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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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With heat likely Monday-Wednesday, it’s looking probable that PDX records it’s warmest August (and month period) on record. Should end up right around 75 for an average which beats the previous record warm August (2017) by a degree and a half and the previous all-time record warm month (July 1985) by about a degree.

The warm nights really boosted things (average low of ~63 would be the warmest average min on record, beating any other month by a couple degrees) but days have been consistently warm too. Should end up the 4th or 5th warmest average monthly max on record ending up right around 87. August 1967 will still hold onto the title of warmest average max on record with 88.1, but I’m sure that one will fall as well at some point in the next several years. Wouldn’t surprise me at all to see a month with the average max near or just above 90F at some point in the next 10-20 years.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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6z was definitely great. Giving SEA another shot at 90F mid next week, but even for the overly warm biased model, it only showed low-90s... which is most likely gonna be mid-80s for the area. Then after that, even in the LR, there's really nothing to show for. 

I believe it's likely that we're done with the 90s. 🤩

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4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

If august ended today, this would be the warmest month in history for Shawnigan Lake. Looks like we will lose a bit of ground these next few days and end up cooler than July 1958

If the month ended yesterday it would be our 2nd warmest ever at 68.9. Should still be the warmest august on record for me even with the weekend cooldown. 

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

6z was definitely great. Giving SEA another shot at 90F mid next week, but even for the overly warm biased model, it only showed low-90s... which is most likely gonna be mid-80s for the area. Then after that, even in the LR, there's really nothing to show for. 

I believe it's likely that we're done with the 90s. 🤩

I think yesterday was the last real shot to tie the record... fell just short.  

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Some nice overnight temps being shown as well on the 12z... upper-40s creeping over to this side of the Cascades. Everett would get down to around 50F Monday morning... which would be the coolest we've seen in a while. Fall is knocking. 

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think yesterday was the last real shot to tie the record... fell just short.  

A part of me wanted to see the record broken... but it just happened in 2015... something tells me we're likely gonna see this record get smash within the next few years. Can't really deny the change we are experiencing here. 

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Clouds moved in earlier... but now seeing lots of blue sky.     Might get some sun before the clouds push back in later this afternoon.

In other news... the 12Z GFS is vastly improved for the holiday weekend.     But don't think the models have settled on a solution yet.

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We are heading over to Couer D'Alene this afternoon.    Taking the trip we had originally planned earlier in the summer.    Might go to Silverwood tomorrow or Sunday depending on the weather which is looking nicer with each run now.     

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28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You seem to be one... considering your hatred of moisture in the air.    😀

He said condensed water vapor. I’m afraid of the uncondensed form. ;) 

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Looking like next weekend is go time for the gulf.  Gulf of Mexico water temps are about 85-88 this time of year. 

Only about 5 degrees warmer than Lake Sammamish has been most of this month.    Luckily its not big enough to produce tropical storms!  

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57 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s a good article. People make fun about highway engineers and DOT’s when projects like this “take forever,” but there is often a tradeoff to be made between lane closures and length of time it takes to complete a project (i.e. you can complete a project quickly if you don’t care about traffic impacts and are willing to close as many lanes as needed to maximize the rate of progress).

Agreed. The video embedded in the article does a good job of describing the complexity and the large number of projects completed. 

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58 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Nothing personal Dude, but I am so glad I don't live near that nightmare.  Actually used to commute to Puyallup for a few years from East Bremerton.  Not for the faint of heart..  I think it took years off my life!

In other news, no way they are done.  They will be tearing it up again soon.

I spent years commuting from Renton, Kent and Maple Valley to the U District, downtown Seattle and Redmond. Even from Tacoma and Federal Way to Seattle early in my career. I’ve been working from home for going on ten years now which makes living in Tacoma workable. 

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Looking like next weekend is go time for the gulf.  Gulf of Mexico water temps are about 85-88 this time of year. 

I’m hoping for a hurricane free Atlantic. Quiet seasons correlate to much colder winters out here in recent decades, and the last 3 have had a complete absence of real cold, which has caused insect populations to explode. 

Plus the last several years have been brutal for the SE US. Something like 1/3rd of the ancient live oak trees on Saint Simons and Sea Island have been lost to hurricanes over the last decade. It’s pretty depressing, they need a break. 

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

GFS shows 100 degrees at PDX with offshore flow the Sunday of Labor Day weekend. Can’t really ask for better timing if you’re wanting some large wildfires to spread quickly throughout the region.

Actually back to back 100s Sunday and Monday. Really the last thing we need right now.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Only about 5 degrees warmer than Lake Sammamish has been most of this month.    Luckily its not big enough to produce tropical storms!  

Even if it were possible those subsurface waters are probably way too cold. Would upwell within 5 minutes in hurricane conditions and choke off development.

You’re safe!

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Even if it were possible those subsurface waters are probably way too cold. Would upwell within 5 minutes in hurricane conditions and choke off development.

You’re safe!

Whew!   

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Non-niño summers with quiet hurricane seasons include 1962, 1970, 1977, 1983, 1993, 2013, and 2014.

All of those were frigid winters here except 1983/84 which was closer to average, but even that one had historic cold on multiple occasions.

Of course any burst of hurricane activity in Sep/Oct could undo the quiet start. So not counting my chickens before they hatch, but so far so good. 🤞 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Non-niño summers with quiet hurricane seasons include 1962, 1970, 1977, 1983, 1993, 2013, and 2014.

All of those were frigid winters here except 1983/84, but even that one had historic cold at times.

Of course any burst of hurricane activity in Sep/Oct could undo the quiet start. So not counting my chickens before they hatch, but so far so good. 🤞 

Does the hurricane season actually have an impact on what happens during the winter or is it just coincidental?

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13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’ve been flip flopping on what I’m thinking for September but starting to get the feeling it could be another very warm month.

I think given the high end warmth these last 6 weeks, more warmth is always a safe bet. However, given how high end things have already been I also think a relative relaxation is most likely with a couple of modest shake-ups at times. Probably gonna be more like +2 or +1.5 than +3.5 or +4.

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In terms of September... it seems like when summer starts late then it ends up being a summery month and when summer starts early then September is more fall-like.    Of course there are exceptions.  

I am leaning towards a summery September because of the late start to summer.    Just a hunch.  

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Non-niño summers with quiet hurricane seasons include 1962, 1970, 1977, 1983, 1993, 2013, and 2014.

All of those were frigid winters here except 1983/84 which was closer to average, but even that one had historic cold on multiple occasions.

Of course any burst of hurricane activity in Sep/Oct could undo the quiet start. So not counting my chickens before they hatch, but so far so good. 🤞 

Weren't 1977-78 and 2014-15 both Nino seasons? May not have been that way through the entire hurricane season but they were both developing weak Ninos and 1977 was a back to back deal.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Does the hurricane season actually have an impact on what happens during the winter or is it just coincidental?

The larger scale factors/atmospheric regimes responsible for quiet seasons may also favor colder patterns here during the winter months.

IE: El Niño often puts a lid on Atlantic hurricane activity and tends to produce colder/snowier winters here. In the case of 2022 the reasons it’s less ENSO more subtropics/monsoonal and related ET responses but the correlation may still hold. We’ll see.

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

GFS is struggling.

4000 mile diameter ultra-ridge with a major hurricane in what is obviously a dead season. Poor thing.

500h_anom.na.png

Yeah... there will probably be many changes from run to run.    Always seems to happen once we get into this time of year with all the tropical activity.

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12Z GEFS has definitely been trending warmer for next weekend over the last 3 or 4 runs.     It showed colder than normal 850mb temps on the 12Z run yesterday.  

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-2336000.png

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6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Weren't 1977-78 and 2014-15 both Nino seasons? May not have been that way through the entire hurricane season but they were both developing weak Ninos and 1977 was a back to back deal.

2014/15 was neutral, but yeah I guess 1977/78 was barely a niño by DJF (not during hurricane season, though).

La Niña/-ENSO examples were 1970, 1983, and 2013. Two of those were frigid, and 1983 was closer to average but had two massive cold blasts with subzero temps.

All hypothetical still, of course.

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