August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

56 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

A country that I’ve never been to but which I have read about and which has captivated me. Would especially like to see Valparaíso and the rain forests of the south.

If you want an adventure, sailing around Cape Horn would be challenging and exciting at the same time. That would be first on my bucket list once I get to visit.

 

[snow_wizard]

Nice looking GFS run tonight.  Quite a few troughs over the next two weeks if it's true.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Nice looking GFS run tonight.  Quite a few troughs over the next two weeks if it's true.

How about nice torchy ridges? How much of those?

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, The Swamp said:

This could legitimately be the last few nice summer days coming up.

Get out and enjoy them.  Looks like a pretty cloudy weekend coming up.

Models will start to waffle and wobble and before you know it the rain will be back until next July.

There will be plenty of enjoyable weather still.  I'm hoping for some cool and clear type days in Sept and Oct, with some rainy days thrown in of course.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

How about nice torchy ridges? How much of those?

Razzmatazz!!! 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

How about nice torchy ridges? How much of those?

I'm fine with a roller coaster.  It's obvious the pattern is breaking.

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Right, but the post that began this thread sounded like a claim that China was having such a bad heat wave because they were the #1 CO₂ emitter. To the extent that global warming is causing that heat wave, the cause is all the CO₂ emitted anywhere, not just China’s CO₂. There’s been some pretty awful droughts (some likely exacerbated by climate change) in African countries that emit very little CO₂.

 

Why does everyone assume it's entirely man caused?  There is a natural cycle to all of this as well.  The Medieval warm period, little ice age, current warm period, etc.  As I've mentioned before they have found evidence that Glacier National Park had no glaciers just prior to the little ice age.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

22 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Why does everyone assume it's entirely man caused?  There is a natural cycle to all of this as well.  The Medieval warm period, little ice age, current warm period, etc.  As I've mentioned before they have found evidence that Glacier National Park had no glaciers just prior to the little ice age.

Because it's literally been over a million years since CO₂ concentrations were this high, and when they were, the Earth was significantly warmer.

https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/climate-milestone-earths-co2-level-passes-400-ppm

[RentonHill]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Because it's literally been over a million years since CO₂ concentrations were this high, and when they were, the Earth was significantly warmer.

https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/climate-milestone-earths-co2-level-passes-400-ppm

And your post didn’t even make that assumption 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Translation: the ensemble mean briefly dips toward normal on a couple of occasions between long stretches in the +5ºC to +7ºC above normal range.

Sure sounds like 1950 to me!

[Phil]

42 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Because it's literally been over a million years since CO₂ concentrations were this high, and when they were, the Earth was significantly warmer.

https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/climate-milestone-earths-co2-level-passes-400-ppm

The reason the earth was relatively warm through the Miocene was largely due to different configuration of continents/oceans. And the subsequent inception of the Cenozoic ice age occurred with CO2 concentrations much higher than today.

The combination of the building Himalayas altering planetary waves/eddy transports and the widening Atlantic Ocean is what ultimately terminated the Miocene epoch and triggered the ice age cycles.

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

The reason the earth was warm during the Miocene was largely due to different configuration of continents/oceans. And the subsequent inception of the first ice age cycle occurred with CO2 concentrations higher than today.

The combination of the building Himalayas altering planetary waves/eddy transports and the widening Atlantic Ocean is what ultimately terminated the Miocene epoch and triggered the ice age cycles.

Citations??

[Skagit Weather]

2 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Yes to Chile. It's a first world country and most developed nation in South America. I love their unique geography with the long South Pacific coastline and the huge Andes mountains to the east. They also have such a diverse climate. The ocean and mountains are not far away from each other. I could see myself living there in the future for like a year or so. They got great seafood due to its proximity to the Pacific.

 

It's funny you mention the food. The seafood is fresh, but many Chileans have no idea how to cook it. The only time I had good seafood was at international restaurants such as Peruvian. Even decently upscale places generally overcooked their fish. The food in general is terrible in the country unless you like northern European bland. They put half a tub of mayonnaise on everything (one of their national dishes is the "completo" which is a hot dog with more mayonnaise than hot dog) and I swear they're allergic to spice. Their cocktails and produce though are fantastic!

I guess to add a weather element to this post, Chile has such a unique climate. Down in the south you have some of the wettest temperate locations in the world with almost continuous year round rainfall while in the north you have the Atacama Desert and the driest location in the world. Santiago itself has quite a similar climate to San Jose, CA with slightly less rain and slightly cooler lows from more of a continental influence (and higher elevation). Unfortunately it's situated in a basin so it suffers from quite bad pollution like LA did a couple decades ago.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

The reason the earth was relatively warm through the Miocene was largely due to different configuration of continents/oceans. And the subsequent inception of the Cenozoic ice age occurred with CO2 concentrations much higher than today.

What was solar radiation like then?

Come on, you’re not seriously arguing that you can go from ~275 ppm to over 400 ppm (that’s like a 45% increase), and not see any measurable effect on temperature!

[Skagit Weather]

Just barely bumped over 80F here today after a low of 52F. Don't think it will be too much warmer tomorrow, but we'll see.

[TacomaWx]

Wow euros looking wet. 

[TacomaWx]

Gfs cmc and euro for this weekends system. 

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Wow euros looking wet. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Pretty significant rain for early September on the euro but nice to see it’s looking like we could get some decent rain in the short term too. Looks like all the operational models show some type of rain event of varying degrees around day 10 but the long range is very low confidence right now. 

[Skagit Weather]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Wow euros looking wet. 

Haven't seen rain on Labor Day weekend at SEA since 2015 so I guess you could say we're due.

[RCola]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

The reason the earth was relatively warm through the Miocene was largely due to different configuration of continents/oceans. And the subsequent inception of the Cenozoic ice age occurred with CO2 concentrations much higher than today.

The combination of the building Himalayas altering planetary waves/eddy transports and the widening Atlantic Ocean is what ultimately terminated the Miocene epoch and triggered the ice age cycles.

Lurker here, but just wanted to point something concrete out of this messy figure, in plain English. The red spike at Mauna Loa doesn't seem at all impressive when you look at the past 60 million years. However, that the spike is happening over a span of 50 years instead of thousands or millions of years is what is impressive and unnatural. Yes, we've had CO2 in the atmosphere at much higher concentrations in the past, largely due to natural variability, but the rate (not concentration) at which CO2 is increasing in the atmosphere today is unprecedented. Does it mean a warming atmosphere? Yes. Does it mean everything the media claims it does? Not necessarily. But, regardless, it does show you that humans can have a tremendous impact on our atmosphere.

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Citations??

Mudelsee et al, 2014 is a good place to start if you’re interested in the EOT/cenozoic glacial inception.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013RG000440

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Skagit Weather said:

Haven't seen rain on Labor Day weekend at SEA since 2015 so I guess you could say we're due.

Really difficult forecasting past a few days out due to a typhoon in the western pacific right now. Could easily end up being a warm Labor Day too at this point just depends on how close the troughing gets. 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Mudelsee et al, 2014 is a good place to start if you’re interested in the EOT/cenozoic glacial inception.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013RG000440

Hey thanks. Someone like you could probably pull a bunch of crap out of their a** and nobody would question you

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Really difficult forecasting past a few days out due to a typhoon in the western pacific right now. Could easily end up being a warm Labor Day too at this point just depends on how close the troughing gets. 

We need the usual people to start jinxing the hell out of that Labor Day weekend trough!    Talk about it as if it's already happened and how it's the coldest September trough since the dinosaurs roamed the Earth. 

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, RCola said:

Lurker here, but just wanted to point something concrete out of this messy figure, in plain English. The red spike at Mauna Loa doesn't seem at all impressive when you look at the past 60 million years. However, that the spike is happening over a span of 50 years instead of thousands or millions of years is what is impressive and unnatural. Yes, we've had CO2 in the atmosphere at much higher concentrations in the past, largely due to natural variability, but the rate (not concentration) at which CO2 is increasing in the atmosphere today is unprecedented. Does it mean a warming atmosphere? Yes. Does it mean everything the media claims it does? Not necessarily. But, regardless, it does show you that humans can have a tremendous impact on our atmosphere.

Thanks for posting!

Agreed, which is precisely the reason why it’s important to determine both climate sensitivity and transient response to external radiative forcing(s).

However both are likely state dependent, which is problematic. Knowing how large internal variability in heat flows/budgeting can be absent any anthropogenic activity, untangling that web (and its corresponding effects on climate sensitivity itself) is extremely difficult if not impossible.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Euro gave me a tummy ache.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Euro gave me a tummy ache.

Looks better than 12z?

At least out there it does. Not so much here.

[RCola]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Which is precisely the reason why it’s important to determine both climate sensitivity and transient response to external radiative forcing(s).

However both are likely state dependent, which is problematic. Knowing how large internal variability in heat flows/budgeting can be absent any anthropogenic activity, untangling that web (and its corresponding effects on climate sensitivity itself) is extremely difficult if not impossible.

I agree it's a challenge, but I have faith that 21st century mathematicians and atmospheric scientists are up for the task. There are plenty of statistical methods to untangle these different responses. The limiting reagent is the quality and quantity of the data that's needed, which will improve over time. If we get access to quantum computing by the end of this century, the skies the limit.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Euro gave me a tummy ache.

So ironic coming from you.   Seriously.   

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Looks better than 12z?

At least out there it does. Not so much here.

Would be great to see it verify.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, RCola said:

I agree it's a challenge, but I have faith that 21st century mathematicians and atmospheric scientists are up for the task. There are plenty of statistical methods to untangle these different responses. The limiting reagent is the quality and quantity of the data that's needed, which will improve over time. If we get access to quantum computing by the end of this century, the skies the limit.

Yup the lack of computing power is what’s holding us back at the moment. The most important physics have to be parameterized and resolution is mediocre relative to the small scale on which these processes often occur.

I don’t know much about the theory of quantum computing but it sounds interesting. Will have to learn more about it.

[TacomaWx]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We need the usual people to start jinxing the hell out of that Labor Day weekend trough!    Talk about it as if it's already happened and how it's the coldest September trough since the dinosaurs roamed the Earth. 

Lol…definitely way too early to be excited about it but there should be some rain in the short term. Hopefully it can really target the higher terrain in WA and OR. 

[snow_wizard]

31 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Wow euros looking wet. 

Not to mention one hell of a ride on the temps.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Eujunga said:

Translation: the ensemble mean briefly dips toward normal on a couple of occasions between long stretches in the +5ºC to +7ºC above normal range.

Very pessimistic take.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Very pessimistic take.

It described exactly what the GEFS looks like.

[RentonHill]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So ironic coming from you.   Seriously.   

Now you starting

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol…definitely way too early to be excited about it but there should be some rain in the short term. Hopefully it can really target the higher terrain in WA and OR. 

Yeah... the 00Z EPS mean and control run don't look too troughy for next weekend.   

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Now you starting

No.   But you have to admit it's ironic coming from vomit emoji guy.   

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

No.   But you have to admit it's ironic coming from vomit emoji guy.   

Seems….expected?