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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

06z GFS was awesome for thunderstorm activity next week

The NWS Portland AFD even mentioned thunderstorm chances this far out.

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

The NWS Portland AFD even mentioned thunderstorm chances this far out.

ULL hiding just offshore and slowly moving NNW during JAS? With a roided monsoon pumping moisture pretty much everywhere to boot?

Yeah, someone's gonna get something next week.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer

Currently 55 and raining. 
.24” so far on the day, .25” for the month! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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7 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Very active day yesterday as well as into the night here in Prescott.  Had the window open listening to rain falling as the skies lit up and thundered.  A few right near the house!  Had my video rolling as I chased this storm in Flagstaff (grabbed the best lightning strike from the video).  Early hike this morning canceled due to the storms here. Video attached of a close hit! 

BBD77A26-FC90-46BF-94FD-B85D59635699.jpeg

52E899B3-22CB-4ADE-A6D3-C7034410133F.jpeg

82E56655-9CEE-4420-A41B-582E0AFF02F9.jpeg

IMG_9558.MOV

Gorgeous!!!

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

ULL hiding just offshore and slowly moving NNW during JAS? With a roided monsoon pumping moisture pretty much everywhere to boot?

Yeah, someone's gonna get something next week.

A repeat of this please

20220804_080927.gif

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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I am seeing .48" storm total from this event, which I am skeptical of based on other observations around me, I'll need to check my rain gauge.  Looks like we did have a couple lines of heavy rain move through around 4:45 and again at 5:20 this morning.

 

Currently 57

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😱😱😱 the completely accurate Farmers' Almanac!

image.png.155dd79056dc59bf2a8d50e56cc9dc33.png

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

😱😱😱 the completely accurate Farmers' Almanac!

image.png.155dd79056dc59bf2a8d50e56cc9dc33.png

Lol. I fully expect a nuclear blowtorch out here until proven otherwise. Especially during the autumn months. 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Lol. I fully expect a nuclear blowtorch out here until proven otherwise. Especially during the autumn months. 

Maybe you'll get very lucky and a February 2010 repeat somehow will suddenly happen there next winter??

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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  • Longtimer
24 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

A repeat of this please

20220804_080927.gif

I'll never forget that one!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Partly sunny and pleasant here this morning. A few clouds up along the ridgeline. 

I see Phoenix got 0.58" of rain this morning with some areas in the 1-2" range. What a blessing for them. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Maybe you'll get very lucky and a February 2010 repeat somehow will suddenly happen there next winter??

Nah this is almost certainly a western US centric winter. All signs point that way (powerful modoki niña in conjunction with descending +QBO and inclining solar cycle *screams* -PNA).

Could be some -NAO thrown in the mix, but without a subtropical jet, snowfall will be difficult to come by here. Result is usually a miller-B storm track that puts us in the dryslot.

We’ll probably get our turn during the next El Niño.

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  • Longtimer

Recent MJJ ONI came in a -0.9C. Last weeks ENSO 3.4 region reading was -0.7C. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
Posted (edited)

July PDO came in at an astonishing -2.48. The lowest such reading in July since 1955. 

The only July's with lower PDO have been 1955, 1950, 1933, 1894, 1883. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Florida is weird. Yesterday’s low of 72°F occurred at 2pm in association with thunderstorms, then warmed right back up to 90°F 1hr later, and barely dropped out of the 80s last night.

Also it looks like DC was warmer than here last night. :lol: I know my climate sucks balls but sometimes I forget how awful it actually is relative to the rest of the US at 39N latitude. Probably won’t drop below 80 tonight back home.

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

July PDO came in at an astonishing -2.48. The lowest such reading in July since 1955. 

The only July's with lower PDO have been 1955, 1950, 1933, 1894, 1883. 

Also fits the bill for a rapidly descending +QBO and west-based La Niña.

Gonna be some steroidal -PNA periods this winter. 

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  • Longtimer
Just now, Phil said:

Also fits the bill for a rapidly descending +QBO and west-based La Niña.

Gonna be some steroidal -PNA periods this winter. 

Can't freaking wait. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Florida is weird. Yesterday’s low of 72°F occurred at 2pm in association with thunderstorms, then warmed right back up to 90°F 1hr later, and barely dropped out of the 80s last night.

Also it looks like DC was warmer than here in FL last night. :lol: I know my climate sucks balls but sometimes I forget how awful it actually is relative to the rest of the US at 39N latitude. Probably won’t drop below 80 tonight back home.

The founders greatest mistake

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As bad as much of the US (including PNW) has had it this summer, Texas has had it worse.

This is legitimately shocking.

 

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Got down to 58 here this morning. Didn’t get anything measurable here but that’s not too surprising with NW flow. Our odds for something meaningful are better next week anyways. 

 

Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-12

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Also fits the bill for a rapidly descending +QBO and west-based La Niña.

Gonna be some steroidal -PNA periods this winter. 

July this year was dead ringer for July 1955.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Feels like fall this morning. 

Perfect day... 82 here in MN with dewpoints in the 50s and full sun while our yard got watered this morning at home. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Got down to 58 here this morning. Didn’t get anything measurable here but that’s not too surprising with NW flow. Our odds for something meaningful are better next week anyways. 

NW flow is usually good to me, and last night fit that pattern. Vancouver juts out into the Strait of Georgia, so it means the greater friction of air against land causing things to pile up and generate lift when the flow comes ashore. It’s particularly good if there’s modified arctic air involved, as it can mean a strait effect juicing up the moisture much like the famous lake effect of the Great Lakes does. It was delightful the night that happened late last December; Vancouver got about twice the snow as points further east.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

NW flow is usually good to me, and last night fit that pattern. Vancouver juts out into the Strait of Georgia, so it means the greater friction of air against land causing things to pile up and generate lift when the flow comes ashore. It’s particularly good if there’s modified arctic air involved, as it can mean a strait effect juicing up the moisture much like the famous lake effect of the Great Lakes does. It was delightful the night that happened late last December; Vancouver got about twice the snow as points further east.

Yeah we may have had some mist last night but 90% of the time we don’t get much here with a system diving out of the NW. I do like our chances with S/SW flow early next week though. 

 

Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-12

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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32 minutes ago, Phil said:

As bad as much of the US (including PNW) has had it this summer, Texas has had it worse.

This is legitimately shocking.

 

Dang, that's crazy, so 11x times as many days. Their suppose to hit 101 tomorrow and then the next week the forecast will be upper 90's/100. There doesn't seem to be any relief in sight. They are also in a exceptional drought. I just read that the water they do have is stagnant so its really unhealthy with higher than normal levels of bacteria, parasites, molds and deadly amoeba. ☹🤢

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25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

July this year was dead ringer for July 1955.

Large scale homogeneities > small scale divergence.

Also, 2+2=4.

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  • Longtimer

We had 0.48" of rain in July, which is below the long term average, but more than we have seen in recent Julys. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Large scale homogeneities > small scale divergence.

Also, 2+2=4.

Nice that we scored a decent summer thanks to some more small scale divergence.   We are on a lucky roll with summers lately!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nice that we scored a decent summer thanks to some more small scale divergence.   We are on a lucky roll with summers lately!

TROLOLOL

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

TROLOLOL

Narrowly dodged the 1955 summer bullet once again.  So close.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nice that we scored a decent summer thanks to some more small scale divergence.   We are on a lucky roll with summers lately!

Simply more 4CH influence than 1955, makes a difference on the fringes for 5-6 weeks during the summer.

Seasonally-discontinuous interdecadal variability is nothing new. Ask the Plains during the 1930s. Of course that didn’t always translate into the winter.

25 years later those same regions experienced the coolest/wettest decade of summers since the early/mid 19th century.

The current cycle of broad/poleward W-Hem z-cells (and by consequence, the seasonal enlargement of the 4CH) will attenuate, likewise. These base states are not “stable” at all, and can be terminated by relatively minor stimuli. Just needs to happen at the right moment in time.

Question is, when? Could be next year, could be in a decade. Though it usually happens during the inclining phase of the solar cycle.

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  • Longtimer
1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Partly sunny and pleasant here this morning. A few clouds up along the ridgeline. 

I see Phoenix got 0.58" of rain this morning with some areas in the 1-2" range. What a blessing for them. 

christmas vacation the blessing GIF

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Picked up a quarter inch of rain here. First rain in almost a month.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

This storm sat over the Reno airport yesterday and gave them more rain in 1 hour than they have had since Jan 1st - Aug 3rd

 

20220804_062128.jpg

Great pic.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
9 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

This storm sat over the Reno airport yesterday and gave them more rain in 1 hour than they have had since Jan 1st - Aug 3rd

 

20220804_062128.jpg

Amazing pic. I flew over Reno yesterday, there were a lot of storms building over the Sierras already around noon. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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