty much broken after the one last gasp next week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....it appears the really hot pattern has pretty much broken after the one last gasp next week.

I am not worried about heat.    Its looks dry and sunny for most of the next 10 days including the holiday weekend.  👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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At this point it appears the change to cooler weather may not have much in the way of rain for week 2.  That part could take a while if we go into NW flow.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not worried about heat.    Its looks dry and sunny for most of the next 10 days including the holiday weekend.  👍

I just think sunny weather is far more enjoyable with comfortable temps, but I know a few on here don't mind heat.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Looks like just one more gasp at the near 90 stuff middle of next week then we're just back comfort level stuff. I'm sure we'll deal with a couple more of these in Sept but it'll just be a blimp. 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At this point it appears the change to cooler weather may not have much in the way of rain for week 2.  That part could take a while if we go into NW flow.

Upper 70s and lows 80s is cool?

Uncomfortable heat like we had at the end of July is not concern at all this time of year.    I am just hoping to extend summery weather as long as possible.  We need payback for that miserable spring!

 

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At this point it appears the change to cooler weather may not have much in the way of rain for week 2.  That part could take a while if we go into NW flow.

We’ll be in Bend the second week of September. Would love to see some 35 - 75 sunny days. 

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37 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

Bad months?  It's ******* summer dude.  Back to the Klonopin.

Banned.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Looks like just one more gasp at the near 90 stuff middle of next week then we're just back comfort level stuff. I'm sure we'll deal with a couple more of these in Sept but it'll just be a blimp. 

One last small chance.   It's very rare in September.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just think sunny weather is far more enjoyable with comfortable temps, but I know a few on here don't mind heat.

I don't think too many people actually like extreme heat other than for the records.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

The clearing was short lived as we are back to drizzle and 57 degrees. 
.01” for the day, .29” for the month. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Longtimer

The 12z runs look pretty tolerable. A shot at heat early next week then pretty nice. 12z Euro is pretty close to us with that trough by hour 240. Would love to see the perma trough that’s been over the GOA the last month or more move over us as wavelengths shorten.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The clearing was short lived as we are back to drizzle and 57 degrees. 
.01” for the day, .29” for the month. 

Of course at your location you somehow managed to squeeze out 0.29" during our driest stretch 🤣

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30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Upper 70s and lows 80s is cool?

Uncomfortable heat like we had at the end of July is not concern at all this time of year.    I am just hoping to extend summery weather as long as possible.  We need payback for that beautiful spring!

 

Fixed. Enough with the incorrect opinions.

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13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The 12z runs look pretty tolerable. A shot at heat early next week then pretty nice. 12z Euro is pretty close to us with that trough by hour 240. Would love to see the perma trough that’s been over the GOA the last month or more move over us as wavelengths shorten.

You mean lengthen.

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Ellensburg currently 70 with a dp of 44.  A real taste of fall in Central WA.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

You mean lengthen.

I was always under the impression that they shortened moving into the winter season. You might know more than me, but from a layman’s perspective I have always observed there are generally more “kinks” in the jet stream during the cool season, which would lead me to think there are shorter wavelengths overall. Whereas in the summer larger, sprawling and generally more muted 500mb features seem to be more common (longer wavelengths)

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Is this why you decided to go to Coeur d’Alene? 

Not really... time was just running out on summer weekends.   And we always squeeze in a trip over here.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, T-Town said:

62 in Cle Elum. Probably lots of good spots available at the pool at Suncadia. 

76 here and partly sunny.   A little breezy but really nice.   Warm but not hot.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

76 here and partly sunny.   A little breezy but really nice.   Warm but not hot.

Sounds nice. Sun is coming out in T Town now and up to 71. Turning out to be a pretty nice day. 

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Only 65 at 1:30 here.  A little bit of cool air damming along the West Slopes of the Cascades.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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36 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I was always under the impression that they shortened moving into the winter season. You might know more than me, but from a layman’s perspective I have always observed there are generally more “kinks” in the jet stream during the cool season, which would lead me to think there are shorter wavelengths overall. Whereas in the summer larger, sprawling and generally more muted 500mb features seem to be more common (longer wavelengths)

I think summer and winter are longer and fall and spring are shorter.  Not certain though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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28 minutes ago, T-Town said:

62 in Cle Elum. Probably lots of good spots available at the pool at Suncadia. 

Probably. 

I noticed there are even some 40s in the higher elevations of the Wenatchee Mountains today.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... coolest air is today.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1661601600-1661601600-1662897600-10.gif

I'm a little disappointed.  Last nights EPS had more of a -PNA -EPO signature which would have meant great weather, but not as warm.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Yesterdays extended GFS ensemble looked good for the second half of September with a persistent -PNA developing.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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29 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm a little disappointed.  Last nights EPS had more of a -PNA -EPO signature which would have meant great weather, but not as warm.

I wouldn't be totally surprised if it's generally warmer than normal into November.   But also wouldn't be surprised if it crashes hard in November. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm a little disappointed.  Last nights EPS had more of a -PNA -EPO signature which would have meant great weather, but not as warm.

I mean the long range part of the run doesn’t really give you any information aside from there’s lots of ensemble spread trending toward the warm side. It’s light orange from the Aleutians to the upper Midwest.

BEA89EC5-FB1D-421C-B032-91C4CBDCB661.png
 

Spaghetti charts show this as well but also illustrate the underlying ensemble spread better.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Many times the EPS looks chilly in the long range.    Probably going to stay general warm.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I was always under the impression that they shortened moving into the winter season. You might know more than me, but from a layman’s perspective I have always observed there are generally more “kinks” in the jet stream during the cool season, which would lead me to think there are shorter wavelengths overall. Whereas in the summer larger, sprawling and generally more muted 500mb features seem to be more common (longer wavelengths)

You may be confused amplitude and wavelength. There is a relationship between temperature and wavelength… hotter objects generally have shorter wavelength and colder have longer. That being said, as we transition to fall, you can expect lengthen wavelengths. 

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

71 with some sunbreaks pretty nice day. 

Very comfortable.  Only 67 here at the present time.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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  • Longtimer
27 minutes ago, Cloud said:

You may be confused amplitude and wavelength. There is a relationship between temperature and wavelength… hotter objects generally have shorter wavelength and colder have longer. That being said, as we transition to fall, you can expect lengthen wavelengths. 

Definitely don’t think I’m the one who’s confused right here. I’m not talking about thermal wavelengths. That’s something entirely different. I’m talking about 500mb wavelengths. Rossby waves. Slow down and read my post again.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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53 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I mean the long range part of the run doesn’t really give you any information aside from there’s lots of ensemble spread trending toward the warm side. It’s light orange from the Aleutians to the upper Midwest.

BEA89EC5-FB1D-421C-B032-91C4CBDCB661.png
 

Spaghetti charts show this as well but also illustrate the underlying ensemble spread better.

Week two could still end up pretty good.  Pretty interesting to see a significant fluctuation in the long wave features from the 0z to 12z on the EPS.  The 0z had 573 heights over SEA and the 12z 579.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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  • Longtimer
Just now, snow_wizard said:

Week two could still end up pretty good.  Pretty interesting to see a significant fluctuation in the long wave features from the 0z to 122 on the EPS.  The 0z had 573 heights over SEA and the 12z 579.

I suppose so. I don’t pay too much attention to the mean 500mb height in the long range because it just a mean. It’s not even any type of forecasted pattern. It’s a product of the averaging of many different ensemble members.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Definitely don’t think I’m the one who’s confused right here. I’m not talking about thermal wavelengths. That’s something entirely different. I’m talking about 500mb wavelengths. Rossby waves. Slow down and read my post again.

Your original post made no mention of such thing. In that regard, it left a lot of room for interpretation.  

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Your original post made no mention of such thing. In that regard, it left a lot of room for interpretation.  

That could be. Maybe why Phil misread it too. I guess I figured it would be apparent because my original comment was responding to a 500mb map someone posted, which illustrated the shortening wavelengths in some regards. I guess it was my bad for assuming everyone would know what I meant.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That could be. Maybe why Phil misread it too. I guess I figured it would be apparent because my original comment was responding to a 500mb map someone posted, which illustrated the shortening wavelengths in some regards. I guess it was my bad for assuming everyone would know what I meant.

I thought you were pretty clear that it was Rossby waves you were discussing:

Quote

I was always under the impression that they shortened moving into the winter season. You might know more than me, but from a layman’s perspective I have always observed there are generally more “kinks” in the jet stream during the cool season, which would lead me to think there are shorter wavelengths overall. Whereas in the summer larger, sprawling and generally more muted 500mb features seem to be more common (longer wavelengths) [emphasis added]

 

It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I was always under the impression that they shortened moving into the winter season. You might know more than me, but from a layman’s perspective I have always observed there are generally more “kinks” in the jet stream during the cool season, which would lead me to think there are shorter wavelengths overall. Whereas in the summer larger, sprawling and generally more muted 500mb features seem to be more common (longer wavelengths)

No wavelengths increase into the cold season across the circumglobal middle latitudes. Subtropical highs/etc expand poleward during the warm season but the the wave number is higher.

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2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I mean the long range part of the run doesn’t really give you any information aside from there’s lots of ensemble spread trending toward the warm side. It’s light orange from the Aleutians to the upper Midwest.

BEA89EC5-FB1D-421C-B032-91C4CBDCB661.png
 

Spaghetti charts show this as well but also illustrate the underlying ensemble spread better.

Correct.

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WILDFIRE UPDATE  

Happy Birthday! 

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/27/22  

Washington - 4 (4 new fires today. Cool weather helped Washington State today overall. The Palisades Fire has burned 41 acres in NW Spokane has caused for some evacuations.  Overnight crews kept the fire from growing and thankfully no structures have been burned. Crews hope to contain the fire today.  There are four large fires in the state. The total number of fires creeps down from 66 to 62.) Total: 62

Oregon - 2 (2 new fires in the state again today.  There are three large fires in the state.  A new fire, the RV Fire is fast moving and has already burned 150 acres.  It is NW of Wasco. The majority of fires are in the NE corner of the state. The number of large fires has increased from three to six.  The new large fires are the RV Fire near Wasco, the Crockets Knob Fire near John Day, the Hat Top Fire in remote nowhere, SE of Ontario, and the Rum Creek Fire near Grants Pass The total number of fires decreases from 36 to 27.) Total: 36

Idaho - 3(3 new fires in the state today.  After a continued growth of fires the past two weeks, having a day with only three new fires is considered a win.   We are back to three large fires in the state. The total number of fires remains at 77.) Total: 77

California - 16 (16 new fires in the state of California. There are five large fires in the state, one up from yesterday. There are now more fires in the southern part of the state than the northern part. The total drops from 57 to 51. ) Total: 51

British Columbia - 49 (49 new blazes in the past 24hrs.  Crews have lost ground on fires in Revelstoke, which seems to be an ongoing issue for BC Firefighters this season.  They don't ever seem to have the upper hand and the fires get out of control.  Sadly that is happening again. Four new fires near Nelson. There are three large fires in the province. The total amount of fires drops from 241 to 234.) Total: 234

Who Has had The Most Amount of Fires (Ranked by days in which they've had the most fires, only counting days we've kept track here.)

1. British Columbia - 34 days with the most wildfires

2. Oregon - 2 days with the most wildfires.

SMOKE UPDATE

Washington Sate as a whole is smoke free except for isolated areas within the Kittitas Valley, around Lake Wenatchee.  There is also an isolated area in northwest Spokane. 

Conditions worsen in NW of Grants Pass creating hazy skies, but low level smoke is minimal.  Within hours, Medford and Klamath Falls could see a new batch of smoke from California.  Brookings is also seeing unhealthy air conditions due to smoke from California.  A shift os winds has caused the smoke in California to bunch up, move offshore, and then return inland more concentrated than ever.  Medford and Klamath Falls will see worsening air quality in the next 24hrs.

Smoke from California is degrading air quality in the Boise metro.  Towns in the Bitterroot Range are also seeing smokey conditions.  The Long Valley remains smokey. 

As said yesterday, smoke has left the Lower Mainland of BC.  Cities inland near fires are experiencing smokey conditions and poor air quality. 

As warned the past two days, very heavy smoke has blanketed much of Northern California.  Yreka, Mt. Shasta, Weaverville, even Eureka are seeing moderate to hazardous air conditions.  Very thick, heavy smoke is blanketing the region. Garberville currently has the worse air quality in the country, and this time coastal California is not immune from the smoke that drifted offshore, and is now moving back inland. Moderate conditions are as far south as Ukiah and Chico. East of Shasta out toward Tulelake, conditions are very poor as the smoke drifts NE towards Idaho.  Localized smoke from fires near Porterville has made skies hazy from Fresno to Bakersfield.   Smoke is also effected specifically Glendale and its surrounds.  The Yucca Valley is seeing isolated poor to hazardous air conditions due to wildfire smoke as well. 

spokane-fire-district-10.jpg.26fc83c3d26159af0fd5ebaa8eb5825a.jpg

The new Palisades Fire in NW Spokane.  Crews hope to contain it today.

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  • Longtimer
9 minutes ago, Phil said:

No wavelengths increase into the cold season across the circumglobal middle latitudes. Subtropical highs/etc expand poleward during the warm season but the the wave number is higher.

I still feel like we’re talking about two different things

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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