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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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32 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The heat being shown in California is absolutely mind-boggling. 122F in Sacramento and this would crush its all time high of 114F. 

Something is wrong with the model output. Forecast is only for 88F in Tahoe 90 miles away and our Sept record is 94F. If Sacramento were going to crush their record I would think we would as well. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

5130611F-6BC8-42C3-A93E-C96EB2736222.jpeg

502504A2-A024-4246-AB7E-7BEA327821E4.jpeg

Seven years ago today... August windstorm of 2015. Of all the years to have an active late summer jet and an early start to fall...

That was such a crazy event! Was in Sun Lakes when it happened, the wave action was amazing!! Came home to a mess and no power the next day. Nearly 3 days without power. 

D0A143C0-5D4E-44EC-8F24-0E8F71092B6D.jpeg

A0916945-B06E-4BC3-AD14-A38BB04D3372.jpeg

74AE06C8-35C2-478C-BBDC-B39658FBE980.jpeg

8B86C20F-1F0B-4379-B483-2EBFD4FE09B6.jpeg

A83C3FE8-FA79-4A13-8F2B-EF05E561D92F.jpeg

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Didn’t it say 118 for PDX in June 2021 at one point? That didn’t verify but it did get within 2°F.

Yeah I believe it did. 120+ is a massive stretch for early September though.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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9 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Something is wrong with the model output. Forecast is only for 88F in Tahoe 90 miles away and our Sept record is 94F. If Sacramento were going to crush their record I would think we would as well. 

Downsloping perhaps? 🤔 

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38 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Something is wrong with the model output. Forecast is only for 88F in Tahoe 90 miles away and our Sept record is 94F. If Sacramento were going to crush their record I would think we would as well. 

Tougher to warm the upper levels as much this time of year. Generally, the atmosphere cools from the top down.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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12Z EPS and control run are warm for the next 2 weeks.   Control run shows a very brief trough around day 11 but the ridge pops right back up afterwards.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Kayla said:

No way this verifies but goes to show the magnitude of this ridge over the holiday weekend. Absolutely devastating.

Screen Shot 2022-08-29 at 12.43.05 PM.png

Nice bit of summer perfection for Sacramento people to get out and enjoy before the relentless chill and gloom descend once more ;)

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16 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah I believe it did. 120+ is a massive stretch for early September though.

If 115+ is achievable in the Willamette Valley now, 120+ in the Central Valley sounds believable to me. Even figuring in that it is now September, 110+ seems very easily achievable.

Most of those records are for a climate that no longer exists.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If 115+ is achievable in the Willamette Valley now, 120+ in the Central Valley sounds believable to me. Even figuring in that it is now September, 110+ seems very easily achievable.

Most of those records are for a climate that no longer exists.

115 definitely seems plausible with this setup for them.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

@Phil does where the PV initially sets up have any impact on how it behaves in fall/winter?

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-nhemi-z500-1661731200-1661731200-1663027200-5.gif

Not this early, no. And the developing PV is in the stratosphere, not the 500mb level.

Watch the evolution of the low frequency component in the tropics, monsoonal circulations, and subtropical stratospheric temperatures for clues as to how quickly the PV will wrap up.

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Red Bluff hit 118 in September 1988, so 120 is certainly doable for the northern Sacramento Valley.

Yowza. Still, I am going to wait until tomorrow. If the models are still spitting out 120's, time to take them seriously.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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33 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Something is wrong with the model output. Forecast is only for 88F in Tahoe 90 miles away and our Sept record is 94F. If Sacramento were going to crush their record I would think we would as well. 

You can clearly see from here it'll be quite windy at lower elevation and wind direction indicates a strong downslope. I would imagine that you being at 6,000' in elevation won't have to deal with that vs. Sacramento's sea level elevation with very strong downslope. The heat looked trapped. 

sfcgustmax_006h_mph.us_state_ca_n.png

sfcwind_mslp.us_state_ca_n.png

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30 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Red Bluff hit 118 in September 1988, so 120 is certainly doable for the northern Sacramento Valley.

Only 108 in 1988 at Sacramento though. Euro says 122 for them which is beyond comprehensible in early September.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Some red flag conditions coming up. A last gasp of delight for some. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Knocks on wood, I'm kinda shocked at how tame the fire season has been so far, given how hot its been for the last month and a half here.  Had to have been the wet, cool spring and the occasion Wet Tstorms we've experienced throughout the summer (although those can also be a curse)

Usually at least in the last 5 years since I've been here, we've had at least a few Smoke filled days by now.  Not complaining considering the heat

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39 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s not too late for a last-minute smokefest!

Pretty much what happened in 2020 here. What was overall a rather pleasant summer turned to a nightmare at the very end. 

That whole Labor Day weekend was actually really nice. I worked in the yard most of the weekend, the yard was looking great and then that whole mess happened. It was unfortunate too, we had to open all the gates so the animals we couldn't evacuate would have an escape route if the fire came. Obviously they ate everything in the garden, and a lot of the shrubs around the house. Everything pretty much died or went dormant from the heavy smoke, a lot of the trees lost their leaves, but fortunately it did not seem to impact them long term. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Some elevated smoke moving in down here in Salem. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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48 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

It definitely felt like fall this morning with a low of 53. 

Been working on building a deck over the course of the past month, and finally got to a point where we have something we can use (just can't invite any friends over with young kids  😁).

I've never had a backyard I could "enjoy."   It has either been too small, had too much slope or been too wet/mucky.

Everywhere I have lived had back decks along the lines of what is shown in the "before" shot.  It was nice to be able to sit out and enjoy the evening last night.  All we have left is the stairs, railings, and a pergola and we will be good to go!

 

IMG_3779.thumb.jpg.8bc06bb7f29185fe480ae25e171975d3.jpgIMG_4326.thumb.jpg.b62342d158e52bb24b386a5d39297afe.jpgIMG_4327.thumb.jpg.b6146893330d6eb3a9be99d3dab3324e.jpgIMG_4370.thumb.jpg.affce86079c37036e13d83b4a596952c.jpg

I absolutely love building decks. I get all giddy when I find out a friend/co-worker/family member needs help with one. Plus it’s always better to go screw something up at someone else’s house as opposed to your own.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I absolutely love building decks. I get all giddy when I find out a friend/co-worker/family member needs help with one. Plus it’s always better to go screw something up at someone else’s house as opposed to your own.

I have a buddy who started out by doing construction for 15 years, then was basically a project manager building high end custom homes in the area.  He is now a facilities manager for an investment/holdings group and takes care of a few houses, restaurants and a manufacturing facility.  He loves doing this type of stuff too, and I "hired" him to design and lead this effort.  I have another buddy who helped out who enjoys doing this type of stuff.  We went from the 3rd picture to the 4th picture in about 6-7 hours.  It's pretty crazy how quickly it went up!

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21 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I have a buddy who started out by doing construction for 15 years, then was basically a project manager building high end custom homes in the area.  He is now a facilities manager for an investment/holdings group and takes care of a few houses, restaurants and a manufacturing facility.  He loves doing this type of stuff too, and I "hired" him to design and lead this effort.  I have another buddy who helped out who enjoys doing this type of stuff.  We went from the 3rd picture to the 4th picture in about 6-7 hours.  It's pretty crazy how quickly it went up!

I spent a summer building a deck at our Kent house and then a second summer extending it to surround our hot tub. I had no idea what I was doing but my father in law was a carpenter and someone who could basically build anything and he provided the basic engineering info I needed and I was able to do the work. I’m not sure I would say I enjoyed it, but I definitely felt a sense of accomplishment at the result. 

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3 hours ago, Kayla said:

Ughh, models are ugly this morning. Endless torch. At this rate PDX is going to break 2018 for the highest number of 90's which I thought was untouchable for at least another decade.

Some hope for the second week of September to bring some actual average temperatures, hopefully.

PDX turning into Sacramento. 

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86 in North Bend... 85 up here... 83 at SEA.   

Definitely noticing longer shadows by mid-afternoon now.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

91 at SLE. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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And that's another one!! 90F burger!!!

Bengals Insider Has Encouraging Update On RB Joe Mixon - The Spun: What's  Trending In The Sports World Today

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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23 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

OLM cracked the 40s last couple mornings.

Let me know when KLMT has a 35, then we know early Fall is knocking.

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

It definitely felt like fall this morning with a low of 53. 

Been working on building a deck over the course of the past month, and finally got to a point where we have something we can use (just can't invite any friends over with young kids  😁).

I've never had a backyard I could "enjoy."   It has either been too small, had too much slope or been too wet/mucky.

Everywhere I have lived had back decks along the lines of what is shown in the "before" shot.  It was nice to be able to sit out and enjoy the evening last night.  All we have left is the stairs, railings, and a pergola and we will be good to go!

 

IMG_3779.thumb.jpg.8bc06bb7f29185fe480ae25e171975d3.jpgIMG_4326.thumb.jpg.b62342d158e52bb24b386a5d39297afe.jpgIMG_4327.thumb.jpg.b6146893330d6eb3a9be99d3dab3324e.jpgIMG_4370.thumb.jpg.affce86079c37036e13d83b4a596952c.jpg

Looks awesome!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Posted (edited)

It was drive your tractor to work day! Was a tad chilly this morning without the heated steering wheel. 

D45AF590-E526-4C47-B291-5C641CFEA9C9.jpeg

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I absolutely love building decks. I get all giddy when I find out a friend/co-worker/family member needs help with one. Plus it’s always better to go screw something up at someone else’s house as opposed to your own.

My side job I do on weekends sometimes is installing aluminum/cable railings on decks that’s what I was doing out in maple valley today. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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In last week we now have soooo many ripe tomatoes to harvest.    And so many more coming.    Definitely a success this year despite the plants almost looking dead in early June when it would not stop raining.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, SnowWillarrive said:

PDX turning into Sacramento. 

Dry streaks like these coming to a city near you. 

247120022_4491101747592465_4146267625802142494_n.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

Knocks on wood, I'm kinda shocked at how tame the fire season has been so far, given how hot its been for the last month and a half here.  Had to have been the wet, cool spring and the occasion Wet Tstorms we've experienced throughout the summer (although those can also be a curse)

Usually at least in the last 5 years since I've been here, we've had at least a few Smoke filled days by now.  Not complaining considering the heat

I know. My area has had traces of smoke..the kind where you can faintly smell it for an hour or so before it disappates but very mild compared to recent years. Heat and wind in CA may change that.

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10 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Dry streaks like these coming to a city near you. 

247120022_4491101747592465_4146267625802142494_n.png

Today is the 53rd dry day in a row at PDX, putting it on the top 5 list for dry streaks: image.thumb.png.de2dc9fa7f605afe691ed143d1c67c74.png(this isn't updated yet though)

We should easily pass 1960 and maybe even get into the top 3! What a change from the wettest AMJ period on record.

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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85 for a high at SEA.   Even the GFS was 1 degree too cold.

The ECMWF was 6 degrees too cold and should be decommissioned immediately.   Its an embarrassment to the entire continent of Europe.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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81/55 today here. 80 #26 this year. Atleast one more possibly 2 +85s to finish the month which would tie us with 2009 for +85 days (17). 2018 had 18 and 2015 had 19. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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57 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

My side job I do on weekends sometimes is installing aluminum/cable railings on decks that’s what I was doing out in maple valley today. 

Welcome to town! It’s definitely always at least a few degrees warmer here than closer to the sound as I’m sure you can tell.

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5 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Welcome to town! It’s definitely always at least a few degrees warmer here than closer to the sound as I’m sure you can tell.

We were working on a house on shady lake today and yeah felt pretty hot. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

85 for a high at SEA.   Even the GFS was 1 degree too cold.

The ECMWF was 6 degrees too cold and should be decommissioned immediately.   Its an embarrassment to the entire continent of Europe.   

You can simp for the GFS all you want but it’ll never hold a candle to the ECMWF.

At month’s end I’ll post the 2m bias for August. Spoiler alert: The GFS bias is larger by several degrees.

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Just now, Phil said:

You can simp for the GFS all you want but it’ll never hold a candle to the ECMWF.

At month’s end I’ll post the 2m bias for August. Spoiler alert: The GFS bias is larger by several degrees.

I think the GFS is okay for PDX because we don't have a large body of water right next to us for surface temps but I'm not fully sure.

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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