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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like SEA needs to get to 83 today to end up with an average temp of 70 for August... assuming the temp does not drop below 62 this morning.    

An average temp of 70+ for a month has only happened 4 times in SEA history (July 2015, July 2018, August 1967, August 2017).     So this will be the 5th warmest month ever recorded there.   

This will be the warmest August ever at Shawnigan Lake.  Likely the second warmest month ever, though we have an outside shot at equaling July 1958, but I think we will fall just short. 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A lot of these takes are seriously lacking nuance, and as always context. 

The fact we were able to suppress these fires for 80 years, more or less, is relevant. It is also relevant where fires typically burn, and where many of these fires in say the the 1800s were burning. I have read of massive fires in that time period in places like Maine, Michigan, and other parts of the Midwest. We just don't see that anymore for various reasons. So it would be interesting to compare acres burned in Oregon on average to the past decade. And I am sure more acreage burned back then because there was no fire suppression. And we also know of massive fires back then, no one is saying they were unheard of. 

But generally fires today burn more intensely. Fire has always been common on the landscape, but stand killing burns were rare. In the Western Cascades of Oregon on average about once every 200 years. Now pretty much every fire is stand killing it seems. There are a lot of factors that go into this, of course, but it is still relevant because it is a significant change, and not for the better. 

Life expectancy dropped again last year, as Americans we are dying younger. 76.1 years on average now. We could be concerned and ask what steps we can take to turn this around, or we could just say it is inevitable because everyone dies and a long time ago people died much younger. 

The study I posted last night was just focused on the western US and did not include the Midwest or East.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

0z EPS showed a fairly strong signal for ridging over the PNW next weekend as well now.  The snow wizard jinx is alive and well. 

We should probably put him on mod preview. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

0z EPS showed a fairly strong signal for ridging over the PNW next weekend as well now.  The snow wizard jinx is alive and well. 

Maybe not... the 12Z GFS is back to the troughy solution for next week similar to the 12Z run yesterday.   

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2552000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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17 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Just missed out on having a 100+ degree high each month. The late June heatwave on the 26th got to 99. 

And I think on the 25th during the July heatwave we also hit 99.

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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11 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Please take your anti-climatechangeismakingeverythingworse narrative elsewhere. 

Seriously, though, if you read that article it does mention that climate change is a factor and is acting to increase the area burned annually. It’s just not the only factor.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

Yep those measures taken in the late 30's onward have totally screwed us. Now every single fire that starts in a Sierra canyon immediately explodes into raging inferno that nobody can stop. I wonder if those fires in the early 1900's burned cooler (ground fires) and produced less smoke even though the acreage was way more?

Frequent fires tend to be lower intensity fires. Just not as much stuff to burn. That said, a ground fire that smolders a lot can still be very smoky. Hot fires tend to burn cleaner. Whether that would increase or decrease overall smoke given those contrary trends (less stuff burning, but a higher proportion of it smoldering) is beyond me.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Indigenous peoples of BC managed their lands through fire for centuries.  Then we started to try to put everything out immediately and here we are.  I linked an article below for anyone interested. 

https://thenarwhal.ca/indigenous-cultural-burning/

BC has moved to often allowing remote fires to burn naturally within set boundaries.  Referred to as modified response 

 

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3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Indigenous peoples of BC managed their lands through fire for centuries.  Then we started to try to put everything out immediately and here we are.  I linked an article below for anyone interested. 

https://thenarwhal.ca/indigenous-cultural-burning/

BC has moved to often allowing remote fires to burn naturally within set boundaries.  Referred to as modified response 

 

Thought at an intellectual level I like the idea of letting fire restore the natural order, it can be difficult down here because of how many people live in the urban-wildland interface. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Smoke not much of an issue in Salem this morning. 

F1165A5C-89B9-49FC-8253-609354280BA3.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

This 12z run will probably be one of the cooler ensemble members. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thought at an intellectual level I like the idea of letting fire restore the natural order, it can be difficult down here because of how many people live in the urban-wildland interface. 

Definitely going to be a challenge in some areas as you said.  Obviously BC has vast areas of land that can burn without threat to communities.  

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12z GFS = Too good to be true. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah only got down to 63…19th +60 low a new record for a single year. 

Only three +60 lows here this summer. Dropped to 57F this morning.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z GFS = Too good to be true. 

12Z GEFS looks much less troughy than its 00Z for later next week... it went in the opposite direction as the operational run.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z GEFS at day 10 on top and the 00Z run at the same time on the bottom... fairly significant shift away from troughing.  

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-2811200 (1).png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-2811200.png

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SEA is at 75 at 11 a.m. after a low of 63.

Just need to reach 82 today to lock in 70.0 degree monthly average with no rounding necessary.

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12Z GEM ensemble also trended less troughy at day 10 compared to its 00Z run... and in contrast to its operational run.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Frequent fires tend to be lower intensity fires. Just not as much stuff to burn. That said, a ground fire that smolders a lot can still be very smoky. Hot fires tend to burn cleaner. Whether that would increase or decrease overall smoke given those contrary trends (less stuff burning, but a higher proportion of it smoldering) is beyond me.

Yeah I was thinking like the low wispy smoke you see with low intensity fires, versus the 50'k plumes that blot out the sun and rain ash.

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3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Yeah I was thinking like the low wispy smoke you see with low intensity fires, versus the 50'k plumes that blot out the sun and rain ash.

This picture shows it well. Lots of little fires with light smoke north of the major fire.

HxxZAzssFRAQZyxfoxDRvN-1200-80.jpg

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Smoke not much of an issue in Salem this morning. 

F1165A5C-89B9-49FC-8253-609354280BA3.jpeg

Same here…it’s all aloft and very thin. Hopefully no big fires pop off in the next few days. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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Wow... 12Z ECMWF goes crazy with amplification.    At face value its a sunny and cool pattern.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2811200.png

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... 12Z ECMWF goes crazy with amplification.    At face value its a sunny and cool pattern.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2811200.png

A bit early to look at the DJF 500mb height mean, don't you think? ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Seriously, though, if you read that article it does mention that climate change is a factor and is acting to increase the area burned annually. It’s just not the only factor.

Yeah, I know. It's just so tired and intellectually lazy to label every "bad" thing that happens as a result of climate change, which is happening in the media and even some scientific circles more and more.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Facebook has been blowing up here in Whatcom County with reports of thunder out over the bay and in the Acme area a couple of hours ago.  Mainly cloudy here with a temp of 78 and a DP of 63

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5 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

In addition to the craziness of Feb-Mar 2019, Dec-Jan 2016-17 was the coldest such stretch in Bozeman since 1978-79, definitely top tier. April 2022 was coldest April since 1975.

We can technically break it down by record-breaking, top tier, coldest in many years, or just really large anomalies, but I'd say Bozeman has done pretty well for some cold months in the past 5-6 years.

All of these months were well below the long term average (which goes back to the late 1800s): Dec 2016, Jan 2017, Dec 2017, Feb 2018, Feb 2019, Mar 2019, Oct 2019, Feb 2021, Apr 2022.

Again, you're speaking of anomalies not top tier cold/warmth which is what the discussion was all about. All of those years that you just mentioned (except for 2019 of course) did not even reach top ten coldest.

In those same years (since it seems you have picked the time since I moved here) we have seen: 

  • March 2017, 5th warmest on record
  • May 2017, 3rd warmest 
  • May 2021, 2nd warmest
  • June 2021, 2nd warmest
  • July 2021, 2nd warmest
  • July 2017, 3rd warmest
  • August 2022, warmest on record

Latest 95+ day on record will very likely be set on Saturday.

Relatively speaking for Bozeman, I'll agree with you that climate warming has had less of an effect compared to most other areas in the country but that's not to say that its been immune to it either.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS and 12Z control run are much more ridgy than the operational run at day 10.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-2811200 (1).png

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-2811200.png

Control run looked very Sept 2020. Not what you guys want to see before the rains hit.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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19 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Again, you're speaking of anomalies not top tier cold/warmth which is what the discussion was all about. All of those years that you just mentioned (except for 2019 of course) did not even reach top ten coldest.

In those same years (since it seems you have picked the time since I moved here) we have seen: 

  • March 2017, 5th warmest on record
  • May 2017, 3rd warmest 
  • May 2021, 2nd warmest
  • June 2021, 2nd warmest
  • July 2021, 2nd warmest
  • July 2017, 3rd warmest
  • August 2022, warmest on record

Latest 95+ day on record will very likely be set on Saturday.

Relatively speaking for Bozeman, I'll agree with you that climate warming has had less of an effect compared to most other areas in the country but that's not to say that its been immune to it either.

Feb 2021 and Apr 2022 were just outside the top 10 coldest, for a period of record going back 130 years I'd say that's top tier.

Never said the cold has outdone the warmth in your area, but the original comment I responded to made it sound like there hadn't been much of note besides Feb/Mar 2019, when compared to most places there certainly has been.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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82 at SEA... now at 70.0 exactly for the month.

Unless the temp drops below 63 by 1 a.m.... its locked up. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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