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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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KSEA avoided a 70F today. High of 69F.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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7C0E801C-8AC6-4B28-9F9E-A6292AAD6787.png

Winter arrived a bit earlier than I thought.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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12 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

He's not wrong.

Then it should be removed from the emoticon list here.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 hours ago, Phil said:

Lol. I fully expect a nuclear blowtorch out here until proven otherwise. Especially during the autumn months. 

Larry Cosgrove is also hype up about the fall and winter so it will be interesting to see what happens dispite the mass disagreement between Larry and others his summer forecasts has been one of the most accurate that was made.Not sure what that means going for word 🤔 but will be interesting to see if he continues to be right despite it not making any since lol.It could be that he more of a old school type then a new school.Not to offend Larry but I think he stays in the old school ways to much and does not  give the newer forecasting enough credit but it is his right and it is fair enough.We are all stuck in our own  ways at something in life.it is not easy to  accept change.

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Decent GFS run.

1660543200-ngcixrFR4Fo.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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12 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Sadly no rain like forecasted today.  Currently 59F. 

2022-08-04 21.20.04.jpg

I'll gladly take what we are having right now.  40s tonight for a lot of places.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Still absolutely nothing shown for the Atlantic.  Pretty weird with a multi year Nina going.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Posted (edited)

50! Brrrrrrrr

E106EF6B-3784-4B75-B9FF-CFC50DD5A35C.jpeg

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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WILDFIRE UPDATE 

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/4/22 

Washington - 4 (Big slow down in new fires today, but sadly those fast moving brushfires from the other day are still spreading and causing them to be labeled as "large" fires in WA  So there are now four large fires in WA.  Prior to the heatwave, there was zero.  They are called the Williams Lake Fire, Stayman Fire, Vantage Highway Fire, and the new Cow Canyon Fire. The positive news is, while these are larger fires, they are all listed as having minimal impact and a low chance of becoming a big issue. Total fires dropped from 33 to 26. ) Total: 26

Oregon - 7 (Cooler weather helped damper OR fire growth, but there is still a lot.  Yesterday there were two major fires in the state, that number has jumped to five, all located within the Cascade Range or Eastern OR.  The large fires are the fast spreading Miller Road Fire in Wasco County, the Beech Creek Fire near John Day, the Willow Creek Fire near Ontario, which is finally slowing down, the new Cedar Creek Fire and Windigo Fire deep in the Cascade's  Fire crews are at both Cascade Range fires. Good and bad news along the OR-CA border.  The two massive fires are slowing down, but embers from those fires have created a brand new fast burning fire called the Smokey Fire deep in the Klamath's. The total has dropped from 60 to 50 thanks to effective firefighters.) Total: 50

Idaho - 0 (No new fires.  Two major fires still exist, the Moose Fire and Woodtick Fire in remote locations within the Bitterroot Range. Total drops from 4 to 3. ) Total: 3

British Columbia - 20 (Fires slowed slightly today due to cooler air.  Little progress has been made on any of the large fires in BC. There are currently six large fires, all located within the Kamloops and Southeast Districts.  The total amount of fires in the province remains at 62 thanks to smaller lightning induced fires burning out.) Total: 62 

SMOKE UPDATE

Smoke models show the majority of smoke blowing eastward, but possibly around August 5th, winds turn offshore and smoke could blow into the populated areas of the Puget Sound, Willamette Valley, and Lower Mainland.  Oregon's Jackson County and Klamath County remain under a poor air quality advisory due to the smoke from fires in California. A fire near Stayton that was producing smoke has been put out.  Eastern Oregon is going to be socked in by smoke aloft, and some low to mid-level smoke the closer you get to Klamath County. 

Smoke has led to moderate conditions in the Treasure Valley extending towards Ontario, Oregon.  All of Boise can expect this moderate to poor air for several days due to California wildfires.

Spokane and the Okananogan Valley of Washington will see moderate air quality.  Smoke from a fire in Ellensburg and outside of Spokane is hoaxing up the sky in Spokane County and rural counties to the west of it.

Smoke from the six major fires in BC is effecting mainly the regions the fires are located in, with smoke low to the ground, mid level, and aloft, as it gets trapped in the mountain valleys. The large fire near Penticton BC is causing dangerous air conditions around Penticton, but not Kelowna to the north as the smoke is flowing south into Washington's Okanogan Valley and mixing into the smoke that flows east to Spokane.  One can expect this smoke from BC to flow aloft over Idaho and Montana in the coming days.

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5 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

 

WILDFIRE UPDATE 

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/4/22 

Washington - 4 (Big slow down in new fires today, but sadly those fast moving brushfires from the other day are still spreading and causing them to be labeled as "large" fires in WA  So there are now four large fires in WA.  Prior to the heatwave, there was zero.  They are called the Williams Lake Fire, Stayman Fire, Vantage Highway Fire, and the new Cow Canyon Fire. The positive news is, while these are larger fires, they are all listed as having minimal impact and a low chance of becoming a big issue. Total fires dropped from 33 to 26. ) Total: 26

Oregon - 7 (Cooler weather helped damper OR fire growth, but there is still a lot.  Yesterday there were two major fires in the state, that number has jumped to five, all located within the Cascade Range or Eastern OR.  The large fires are the fast spreading Miller Road Fire in Wasco County, the Beech Creek Fire near John Day, the Willow Creek Fire near Ontario, which is finally slowing down, the new Cedar Creek Fire and Windigo Fire deep in the Cascade's  Fire crews are at both Cascade Range fires. Good and bad news along the OR-CA border.  The two massive fires are slowing down, but embers from those fires have created a brand new fast burning fire called the Smokey Fire deep in the Klamath's. The total has dropped from 60 to 50 thanks to effective firefighters.) Total: 50

Idaho - 0 (No new fires.  Two major fires still exist, the Moose Fire and Woodtick Fire in remote locations within the Bitterroot Range. Total drops from 4 to 3. ) Total: 3

British Columbia - 20 (Fires slowed slightly today due to cooler air.  Little progress has been made on any of the large fires in BC. There are currently six large fires, all located within the Kamloops and Southeast Districts.  The total amount of fires in the province remains at 62 thanks to smaller lightning induced fires burning out.) Total: 62 

SMOKE UPDATE

Smoke models show the majority of smoke blowing eastward, but possibly around August 5th, winds turn offshore and smoke could blow into the populated areas of the Puget Sound, Willamette Valley, and Lower Mainland.  Oregon's Jackson County and Klamath County remain under a poor air quality advisory due to the smoke from fires in California. A fire near Stayton that was producing smoke has been put out.  Eastern Oregon is going to be socked in by smoke aloft, and some low to mid-level smoke the closer you get to Klamath County. 

Smoke has led to moderate conditions in the Treasure Valley extending towards Ontario, Oregon.  All of Boise can expect this moderate to poor air for several days due to California wildfires.

Spokane and the Okananogan Valley of Washington will see moderate air quality.  Smoke from a fire in Ellensburg and outside of Spokane is hoaxing up the sky in Spokane County and rural counties to the west of it.

Smoke from the six major fires in BC is effecting mainly the regions the fires are located in, with smoke low to the ground, mid level, and aloft, as it gets trapped in the mountain valleys. The large fire near Penticton BC is causing dangerous air conditions around Penticton, but not Kelowna to the north as the smoke is flowing south into Washington's Okanogan Valley and mixing into the smoke that flows east to Spokane.  One can expect this smoke from BC to flow aloft over Idaho and Montana in the coming days.

I saw that Lind was evacuated and 10 structures lost, but then saw later they had it contained by end of the day.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Still absolutely nothing shown for the Atlantic.  Pretty weird with a multi year Nina going.

I’m sure something will blow up right off the coast when I’m in Saint Simons next week. Seems to happen every other year.

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70/54 here for Thursday.  That's a bona fide miracle by recent standards for early August.  Looks like an easy sub 50 low here for Friday.  That would be my first sub 50 low in the first week of August since 2008.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Night shift in Springfield currently at 58F and very pleasant. Beautiful starscape right now if y’all can get away from light pollution.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

70/54 here for Thursday.  That's a bona fide miracle by recent standards for early August.  Looks like an easy sub 50 low here for Friday.  That would be my first sub 50 low in the first week of August since 2008.

Not sure about the miracle part... at least in my area.  

North Bend had 5 days with highs in the 60s even in August 2015.   And that was a hot August.

In fact... there were days with highs in the 60s during the first half of August in every year except 2017.   

How about a high of 64 on 8-2-2018.  The high yesterday there was 70.

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, MV_snow said:

48 here. Jim called this being a cool morning for a while and was spot on.

45 this morning in North Bend.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z EPS showed the troughiest point being right now.    And looks quite warm later in the run.ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1659657600-1659657600-1660953600-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Satellite shows the low clouds are pretty sparse this morning.   Should be basically sunny until maybe Wednesday morning.  

Overall this has been a very sunny summer in my area since about mid June... with just a handful of cloudy days.   It has felt more sunny than usual.   The only cloudy days have been during genuine troughing.   No real surprise marine layer days.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A pretty chilly 49F here, just 3F shy of the daily record. KSEA has only dropped to 55F, which is honestly *peak* KSEA, considering that they fell to 51F the other morning with more cloudcover and a slightly warmer airmass.

Totally agree that elevating a thermometer 100' off the ground on the highest point in the city surrounded by fields of concrete is the best representation of a city's weather (🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

A pretty chilly 49F here, just 3F shy of the daily record. KSEA has only dropped to 55F, which is honestly *peak* KSEA, considering that they fell to 51F the other morning with more cloudcover and a slightly warmer airmass.

Totally agree that elevating a thermometer 100' off the ground on the highest point in the city surrounded by fields of concrete is the best representation of a city's weather (🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭)

The elevation of SEA at 400+ feet naturally makes that area warmer during radiational cooling.  My area is almost always warmer than North Bend on clear nights too.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not sure if anyone mentioned it but KSEA's normals started dropping on August 4th. All downhill from here, in terms of average temperature.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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45 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

A pretty chilly 49F here, just 3F shy of the daily record. KSEA has only dropped to 55F, which is honestly *peak* KSEA, considering that they fell to 51F the other morning with more cloudcover and a slightly warmer airmass.

Totally agree that elevating a thermometer 100' off the ground on the highest point in the city surrounded by fields of concrete is the best representation of a city's weather (🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭)

PDX only dropped to 59 too

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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22 hours ago, Phil said:

Nah this is almost certainly a western US centric winter. All signs point that way (powerful modoki niña in conjunction with descending +QBO and inclining solar cycle *screams* -PNA).

Could be some -NAO thrown in the mix, but without a subtropical jet, snowfall will be difficult to come by here. Result is usually a miller-B storm track that puts us in the dryslot.

We’ll probably get our turn during the next El Niño.

I really hope that California at least sees avg precip this winter

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9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

That would take me to over an inch for the month!

Would be the first rainfall here in a month. Hopefully we can score atleast  0.10” out of it somehow. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

970AEE51-A222-4D3B-82C6-5AA18699D016.jpeg

By the time 2011-40 averages come out, Seattle's average number of 90+ days will likely be close to double digits. Just getting to be the way it works now. 8-9 will start to feel like a totally average year there. Seattle's present summer climo is roughly what Portland's was from 1950-1980. And Portland's present summer climo is roughly what Roseburg's was from 1950-1980.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

By the time 2011-40 averages come out, Seattle's average number of 90+ days will likely be close to double digits. Just getting to be the way it works now. 8-9 will start to feel like a totally average year there. Seattle's present summer climo is roughly what Portland's was from 1950-1980. And Portland's present summer climo is roughly what Roseburg's was from 1950-1980.

Best Rodgers Tablet GIFs | Gfycat

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