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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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  • Longtimer
11 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

It seems like a more Puget Sound focused event based on this run and the ICON/Euro

Looks pretty good for the Portland area northwards. Best dynamics may cut off a little further south.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks pretty good for the Portland area northwards. Best dynamics may cut off a little further south.

The GFS is showing PWAT values 1.5"+ around the area as well. Hoping it moves south slightly though

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

I... don't think it ever went anywhere.

Winter-like 70 yesterday with clouds until about 2 or 3 p.m.  :(

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
Just now, Doiinko said:

The GFS is showing PWAT values 1.5"+ around the area as well. Hoping it moves south slightly though

Really that position off the SW OR coast is a prime one for the Willamette Valley as well. About as classic as it gets with the valleys maintaining SSE gradients aloft and advecting in mid level moisture. I get the sense there would be widespread opportunities for everyone west of the crest as that puppy moves north.

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On the North Dakota - Montana border.   Beach ND.   

Hundreds of miles of mid-level clouds with no rain or storms.    Gloomy!   Can't wait to get to the Seattle sunshine.    Should be home by dawn.

20220805_163815.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Really that position off the SW OR coast is a prime one for the Willamette Valley as well. About as classic as it gets with the valleys maintaining SSE gradients aloft and advecting in mid level moisture. I get the sense there would be widespread opportunities for everyone west of the crest as that puppy moves north.

That's good to hear, a full regionwide event would be very nice

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

On the North Dakota - Montana border.   Beach ND.   

Hundreds of miles of mid-level clouds with no rain or storms.    Gloomy!   Can't wait to get to the Seattle sunshine.    Should be home by dawn.

20220805_163815.jpg

Keep it at 88 or less thru Montana they have been stricter than usual. Almost got busted on Pipestone Pass west of Bozeman in April coming home from Yellowstone.

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  • Longtimer
28 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

It seems like a more Puget Sound focused event based on this run and the ICON/Euro

It could be close, but for now the overall pattern configuration is pretty legit. Just have to wait to see where the best mid level trigger emerges, but anywhere north of Salem or so will probably be under the gun.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It could be close, but for now the overall pattern configuration is pretty legit. Just have to wait to see where the best mid level trigger emerges, but anywhere north of Salem or so will probably be under the gun.

So the thunderless streak in Springfield will live on?

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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75/49 here today.  Pretty hard to beat that in early August.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

So the thunderless streak in Springfield will live on?

Seems like Springfield is just hell on Earth.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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  • Longtimer
37 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It could be close, but for now the overall pattern configuration is pretty legit. Just have to wait to see where the best mid level trigger emerges, but anywhere north of Salem or so will probably be under the gun.

I just told my dog…She’s not happy. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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17 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

So the thunderless streak in Springfield will live on?

I can’t remember the last time we had one. I remember hearing a lone crack of thunder back in Dec 2020 but besides that I can’t remember any significant thunder in my personal location wherever I was living since August of 2006. 

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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59 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

On the North Dakota - Montana border.   Beach ND.   

Hundreds of miles of mid-level clouds with no rain or storms.    Gloomy!   Can't wait to get to the Seattle sunshine.    Should be home by dawn.

20220805_163815.jpg

I like the mixture of sunny/overcast days we get out here. It's like they say, builds character!

Sun didn't come out all day here either but chances are it comes out tomorrow. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 43
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Seems like Springfield is just hell on Earth.

You would not like it here Jim.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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We have a local groundhog that occasionally pops by, looks around, then retreats into this little forested area located behind my street. 😇

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 43
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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WILDFIRE UPDATE  (Got to Admit it's gettin' Better Edition!)

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/5/22 

Washington - 0 (This is good news.  There are no reported new fires in the past 24hrs. There are now four large fires in WA all of which have crews actively trying to put them out. A brush fire neat Lind sprouted and reportedly burned some buildings, but as of today, the fire is now out. Many fires have been put out, the total has dropped from 26 to 19. ) Total: 19

Oregon - 1 (One new fire started in rural-nowhere between Bend and Burns. The amount of large fires has dropped to three.  The long-going brushfire near Ontario is finally out. The main watch is the spread of fires from Northern CA that are still raging and their embers are causing smaller fires. The total has dropped from 50 to 42 thanks to effective firefighting.) Total: 42

Idaho - 5 (Five new fires started, but have all either been contained or taken out already.  All were located within the Boise metro from human causes  The total fire count will still count these new fires, until tomorrow when they are officially removed from the fire list.  Two major fires still exist, the Moose Fire and Woodtick Fire in remote locations within the Bitterroot Range. The total number of fires in ID is now 8. ) Total: 8

British Columbia - 9 (Firefighters really need the help in BC and today was that day.  Only nine new fires. There are currently six large fires, all located within the Kamloops and Southeast Districts.  The Keremeos Creek Fire has become extremely dangerous, requiring the evacuation of much of Keremeos, over 1,600 properties.  BC mapping has admitted they are days behind at mapping and keeping up with wildfire growth.  There are also some evacuations due to another major fire near Penticton.  The total amount of fires in the province drops from 62 to 58.) Total: 58

SMOKE UPDATE

Smoke models show the majority of smoke blowing eastward. Oregon's Jackson County and Klamath County remain under a poor air quality advisory due to the smoke from fires in California. Eastern Oregon is going to be socked in by smoke aloft, and some low to mid-level smoke the closer you get to Klamath County. 

Smoke has led to moderate conditions in the Treasure Valley extending towards Ontario, Oregon.  All of Boise can expect this moderate to poor air for several days due to California wildfires.

While air quality has improved in WA's Okanogan Valley, continue to expect smoke from BC to mix in during the course of their uncontrolled wildfires.  Spokane's air quality has improved to good for the time being.

Smoke from the six major fires in BC is effecting mainly the regions the fires are located in, with smoke low to the ground, mid level, and aloft, as it gets trapped in the mountain valleys. The large fire near Penticton BC is causing dangerous air conditions around Penticton, but not Kelowna to the north as the smoke is flowing south into.

One can expect this smoke from BC to flow aloft over Idaho and Montana in the coming days.  Smoke from California is currently aloft over southern Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. 

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55 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It could be close, but for now the overall pattern configuration is pretty legit. Just have to wait to see where the best mid level trigger emerges, but anywhere north of Salem or so will probably be under the gun.

So what happens to the south of there? Are we gonna be humid with southerly winds or will there even be any clouds? I'm really ignorant on these types of setups.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Seems like our month long dry streak for the majority of the Puget sound area will come to a close soon. 

Did the rain miss you yesterday? We got an about an hour of light rain from 6 to 7 AM. Just enough to wet the grass and turn off our sprinklers for one night.

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6 hours ago, Phil said:

Tim is gonna love this. #DeathRidgeDecember

 

I doubt Tim would actually love that. Ridging in December usually brings strong inversions, fog, chilly weather, and stagnant/polluted air. His best chance of seeing a rare glimpse of sun in December would be an arctic blast with cold and clear skies ( or going to Hawaii or Palm Springs lol).

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2 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Did the rain miss you yesterday? We got an about an hour of light rain from 6 to 7 AM. Just enough to wet the grass and turn off our sprinklers for one night.

Might’ve drizzled a bit but we didn’t get anything measurable and the ground was dry. You’re up closer to the foothills so you were able to squeeze out a bit more precip. 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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1 minute ago, MV_snow said:

I doubt Tim would actually love that. Ridging in December usually brings strong inversions, fog, chilly weather, and stagnant/polluted air. His best chance of seeing a rare glimpse of sun in December would be an arctic blast with cold and clear skies ( or going to Hawaii or Palm Springs lol).

Usually he’s above the inversion layer though at 1000’. 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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Looks like we’ve gotten to 87F. Nice day!

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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Was pretty warm in Seattle ten years ago today.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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20 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

True. And if not it’s a short drive to Snoqualmie Pass.

We usually have lots of sun at our house during inversions in December and January. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We’re usually not quite high enough to avoid it. It’s my least favorite type of weather in the winter. The air actually smelled bad last January toward the end of the fogversion.

I love cold in winter but never root for fake cold.

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16 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

We’re usually not quite high enough to avoid it. It’s my least favorite type of weather in the winter. The air actually smelled bad last January toward the end of the fogversion.

I love cold in winter but never root for fake cold.

This is why I just don’t get anyone who says 1998-99 was a dud or bad winter.

Avoided both endless ridging/inversions and SW flow crap for the most part.

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

This is why I just don’t get anyone who says 1998-99 was a dud or bad winter.

Avoided both endless ridging/inversions and SW flow crap for the most part.

I don't mind inversions that much, but probably because I get downslope westerly flow and downslope easterly flow from the West Hills, so fog isn't as common here.

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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49 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Was pretty warm in Seattle ten years ago today.

93? A record.

pretty much on par with what we dealt with last week.

looking ahead, we probably won’t touch the 1972 records for Sat/Sun

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7 hours ago, Doiinko said:

Looks like both the ICON and ECMWF show areas North of Portland doing good, I hope that moves south a bit.

 

7 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

It really is a primo setup for storms, particularly nocturnal ones. Can't ask for too much more this time of the year than a <570dm height cutoff trough rotating up from the south directly off the coast over a hot, unstable airmass across the region. With great PWAT values and strong diffluence aloft. 

Seems like the summer version of a transition event. This time instead of warmer air colliding with colder air already in place it's the opposite. Gonna be exciting on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

ec-fast_T850a_wus_4.thumb.png.68dfbe295053afe2b896daa80673972c.png

ec-fast_T850a_wus_5.thumb.png.28da7eb1043df23157cc61f7d20b768b.png

ec-fast_T850a_wus_6.thumb.png.235a2c95101b95e65f26b080c214763b.png

 

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18Z EPS keeps Seattle just below 90 on Sunday and Monday.   Probably 91 or 92 at best those days.    But any more 90-degree days moves us up in the rankings and closer to the 2015 record.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

Seems like the summer version of a transition event. This time instead of warmer air colliding with colder air already in place it's the opposite. Gonna be exciting on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

ec-fast_T850a_wus_4.thumb.png.68dfbe295053afe2b896daa80673972c.png

ec-fast_T850a_wus_5.thumb.png.28da7eb1043df23157cc61f7d20b768b.png

ec-fast_T850a_wus_6.thumb.png.235a2c95101b95e65f26b080c214763b.png

 

Yeah... pretty classic set up.   I hope it dumps a bunch of rain with the convection. 

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

On the North Dakota - Montana border.   Beach ND.   

Hundreds of miles of mid-level clouds with no rain or storms.    Gloomy!   Can't wait to get to the Seattle sunshine.    Should be home by dawn.

20220805_163815.jpg

Plenty of rain and storms in the clouds out here today. Picked up 0.20” with another storm currently pushing through.
 

CPC has us under a marginal risk for flooding tomorrow and highs only in the 60’s. Dynamic!

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... pretty classic set up.   I hope it dumps a bunch of rain with the convection. 

For what its worth, when I lived in K-Falls I never had a dry t'storm in August. They typically happened in the first half of summer only for some reason in that area. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 43
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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