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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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1 minute ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

I really think this could be a slow winter and fall few storms some could be strong but overall a bit quieter, definitely leaning towards slightly warmer than normal for most any potential of real chilly conditions would probably be late Jan or more into February. I'm very certain we are at least one snowfall this winter for Willamette and Puget Sound Regions that marks up to an inch any other snowfalls or greater accumulations I'm confident on. Just not seeing an all out impressive fall or winter as of now. 

If I had to guess a timeframe maybe late November or mid January? No logic behind that guess but that's what I'm thinking

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And yet Bozeman has been smashing all kinds of cold and snow records as well since you moved there.    I feel like you have been buried in snow since you got there except for a few weeks each year.  

In some climates its not so rare to set new cold records. Seems the window of matching those are shortening in the lowland elevations, but significant cold can still occur in the mountains. (no idea what the deal is with Gov Camp lacking extreme lows, but I've mentioned before KLMT has seen a few of their top 10 lows in the last several years)

Take the number of >60 lows these last handful of summers in Portland an example, while summer lows are largely unaffected at my old place. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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45 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’m worried we won’t have a winter based on how screwed up our summer has been since the eruption. 

Who knows....it may actually work in our favor.  Just too many unknowns right now. In general a second or third year Nina with +QBO would be golden for us.  As we've seen in recent years autumn has a tendency to crash pretty hard after these hot summers.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I just noticed that you had 98.5" of snow in 2011/2012 from your signature! I'm guessing March 2012 was probably very snowy at that elevation, and same with January but that's a lot!

Yes, we also had the only significant November snow in the entire period I have lived here, and a couple inches in April to top things off. March had about 40" of snow which is our 2nd snowiest month in that period (After February 2019), and January had 32.5". We had 21" in one day on 1/17/12 and a storm total of 32" with that event, also 20.5" with the late March snow event, and 16" 12/29-3/1, and a 10" event around 3/10. November through mid-April was very active, though December was pretty dull though, we had no snow that month. December 2012 was pretty decent too, so for the calendar year of 2012 we had a little over 100" of snow, and about 103" of precip. Though for my records I go October 1-September 30th. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Who knows....it may actually work in our favor.  Just too many unknowns right now. In general a second or third year Nina with +QBO would be golden for us.  As we've seen in recent years autumn has a tendency to crash pretty hard after these hot summers.

Yeah, I am more of the mind that the hot summer has really had nothing to do with the volcanic eruption. It's just a convenient scapegoat. Back in May it was being blamed for our cool/wet spring. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

But of course.

Summer used to be so enjoyable even in my lifetime when I was a kid. Now almost every year we’ve gotta deal with nasty smoky skies. Depending on how bad that fire west of Waldo lake gets I might not even go to Oregon next week…just really sucks I don’t want to camp in thick nasty smoke for a week. Was really looking forward to beautiful blue skies and clean air…We will see how the next few days go but it’s not looking great. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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Just now, MWG said:

I'm just tired of this weather. I didn't even know it was going to be up to 100F today and I guess it will be on Thursday again. We have smoke too I just want Fall to be here already. 😭

Rant over......We went fishing at Upper Rogue River - River Bridge in Prospect. Love it there water so clear! and not a lot of people so it was perfect.

IMG_3735.jpg

Please dear Heavenly Father protect this gorgeous place you have created for us. Amen. 🙏 

Upper Rogue is magic. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, I am more of the mind that the hot summer has really had nothing to do with the volcanic eruption. It's just a convenient scapegoat. Back in May it was being blamed for our cool/wet spring. 

Phil was trolling with that being the cause... and indirectly it might have been by changing the circulation and causing a quick resurgence of what was a fading Nina.    And for awhile the Nina seemed to be in charge resulting in a spring locally that was similar to 1999 and 2011 in terms of being very cold and wet.    But something has changed since.   And our very Nina-like spring became a very Nino-like summer.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This is how fall/winter 2022/23 will go…

September will be pleasant to amazing (to my standards) until the last week of the month where the curtain will suddenly drop nearly instantly to 50’s and rain/drizzle/fog/goo. 
Mid October will be okayish but boring. 
late October will feature a chilly wave and the annual debate will commence about how that will either kill or help our chances of epicness later on. November will be old school. Flooding, windstorms and a massive arctic blast around turkey day. December will be split flow hell. Christmas will be sunny and near 50. January 1950 will be delayed but not denied and will begin on MLK Day. Then early spring will happen starting the second week of February. March and April will suck hard (again my standards) May will be fantastic. The End. 

1/13/2023 is going to be a Friday. 1/13/2017, 1/13/1998 and 1/13/1950 were also Fridays!

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This is how fall/winter 2022/23 will go…

September will be pleasant to amazing (to my standards) until the last week of the month where the curtain will suddenly drop nearly instantly to 50’s and rain/drizzle/fog/goo. 
Mid October will be okayish but boring. 
late October will feature a chilly wave and the annual debate will commence about how that will either kill or help our chances of epicness later on. November will be old school. Flooding, windstorms and a massive arctic blast around turkey day. December will be split flow hell. Christmas will be sunny and near 50. January 1950 will be delayed but not denied and will begin on MLK Day. Then early spring will happen starting the second week of February. March and April will suck hard (again my standards) May will be fantastic. The End. 

November!!! I love Windstorms which we are very overdue for a big widespread Windstorm

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Know thyself and you shall know the Gods!!!!

All things are possible, who you are is limited by who you think you are!!!!

☥𓂀

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5 minutes ago, MWG said:

I'm just tired of this weather. I didn't even know it was going to be up to 100F today and I guess it will be on Thursday again. We have smoke too I just want Fall to be here already. 😭

Rant over......We went fishing at Upper Rogue River - River Bridge in Prospect. Love it there water so clear! and not a lot of people so it was perfect.

IMG_3735.jpg

I noticed Klamath was a bit off of their daily record, with 94 but still they are ending August this year warmer than 2021. 

Could match with Aug 2017 on the mean there. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Summer used to be so enjoyable even in my lifetime when I was a kid. Now almost every year we’ve gotta deal with nasty smoky skies. Depending on how bad that fire west of Waldo lake gets I might not even go to Oregon next week…just really sucks I don’t want to camp in thick nasty smoke for a week. Was really looking forward to beautiful blue skies and clean air…We will see how the next few days go but it’s not looking great. 

I can't imagine fire just wasn't an issue 20 years ago... considering its been an issue forever.  Someone mentioned that even 2001 had a pretty bad fire season.  

I remember reading the Minnesota weather records from Fort Snelling in the early to mid 1800s and it seems like every year they were talking about choking smoke obscuring the sky from the natural prairie fires.  

I think our memories might be pretty selective.

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I can't imagine fire just wasn't an issue 20 years ago... considering its been an issue forever.  Someone mentioned that even 2001 had a pretty bad fire season.  

I remember reading the Minnesota weather records from Fort Snelling in the early to mid 1800s and it seems like every year they were talking about choking smoke obscuring the sky from the natural prairie fires.  

I think our memories might be pretty selective.

 

Well yeah obviously there’s always been fires here in this climate. It’s just a much worse problem now with much hotter drier summers. Literally breaking heat/dry records every year plus forest mismanagement has caused all of this. There wasn’t always a nearly guaranteed Smokey end to summer every year like it is now. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Well yeah obviously there’s always been fires here in this climate. It’s just a much worse problem now with much hotter drier summers. Literally breaking heat/dry records every year plus forest mismanagement has caused all of this. There wasn’t always a nearly guaranteed Smokey end to summer every year like it is now. 

I don't there was any issue in 2019.   Might be due for another summer like that next year.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And yet Bozeman has been smashing all kinds of cold and snow records as well since you moved there.    I feel like you have been buried in snow since you got there except for a few weeks each year.  

Besides the 2019 cold wave we haven’t been breaking many cold records. Snowfall has definitely been above average (warming climate can hold more moisture) and we are fortunate out here that even with a decent amount of warming the primary wintertime precip form will remain frozen.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't there was any issue in 2019.   Might be due for another summer like that next year.

Yeah we will get 1 smokeless summer per decade now. I’m so excited for it. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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If you look at acres burned the past decade has put up some pretty crooked numbers... There is just no way around it. 2019 wasn't a bad year. We still have the potential to escape with an OK year as long as things don't totally blow up in the next two weeks.

Fires west of the Cascade Crest have become more common over the past decade or so, that's just a fact. But they were not unprecedented. The Biscuit Fire in 2002 in SW Oregon was absolutely massive. There was a pretty big fire north of Oakridge in the mid-90s, the west end of the Gorge in the late 80s. The massive B&B complex fire absolutely obliterated the Santiam Pass area in 2003. I think the difference is the frequency and severity. The last two years have been completely bonkers, but really since 2015 there have been some absolutely massive wildfires in Oregon. Some of them people don't even remember but they were huge. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chetco_Bar_Fire

https://www.oregonlive.com/wildfires/page/canyon_creek_fire.html

In 2017 the North Umpqua Complex Fire burned over 40,000 acres in the Umpqua NF, and the Horse Creek Fire burned over 42,000 acres in the Willamette National Forest. 

The Whitewater Fire burned 14,000 acres in the Mt. Jefferson Wilderness, an area that would reburn in the Lionshead fire. Some of that area was old growth, and burned twice in 4 years...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I can't imagine fire just wasn't an issue 20 years ago... considering its been an issue forever.  Someone mentioned that even 2001 had a pretty bad fire season.  

I remember reading the Minnesota weather records from Fort Snelling in the early to mid 1800s and it seems like every year they were talking about choking smoke obscuring the sky from the natural prairie fires.  

I think our memories might be pretty selective.

 

I’m sure there have always been bad fire seasons, but I have lived here all of my 60 years, and I can say with certainty that the choking, sun obscuring smoke days in the Puget Sound region are new in the last ten years or so. 

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20 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

November!!! I love Windstorms which we are very overdue for a big widespread Windstorm

Windstorms are my second favorite fall/winter event! Love them!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If you look at acres burned the past decade has put up some pretty crooked numbers... There is just no way around it. 2019 wasn't a bad year. We still have the potential to escape with an OK year as long as things don't totally blow up in the next two weeks.

Fires west of the Cascade Crest have become more common over the past decade or so, that's just a fact. But they were not unprecedented. The Biscuit Fire in 2002 in SW Oregon was absolutely massive. There was a pretty big fire north of Oakridge in the mid-90s, the west end of the Gorge in the late 80s. The massive B&B complex fire absolutely obliterated the Santiam Pass area in 2003. I think the difference is the frequency and severity. The last two years have been completely bonkers, but really since 2015 there have been some absolutely massive wildfires in Oregon. Some of them people don't even remember but they were huge. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chetco_Bar_Fire

https://www.oregonlive.com/wildfires/page/canyon_creek_fire.html

In 2017 the North Umpqua Complex Fire burned over 40,000 acres in the Umpqua NF, and the Horse Creek Fire burned over 42,000 acres in the Willamette National Forest. 

The Whitewater Fire burned 14,000 acres in the Mt. Jefferson Wilderness, an area that would reburn in the Lionshead fire. Some of that area was old growth, and burned twice in 4 years...

Yeah there’s no denying there’s a much higher frequency of large fires…there’s always been wildfires in the western US…but the problem is much worse now with these dust bowl summers we’ve been getting. Forest mismanagement is a contributing factor though. It just sucks to have to go through these hotter smoky summers every year now it genuinely upsets me. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If you look at acres burned the past decade has put up some pretty crooked numbers... There is just no way around it. 2019 wasn't a bad year. We still have the potential to escape with an OK year as long as things don't totally blow up in the next two weeks.

Fires west of the Cascade Crest have become more common over the past decade or so, that's just a fact. But they were not unprecedented. The Biscuit Fire in 2002 in SW Oregon was absolutely massive. There was a pretty big fire north of Oakridge in the mid-90s, the west end of the Gorge in the late 80s. The massive B&B complex fire absolutely obliterated the Santiam Pass area in 2003. I think the difference is the frequency and severity. The last two years have been completely bonkers, but really since 2015 there have been some absolutely massive wildfires in Oregon. Some of them people don't even remember but they were huge. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chetco_Bar_Fire

https://www.oregonlive.com/wildfires/page/canyon_creek_fire.html

In 2017 the North Umpqua Complex Fire burned over 40,000 acres in the Umpqua NF, and the Horse Creek Fire burned over 42,000 acres in the Willamette National Forest. 

The Whitewater Fire burned 14,000 acres in the Mt. Jefferson Wilderness, an area that would reburn in the Lionshead fire. Some of that area was old growth, and burned twice in 4 years...

In 2020, how many acres burned prior to September? Before the Labor Day sh$t show, I surprisingly went most of that summer with breathable air in K-Falls. A few smoky days but the convection got rid of it quickly. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

In 2020, how many acres burned prior to September? Before the Labor Day sh$t show, I surprisingly went most of that summer with breathable air in K-Falls. A few smoky days but the convection got rid of it quickly. 

Most of the major fires started in mid-August with the dry thunderstorms around the 16th. Some of those were already large fires before the Labor Day wind storm, but the ones that weren't already contained blew up on the 8th, then all the other major fires started around the 8th of September. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Both 2020 and 2021 had pretty dry springs. At least in Oregon. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Per stations where family or friends reside. Including where I reside 

85° Belltown

86° Boeing Field

88° Downtown Bellevue (Helipad)

88° Renton

90° SeaTac

83° Federal Way

89° Auburn 

87° Downtown Tacoma 

91° Western Lakewood (Fort Steilacoom Park)

92° Spanaway 

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Know thyself and you shall know the Gods!!!!

All things are possible, who you are is limited by who you think you are!!!!

☥𓂀

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A bit of elevated smoke to the west. 

6986F2E8-2FCE-4ED2-9FD4-950B4C8C49D8.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Today was the latest 100 degree day at PDX since 1988

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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7 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Bomb dropped.  BAD NEWS. 

Screen Shot 2022-08-30 at 8.14.44 PM.png

Burger bigots!!!

If anyone is interested, I’m joining a planned protest march tomorrow. I’ll bring sunscreen and cooling towels.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I think most of these should stand in the next two days, I'll add the final numbers after tomorrow. Some summer 2022 stats in Portland:
- 3rd hottest summer on record (1st is 2015, 2nd is 2021)

- August 2022 will end up as the hottest August and month on record

- July 2022 ended up as the 4th hottest July on record and the 5th hottest month on record

- The late July 2022 heatwave was the hottest week on record and the longest stretch of 95+ degree days in a row

- Hottest 850mb temp in July and August recorded during the July 2022 heatwave

- Hottest summer on record for average nighttime lows

- Hottest July/August combination on record

- Should end up as at least the 3rd most 90-degree days in summer on record (after 2015 (29) and 2018 (31)

- Tied for most 100 degree days in a summer (5 in 2022, 2021, 1977, 1941)

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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Acres burned per year is definitely rising.  But years like 2000 and 2002 were almost twice as bad as 2019.    So we can still have quiet years.   2013 and 2014 were also very quiet.   

And more acreage burned in 2011 and 2012 then in 2021.    So obviously cool and wet years in the PNW can often be really bad elsewhere.   

What is amazing is how bad it was in the 1920s through the 1940s.    2015 was a terrible fire year with 10 million acres burned... but back in the 1920s and 1930s there was 30-50 million acres burned in some years.   I imagine even the worst years now are so much better than it was 100 years ago.

US_Burn_Acreage_1916-2010.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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According to re-constucted data... the annual land burned in the western US right now is well below the natural average going back 3,000 years.   In other words... it was much worse naturally than it is now being artificially contained.  The exception being during the LIA.   This also says we have a serious fire deficit now which represents a significant imbalance that is not sustainable.   Unfortunately... much more needs to burn to get back in balance.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1112839109

 

pnas.1112839109fig3.jpeg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

Currently 68. Savoring every second of hanging out outside after sunset and soaking in this late summer warmth. 

9F7F90BA-D75D-4C72-8FA0-0CE22D83494B.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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WILDFIRE UPDATE  

Second to the last daily update!  I think I will either go to once a week or whenever there is some huge development.

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/30/22  

Washington - 13 (13 new fires today. There are five large fires in the state. The White River Fire and nearby Irving Peak Fire near Lake Wenatchee are being worked on by crews, who are using natural features and constructed fire lines to contain the fires! The total number of fires remains at 69 today.) Total: 69

Oregon - 1 (1 new fire today.  There are five large fires in the state. The Rum Creek fire near Grants Pass is producing heavy smoke into the Rogue Valley and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Over 1,100 people are fighting this fire which has already burned 11,700 acres of land.  Unfortunately, the fire has progressed enough that is it now firming burning on both sides of the Rogue River. Crews hope to flank and cut off the blaze from further spreading, but admit may be months or until rain comes they get the upper hand on this blaze.The total number of fires increases from 32 to 33.) Total: 33

Idaho - 0 (0 new fires in the state today.  There are three large fires in the state. The Moose fire, the largest fire in the state, was started on July 17.  As of today crews are still fighting it as it has burned an astounding 98,677 acres. Crews are mainly trying to protect private property now as they see no way to actually stop this massive blaze until cooler weather comes with precipitation. As of today, the fire is still only 44% contained with over 700 people fighting the blaze. Big drop the past two days! The total number drops from 64 to 46.) Total: 46

California - 24 (24 new fires in the state of California.  About four fires were started within Napa Valley today and all still have unknown causes.  There are six large fires in the state.  They are all clustered, three are clustered in the northern California, NW of Redding, and three are clustered in central California east of Merced. The Six Rivers Lightning Complex east of Eureka is in "full suppression" mode as crews are making good progress. The once dangerous McKinney Fire on the OR-CA border is 99% contained and mostly just smoldering at this point. The Yeti fire to the west of it is also now officially contained! In central CA, we have the Washburn fire which is now contained as well! So far only one has been goes up by one from 64 to 66. ) Total: 65

British Columbia - 16 (16 new blazes in the past 24hrs.  Some big decreases the past two days. Crews have made good progress containing 11 of the 13 fires near Revelstoke.  Crew have made no progress on the Briggs Creek Fire near Kaslo.  BC Crews have also not stopped the Weasel Creek Fire which is burning right on the International Border and has sadly spread over the "no man's land" zone into Montana.  The total amount of fires drops from 184 to 182.) Total: 182

Who Has had The Most Amount of Fires (Ranked by days in which they've had the most fires, only counting days we've kept track here.)

1. British Columbia - 36 days with the most wildfires

2. Oregon - 2 days with the most wildfires.

SMOKE UPDATE

As said yesterday offshore conditions have blown smoke into Western Washington, but for the most part, it is aloft and should remain aloft. The eastern foothills of the Puget Sound are seeing mostly moderate air quality due to smoke, and from Bothell, south to Puyallup and Tacoma, some smoke is mixing at mid to lower levels. Lynnwood north is clear and Lakewood south is clear. With the shift in winds, smoke has vacated lower levels in most of Eastern Washington including Spokane, Wenatchee, the Twi-Cities and Yakima.

Oregon north of Eugene is clear, though smoke and haze will be visible.  Conditions have worsened in Grants Pass - Medford with air being unhealthy for all groups due to localized, heavy smoke.  Smoke is also wafting north into Roseburg giving the city readings of unhealthy air for sensitive groups.  Smoke will continue to move northward towards Eugene. It is a mixture of Oregon wildfire and California wildfire smoke.  Air quality advisories have been extended for Curry, Jackson, and Josephine counties. 

Conditions will become moderate to unhealthy for the Lower Mainland of BC as we move into Tuesday and Wednesday.  Conditions are moderate today for locations north of the Fraser River. 

Smoke from Northern California is pouring northward into southern Oregon. Eureka and Redding are smoke free. The entire Bay Area is seeing hazy skies and moderate levels of smoke due to localized fires and wildfire smoke moving back inland from the Pacific. This extends from the tip of Napa Valley as far south as San Jose and into Hollister. Moderate air quality is also in the entire LA metro today, both inland and costal.  Hazy conditions should persist. San Diego is in the same boat. This smoke has been sitting just off the coast for days and is now moving back inland.

rum-creek-fire-oregon.thumb.jpg.18b1e472b0e58d3f93c3ac9d350496b3.jpg

The Rum Creek Fire NW of Grants Pass has jumped the Rogue River and has burned over 11,000 acres now. 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Phil was trolling with that being the cause... and indirectly it might have been by changing the circulation and causing a quick resurgence of what was a fading Nina.    And for awhile the Nina seemed to be in charge resulting in a spring locally that was similar to 1999 and 2011 in terms of being very cold and wet.    But something has changed since.   And our very Nina-like spring became a very Nino-like summer.

There have been some pretty cool/wet +ENSO summers: 1966, 1969, 1976, 1983, 1993, hell even 2019 by recent standard was relatively cool.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

There have been some pretty cool/wet +ENSO summers: 1966, 1969, 1976, 1983, 1993, hell even 2019 by recent standard was relatively cool.

Definitely true.   I just have 2015 in mind when I think of a true Nino summer but that is probably not totally representative either.    1983 and 1993 were volcanic summers with traditional SO2 influence and they behaved more like a Nina.   But 2019 is a good recent example that shows Nino summers are not always hot and dry.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Kayla said:

Besides the 2019 cold wave we haven’t been breaking many cold records. Snowfall has definitely been above average (warming climate can hold more moisture) and we are fortunate out here that even with a decent amount of warming the primary wintertime precip form will remain frozen.

I think you're kind of underplaying some rather impressive cold your area has seen in recent years. February has been insane.

Feb18TDeptWRCC-NW.png

Feb19TDeptWRCC-NW.png

Mar19TDeptWRCC-NW.png

Feb21TDeptWRCC-NW.png

Apr22TDeptWRCC-NW.png

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 minute ago, GobBluth said:

GFS is not going to let go of the ridge next week.

Big changes from the 12Z run... looks more like the 18Z run.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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