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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Is the Euro still cranking out the 120’s for the Sacramento Valley? If so, I would say those odds are low.

12Z ECMWF for Monday and Tuesday which are now shown to be the hottest days down there... ugly

ecmwf-deterministic-norcal-t2m_f_max6-2422400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-norcal-t2m_f_max6-2508800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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87 at SEA, will they make it??

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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  • Longtimer
50 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Up to 92 here. This week sucks. Ready for temperatures in the 70’s for highs. 

Right there with you. Good for drying out the split firewood, but I am so ready for seasonal September weather. Can be some of the most pleasant days of the year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

117 here. Lucky you with the cooling effects of Commencement Bay. 

Lol…just got up to 85 here. Pretty toasty considering September is less than 36 hours away. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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Might have a shot at one of the few cool Septembers this century coming up.  Very speculative at this point of course, but there is decent model support for it.  Yesterday's ECMWF weeklies showed -PNA for a good part of the month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol…just got up to 85 here. Pretty toasty considering September is less than 36 hours away. 

It's pushing 90 here, but it's way different than having hot weather in July.  A much smaller part of the day is uncomfortable, and the house is still cool thanks to the cool nights lately.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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  • Longtimer
4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Might have a shot at one of the few cool Septembers this century coming up.  Very speculative at this point of course, but there is decent model support for it.  Yesterday's ECMWF weeklies showed -PNA for a good part of the month.

Probably not this year. But who knows. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Might have a shot at one of the few cool Septembers this century coming up.  Very speculative at this point of course, but there is decent model support for it.  Yesterday's ECMWF weeklies showed -PNA for a good part of the month.

We’ve just had several cool Septembers in a row, and literally all of the models are showing temperatures in the normal to above-normal range for almost all of the next two weeks.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Might have a shot at one of the few cool Septembers this century coming up.  Very speculative at this point of course, but there is decent model support for it.  Yesterday's ECMWF weeklies showed -PNA for a good part of the month.

Well you might have just jinxed it!  I think you said that in late June for July and in late July for August.   You might want to predict a record warm September at this point.   😀        

Side note... the EPS shows basically warmer than normal 850mb temps for the entire run which takes us to the middle of September.    That is not a strong signal for a cooler than normal month ahead... but obviously it can still happen.    

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21 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol…just got up to 85 here. Pretty toasty considering September is less than 36 hours away. 

87 here. Seatac is stuck at 88. Might fall just short of 90 again. Still time though. 

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  • Longtimer

88.5 currently. PROBABLY our last shot at 90 this year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Is the Euro still cranking out the 120’s for the Sacramento Valley? If so, I would say those odds are low.

They be cranking 115-116 now instead of 120s. WIN!! 
This would still break its all time high. 

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5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

3pm obs got SEA at 90. Also quite breezy out.  Still got an hour or so left if it didn’t already happened. 

Been at 90 for awhile now... but this happened last Thursday as well and the inter-hour observations didn't count due to rounding.    It's happening earlier today so maybe it will stick.

Screenshot_20220830-153709_Chrome.jpg

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2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

I love Sacramento. I used to live in Yolo County where the summers are hot and the winters cool with fog and frost. 105 was a hot day. Can't imagine that kind of heat esp with school starting.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Been at 90 for awhile now... but this happened last Thursday as well and the inter-hour observations didn't count due to rounding.    It's happening earlier today so maybe it will stick.

Screenshot_20220830-153709_Chrome.jpg

I just made a post about this! 😆😆

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6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I just made a post about this! 😆😆

It's crazy because 32C is 89.6 and 33C is 91.4

There is an important 1.8F in between there including 90 degrees!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It's crazy because 32C is 89.6 and 33C is 91.4

There is an important 1.8F in between there including 90 degrees!

89.6 really should round up to 90 if one is reporting whole degrees. My math teacher would have made a red check mark in our rounding lesson if I had rounded 89.6 to 89.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yikes…those fires in southern OR and northern CA are taking off. 

G18_sector_pnw_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20220830-1844.gif

Kind of amazing the fire in the Bull of the Woods Wilderness last summer was 2X bigger than the Rum Creek Fire is right now and no one was paying any attention to it given how many other large fires were going on. We had smoke off an on from that for weeks. It was basically burning unburned forest on the NE side of the Beachie Creek burn scar. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The 18Z GFS has an entirely different take on the pattern evolution next week compared to the 12Z run.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1661882400-1662379200-1662854400-10.gif

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Kind of amazing the fire in the Bull of the Woods Wilderness last summer was 2X bigger than the Rum Creek Fire is right now and no one was paying any attention to it given how many other large fires were going on. We had smoke off an on from that for weeks. It was basically burning unburned forest on the NE side of the Beachie Creek burn scar. 

Yeah so far this seasons been pretty quiet…hopefully it stays that way but I’m starting to get a bit worried. I’m supposed to be camping not too far from that fire west of Waldo lake in a week from now might not go if the situation deteriorates. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

Yeah so far this seasons been pretty quiet…hopefully it stays that way but I’m starting to get a bit worried. I’m supposed to be camping not too far from that fire west of Waldo lake in a week from now might not go if the situation deteriorates. 

I really think we would have escaped the summer of 2020 without any significant smoke if that clipper had not roared through on Labor Day and kicked off 60-80 mph east winds.    The 500mb pattern after that was very quiet and calm... which also left us buried in smoke at that point once all the fires started.

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Just now, ChrisAmunRA said:

Screenshot_20220830-155740-657.png

Only 88 on the 4 p.m. observation.   I don't trust this tweet!    I still think it could end up at 89 for a high.

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PDX is at 98, can they hit 100 to tie for the record??

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I really think we would have escaped the summer of 2020 without any significant smoke if that clipper had not roared through on Labor Day and kicked off 60-80 mph east winds.    The 500mb pattern after that was very quiet and calm... which also left us buried in smoke at that point once all the fires started.

It would’ve been just fine without that clipper. I doubt we see anything like that fire/smoke situation this year. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Only 88 on the 4 p.m. observation.   I don't trust this tweet!    I still think it could end up at 89 for a high.

Not sure I trust it either. Usually the NWS understands about the rounding issues though so hopefully it holds.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Not sure I trust it either. Usually the NWS understands about the rounding issues though so hopefully it holds.

I sense a retraction tweet coming if they didn't account for rounding!   Could be newbie there.   😀

Or maybe SEA can actually get to 90 on the hour at 5 p.m. and leave no doubt.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

89.6. OMG we did it. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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