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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

By the time 2011-40 averages come out, Seattle's average number of 90+ days will likely be close to double digits. Just getting to be the way it works now. 8-9 will start to feel like a totally average year there. Seattle's present summer climo is roughly what Portland's was from 1950-1980. And Portland's present summer climo is roughly what Roseburg's was from 1950-1980.

Yeah we’ve had 7 +90s here right on the water. We will see if we get any more out of this next heatwave but after a week of 90s this one will be much more bearable. 

 

Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Tim is gonna love this. #DeathRidgeDecember

 

November will be our time to shine this year! Also January. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I've been amusing myself with visions of what this forum might look like by Summer 2040.

TWL will run out of football jersey numbers as he commemorates 100º+ days in Eugene. Cascadia_Wx will bemoan the loss of the last native juniper-sage scrub habitat as date palms and cacti take over the Portland area. Jim will get unreasonably excited about the prospect of a chilly sub-60º low shown by the models. Everyone will be jealous of MossMan for reporting a string of highs only in the 80s. And Tim will still be complaining about the rain.

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

12z ICON shows two rounds of convection as the cutoff low drags ashore. One spotty outbreak on Tuesday morning and then a bigger regional event Tuesday overnight.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh84-132.gif

How long has it been since the last PDX-favored thunder event? coming up on 3 years in Seattle, but afaik it's been longer down there?

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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New pattern update from Brett Anderson through the end of August. I think we see more seasonal weather the 2nd half of August and he will end up being too warm for the PNW but we will see.

"The core of the heat is likely to be focused across the western two-thirds of North America over the next couple of weeks. There will likely be a decent cooldown with lower humidity across eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and the Northeast United States late next week till about Aug. 15, when it will start to warm up again, but not to the extent of what we will see farther west.

The southwest U.S. monsoon will likely continue to be active much of this month, which may, in turn, lead to below-normal rainfall across southwestern Canada."

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-weather-pattern-update/1227874

N.America-North-copy-4.webp.14ab8c64037022a33f0389b8c2a2acd1.webp

N.America-North-copy-5.webp.d992e64f86aacbe376b32779db4bf9f9.webp

N.America-North-copy-6.webp.ed5e02f1c4b2338e0db3d67160498e0a.webp

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

12z ICON shows two rounds of convection as the cutoff low drags ashore. One spotty outbreak on Tuesday morning and then a bigger regional event Tuesday overnight.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh84-132.gif

I only say this because that is the day I leave town, and I want to be here for it...

 

 

no-michael-scott.gif

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22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

November will be our time to shine this year! Also January. 

I am feeling the same thing... November could be pretty interesting this year.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

How long has it been since the last PDX-favored thunder event? coming up on 3 years in Seattle, but afaik it's been longer down there?

September 2020 maybe, the thunderstorms that cleared out the smoke. I don't remember these well, so I must've been asleep since it occurred during the night.
 

Sept2020Thunderstorms.gif

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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34 minutes ago, Phil said:

Tim is gonna love this. #DeathRidgeDecember

 

Months of talk about a serious payback summer and something closer to 2015 than 1999 happens.  

Weeks of telling me that we will die of heat in MN and it was a gorgeous week... more cool than warm with only about 4 hours of humidity before the dewpoints plunged again.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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36 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

I've been amusing myself with visions of what this forum might look like by Summer 2040.

TWL will run out of football jersey numbers as he commemorates 100º+ days in Eugene. Cascadia_Wx will bemoan the loss of the last native juniper-sage scrub habitat as date palms and cacti take over the Portland area. Jim will get unreasonably excited about the prospect of a chilly sub-60º low shown by the models. Everyone will be jealous of MossMan for reporting a string of highs only in the 80s. And Tim will still be complaining about the rain.

And we still won’t have had a white Christmas since 1990.

  • Snow 1
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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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41 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

How long has it been since the last PDX-favored thunder event? coming up on 3 years in Seattle, but afaik it's been longer down there?

Had a decent early morning event in September 2020 following firefest. Also a couple of decent events in 2019 (early September and early July). Nothing on the level of some of our bigger events though. 

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Had a decent early morning event in September 2020 following firefest. Also a couple of decent events in 2019 (early September and early July). Nothing on the level of some of our bigger events though. 

6/26/19 was pretty epic.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Had a decent early morning event in September 2020 following firefest. Also a couple of decent events in 2019 (early September and early July). Nothing on the level of some of our bigger events though. 

I think in September 2019 we had two days of thunderstorms that were good for my area, on the first day there was a tornado a less than 5 miles away from me and then the second day dropped nearly 2 inches of rain in an hour.

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

6/26/19 was pretty epic.

This is all I have for that day…

54078072-3D7D-4A64-9D38-F0E462513DEF.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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26 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I think in September 2019 we had two days of thunderstorms that were good for my area, on the first day there was a tornado a less than 5 miles away from me and then the second day dropped nearly 2 inches of rain in an hour.

Some rain totals:

Rain Totals Metro Area.png

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

True that was pretty high end east of 205. Some borderline severe winds and hail. 

I think there also a nice lightning event in the East Metro in May 2020 as well

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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6 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12z EURO showing some lightning ⚡ west of the Cascades on Tuesday and even more so on Wednesday morning.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2022080512_102_5618_548.thumb.png.64509aae6770566a5b5959b47a37c67b.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2022080512_117_5618_548.thumb.png.0678762e2775a6851d1ef2f23b1abb46.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2022080512_120_5618_548.thumb.png.9f182c3055447709994237df33f14210.png

Looks like both the ICON and ECMWF show areas North of Portland doing good, I hope that moves south a bit.

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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32 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I think in September 2019 we had two days of thunderstorms that were good for my area, on the first day there was a tornado a less than 5 miles away from me and then the second day dropped nearly 2 inches of rain in an hour.

Yep, that was an awesome month for the region. The big light show in the Puget Sound on the 7th, the juicy cold core storms on the 8th that produced the tornadic storm over the west metro, and then we got pounded again on the 10th with about 2" of rain falling here. Then the "arctic front" on the 29th which produced a 49F high here. All in all finished with about 6" of rain that month. The second historically active September in the last decade, following 2013.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Yep, that was an awesome month for the region. The big light show in the Puget Sound on the 7th, the juicy cold core storms on the 8th that produced the tornadic storm over the west metro, and then we got pounded again on the 10th with about 2" of rain falling here. Then the "arctic front" on the 29th which produced a 49F high here. All in all finished with about 6" of rain that month. The second historically active September in the last decade, following 2013.

That fall didn't we have arctic air in late September, mid October, late October and even kind of late November? November 2019 was the only time Hillsboro dropped below 20 since Jan 2017 besides Feb 2022. 

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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10 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12z EURO showing some lightning ⚡ west of the Cascades on Tuesday and even more so on Wednesday morning.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2022080512_102_5618_548.thumb.png.64509aae6770566a5b5959b47a37c67b.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2022080512_117_5618_548.thumb.png.0678762e2775a6851d1ef2f23b1abb46.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2022080512_120_5618_548.thumb.png.9f182c3055447709994237df33f14210.png

It really is a primo setup for storms, particularly nocturnal ones. Can't ask for too much more this time of the year than a <570dm height cutoff trough rotating up from the south directly off the coast over a hot, unstable airmass across the region. With great PWAT values and strong diffluence aloft. 

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4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

That fall didn't we have arctic air in late September, mid October, late October and even kind of late November? November 2019 was the only time Hillsboro dropped below 20 since Jan 2017 besides Feb 2022. 

It was a very interesting fall. September was very active with lots of thunderstorms and rain. October as well atleast up here. Had some thunderstorms too and some record cold that month as well…lots of crisp clear cold days.  November was one of the driest ever. 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

That fall didn't we have arctic air in late September, mid October, late October and even kind of late November? November 2019 was the only time Hillsboro dropped below 20 since Jan 2017 besides Feb 2022. 

Yeah, the late November chilly stretch was more of a hybrid longwave Pacific trough + ensuing low level inversion rather than a true arctic airmass with deep offshore flow. But the other airmasses were all legitimate offseason arctic airmasses, and the late September setup in particular likely would have been a pretty major snowstorm and gorge outflow event on par with anything else we've seen this century had it been peak season. Think January 2004 or  February 2014. 

Edited by BLI snowman
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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, the late November chilly stretch was more of a hybrid longwave Pacific trough + ensuing low level inversion rather than a true arctic airmass with deep offshore flow. But the other airmasses were all legitimate offseason arctic airmasses, and the late September setup in particular likely would have been a pretty major snowstorm and gorge outflow event on par with anything else we've seen this century had it been peak season. Think January 2004 or  February 2014. 

What was the setup for Jan 2004? I've heard that the warmup kept getting postponed. Did the lows just stay offshore or something? I thought it would be a mostly east metro snow/west and south metro ZR event but it seems like the west metro also had 6-8" of snow as well

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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41 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12z EURO showing some lightning ⚡ west of the Cascades on Tuesday and even more so on Wednesday morning.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2022080512_102_5618_548.thumb.png.64509aae6770566a5b5959b47a37c67b.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2022080512_117_5618_548.thumb.png.0678762e2775a6851d1ef2f23b1abb46.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2022080512_120_5618_548.thumb.png.9f182c3055447709994237df33f14210.png

It certainly shows a lot of precipitation up here (almost an inch!) so I hope that would be accompanied by a good show!

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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15 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

What was the setup for Jan 2004? I've heard that the warmup kept getting postponed. Did the lows just stay offshore or something? I thought it would be a mostly east metro snow/west and south metro ZR event but it seems like the west metro also had 6-8" of snow as well

I believe they forecasted the warmup to be around the 3rd, then it was the 4th, then the 5th and when it was all said and done the big “thaw” was on the 7th west metro and the 8th east of 205. Quite a winter before that but after the 8th was pretty mild and bland. 

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

What was the setup for Jan 2004? I've heard that the warmup kept getting postponed. Did the lows just stay offshore or something? I thought it would be a mostly east metro snow/west and south metro ZR event but it seems like the west metro also had 6-8" of snow as well

Arctic front dropped down on the 4th from a moderately impressive arctic airmass. A rather deep, slow, and broad offshore low really helped every step of the way with that. First with top tier gap CAA from the strong easterly gradients that developed, and then from the delayed warmup as it was too slow and far offshore to mix anything out at the lowest levels for days following the warm front.  That airmass also produced an unusually deep Columbia Basin cold pool, which was assisted by the heavy, widespread snowcover over there following the late December and New Years storms. 

Here's a good visual of the setup on the 6th as the warm front approached and the big snowstorm got going for the westside. 

https://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?lang=en&mod=ncep&area=na&yyyy=2004&mm=01&dd=06&run=06

Also a fun site to play around with whenever you want to view a historic setup.

The evolution of the beautiful Friday the 13th blizzard in January 1950, just as a fun example

1950011318.gif

1950011400.gif1950011406.gif

Edited by BLI snowman
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9 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

The best evening thunderstorm set-up I've witnessed here was July 13, 2012. A thunderstorm with a couple hundred strikes rolled overhead just about sunset and lead to some incredible strikes, some even within a couple hundred meters. These photos are all still frames from videos I took.

MVI_4893-B11.thumb.jpg.91f389cb8266685117cf43aca80b3c0a.jpgMVI_4897-A3.jpg.e42dd702b437f10acd489fdbdc1966bc.jpgMVI_4903-C1.thumb.jpg.845f16a606ee189971d8a4f02ec0da26.jpgMVI_4905-A6.thumb.jpg.355f71df483473db015a9d0455ff6ea0.jpg

Can we get another one of those next week?

Think I was up in sequim for that one as a kid. One of the better storms I’ve seen…there was another good one a week later too. 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

What was the setup for Jan 2004? I've heard that the warmup kept getting postponed. Did the lows just stay offshore or something? I thought it would be a mostly east metro snow/west and south metro ZR event but it seems like the west metro also had 6-8" of snow as well

We had a couple inches of snow with that one then some freezing rain for a bit, then a warmup on the 7th. Those were the first sub-freezing highs for here since Dec 1999. All in all a decent event but things like Dec 2013 were way better.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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Clear signal for another warm spell on the EPS after the ULL next week.   That is pretty warm for the cool bias EPS in the long range.  

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-9700800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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26 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Think I was up in sequim for that one as a kid. One of the better storms I’ve seen…there was another good one a week later too. 

Yeah, in general 2012 was a good summer for storms.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

18z jumping on board for a nice nocturnal show Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

image.gif

It seems like a more Puget Sound focused event based on this run and the ICON/Euro

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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3 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

It really is a primo setup for storms, particularly nocturnal ones. Can't ask for too much more this time of the year than a <570dm height cutoff trough rotating up from the south directly off the coast over a hot, unstable airmass across the region. With great PWAT values and strong diffluence aloft. 

Was going to say the parameters are great, the best in a few years.

  • Like 3

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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