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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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While thunderstorms are neat and all I've kind of switched to not rooting for them by the time late July and August comes around. Most of the time they do not pack enough moisture this time of year and are highly likely to cause new fire starts. 

I'll never forget the Bridger Foothills fire in Bozeman in 2020 started from a lightning holdover that took nearly 10 days to finally flare up with the westerlies and those storms were wet!

day2otlk_fire.gif

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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25 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The 👌 "okay" emoji has been banned due to potential confusion or misuse. It's association with the white power movement is very real, and Andrew's gripe with that makes sense.

Thanks for removing it.   I had literally no idea.   Of course the best thing to do in that case is simply mention that it has a darker meaning so someone can fix it.  Rather than launching a 2-day brutal and ruthless personal attack with no basis in reality.   Of course that makes sense.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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32 minutes ago, James Jones said:

And 11 in the last three years, which is the most Portland has ever seen in a 3 year stretch with the old record being 9. 100 degree days per decade at PDX:

40s: 12

50s: 2

60s: 7

70s: 15

80s: 15

90s: 12

00s: 15

10s: 11

20s: 11 so far

The number of 90 degree days has been trending up significantly but up until now the number of extreme 100+ days has been pretty constant for the last 50 years, though that may be changing.

  

I don't know what the guy's deal is but he's basically a straight up climate change denier at this point. Several years back I remember him making a blog post about how our fire seasons haven't been changing in length, and his "evidence" was to show March-April-May temperature and precip trends hadn't changed much over the last century. That was when I stopped reading his blog entirely.

He’s basically Tim with a bigger microphone.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Thanks for removing it.   I had literally no idea.   Of course the best thing to do in that case is simply mention that it has a darker meaning so someone can fix it.  Rather than launching a 2-day brutal and ruthless personal attack with no basis in reality.   Of course that makes sense.   

Seconded

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ref1km_ptype.us_nw.png

ref1km_ptype.us_nw.png
Looks like some possible shower activity Monday night into Tuesday according to the HRRR

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

He’s basically Tim with a bigger microphone.

This year has convinced me that the summer trend might be much more long term.   I was sure this would be a cool summer given the ENSO situation.    Threatening the 90-degree days record from 2015 at SEA is not what I expected.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This is before the "main" wave of convection I think
qpf_acc.us_nw.png

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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51 minutes ago, James Jones said:

I don't know what the guy's deal is but he's basically a straight up climate change denier at this point. Several years back I remember him making a blog post about how our fire seasons haven't been changing in length, and his "evidence" was to show March-April-May temperature and precip trends hadn't changed much over the last century. That was when I stopped reading his blog entirely.

He insists he's not a "denier," but then he goes to great lengths to cherry-pick, massage, and misrepresent data in order to back his narrative that the climate isn't actually getting warmer, at least in the PNW.

I agree with his basic point that the media is frequently guilty of politicizing, sensationalizing, and misconstruing the facts about climate change, which does a disservice to the cause of finding out what's really happening. That doesn't mean he's justified in doing the same thing, though. The hypocrisy is what I object to.

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This year has convinced me that the summer trend might be much more long term.   I was sure this would be a cool summer given the ENSO situation.    Threatening the 90-degree days record from 2015 at SEA is not what I expected.   

Better late than never!

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High of 90F at KSEA today. Barely clipped it during inter-hour obs.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Should be an identical day tomorrow for the Sound. Highs in the low 90s, lots of sun. Maybe some accas in the evening.

Should be noted too that the overnight lows haven't been torturous. Still pretty warm, but nothing like a week ago when it was struggling to drop below 70F. A somewhat cooler airmass with slightly worse dynamics.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Oops, meant to quote Eujunga’s last post here.

Very well said. I actually thought Cliff was a breath of fresh air at first when I thought “ok, this guy clearly believes in climate change, but he’s just pushing back against the most extreme doomers that say the world’s gonna end in 5 years.” I thought he was trying to take a nuanced approach. But clearly his analysis has gotten much worse in recent years. I think his constant battles against the extreme doomers has caused him to take the opposite extreme, lose belief that climate change is happening at all, and become willing to cherrypick stats to deny it.

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2 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Very well said. I actually thought Cliff was a breath of fresh air at first when I thought “ok, this guy clearly believes in climate change, but he’s just pushing back against the most extreme doomers that say the world’s gonna end in 5 years.” I thought he was trying to take a nuanced approach. But clearly his analysis has gotten much worse in recent years. I think his constant battles against the extreme doomers has caused him to take the opposite extreme, lose belief that climate change is happening at all, and become willing to cherrypick stats to deny it.

Both sides of political forces have decided to cherry pick, the metrics, so the real answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

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Found this from Sept 2019, the funnel cloud that touched down just around 3 miles away from me:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsPEuz3JuU0\

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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8 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Found this from Sept 2019, the funnel cloud that touched down just around 3 miles away from me:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsPEuz3JuU0\

Oh yeah, I remember that! It was a high humidity environment with weak rotation.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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31 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Should be an identical day tomorrow for the Sound. Highs in the low 90s, lots of sun. Maybe some accas in the evening.

Should be noted too that the overnight lows haven't been torturous. Still pretty warm, but nothing like a week ago when it was struggling to drop below 70F. A somewhat cooler airmass with slightly worse dynamics.

What is the 90 degree day count after tomorrow assuming it's a carbon copy of today?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Oh yeah, I remember that! It was a high humidity environment with weak rotation.

And it was a very rare example of a tornado that was not in Clark County! Not sure why that area gets so many

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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Just now, Doiinko said:

And it was a very rare example of a tornado that was not in Clark County! Not sure why that area gets so many

It's got a lot of shear in the lee of the north Coast Range, it's a bit of a thermal pocket in a valley, and it gets lift being in the foothills of the Cascades.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What is the 90 degree day count after tomorrow assuming it's a carbon copy of today?

Should be the 10th, which would place this year third after 2018 (11) and 2015 (12).

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's got a lot of shear in the lee of the north Coast Range, it's a bit of a thermal pocket in a valley, and it gets lift being in the foothills of the Cascades.

Oh okay, that makes sense, thanks for the explanation. Clark County always seems to get the interesting weather. I don't recall getting more snow then most of the area except maybe 2016/17 and Feb 2019 (Got lucky with ~3" on 2-25-19), though this area seems to probably have had a similar amount in December 2008 (22" to 24")

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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2 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Hey all, I'm officially new to this forum but I've lurked around here every once in a few days since December 2021 to follow on the snow forecasts, and ever since I just generally lurked to follow the weather while learning things bit by bit. 

I withheld on making an account because I don't have anything to contribute, I believe, and I wasn't sure how a newbie or an outsider would be treated. I have a very vague sense on how to read GFS or ECMWF maps but have no idea how to use them to predict the near future. Decided to finally make an account and dip my feet in to try this forum out, hopefully I can ask questions and learn along the way.  

Was always heavily interested in weather, as a kid I would make weekly forecasts on a whiteboard and my parents were so sure I was going to be a meteorologist, haha. Weather became more of a hobby/interest growing up as I chose to study computer science at UW.

The pic's from December 25, 2017 when we had that white Christmas morning and I made that puny snowman. Named him Cholito. 😁 Here's to an eventful snowy winter! 🍻

IMG-1226.jpg

You picked a hell of a time to join. Glad you're here though!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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7 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Hey all, I'm officially new to this forum but I've lurked around here every once in a few days since December 2021 to follow on the snow forecasts, and ever since I just generally lurked to follow the weather while learning things bit by bit. 

I withheld on making an account because I don't have anything to contribute, I believe, and I wasn't sure how a newbie or an outsider would be treated. I have a very vague sense on how to read GFS or ECMWF maps but have no idea how to use them to predict the near future. Decided to finally make an account and dip my feet in to try this forum out, hopefully I can ask questions and learn along the way.  

Was always heavily interested in weather, as a kid I would make weekly forecasts on a whiteboard and my parents were so sure I was going to be a meteorologist, haha. Weather became more of a hobby/interest growing up as I chose to study computer science at UW.

The pic's from December 25, 2017 when we had that white Christmas morning and I made that puny snowman. Named him Cholito. 😁 Here's to an eventful snowy winter! 🍻

IMG-1226.jpg

 

Welcome aboard!

Always feel free to ask if you ever have any questions about anything. At its best this forum can be a great tool for folks sharing information and breaking model data down.

And with the thunderstorms this coming week we should have our first legitimately interesting weather to track in awhile coming up soon!

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26 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Oh okay, that makes sense, thanks for the explanation. Clark County always seems to get the interesting weather. I don't recall getting more snow then most of the area except maybe 2016/17 and Feb 2019 (Got lucky with ~3" on 2-25-19), though this area seems to probably have had a similar amount in December 2008 (22" to 24")

When there's strong enough offshore flow and downslope winds coming off the foothills, the south and southwest suburbs can definitely do better as our moisture will get devoured. 2/25/2019 was one such example. As was 12/14/2008. And 1/8/1993, 2/2/1989, 12/24/1983, and 12/5/1972 if you want to go back further with some more examples. The downslope in 2016-17 wasn't as bad but there was some definitely some drying component with the 12/14/16 and 1/10/17 storms near the foothills which made those snowier close to I-5.

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9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Welcome aboard!

Always feel free to ask if you ever have any questions about anything. At its best this forum can be a great tool for folks sharing information and breaking model data down.

And with the thunderstorms this coming week we should have our first legitimately interesting weather to track in awhile coming up soon!

Gonna be some good convective talk on this forum over the next few days. I'll make Husky learn something, whether they want to or not!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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I love heat lightening! 😍

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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23 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Yesterday or the day before, I saw a post that went like "we don't want people to leave or scare away new people from this forum", and I said to myself "eff it, I'll join". 😅 I took that as a cue to finally make an account. I'm pretty well aware of the in's and out's of the forum just from lurking for months. It sounds kind of stalker-ish lol, but I loved lurking on here cause of the great analysis on PNW weather, while also being a good replacement away from Cliff Mass' blog. Never thought I'd join but here I am! 😋

We have lurkers from this April at the latest who still continue to stay in the background. Apparently there are some that have lurked for years, not just since Dec 2021. Stalker-ish doesn't cut it.. ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

When there's strong enough offshore flow and downslope winds coming off the foothills, the south and southwest suburbs can definitely do better as our moisture will get devoured. 2/25/2019 was one such example. As was 12/14/2008. And 1/8/1993, 2/2/1989, 12/24/1983, and 12/5/1972 if you want to go back further with some more examples. The downslope in 2016-17 wasn't as bad but there was some definitely some drying component with the 12/14/16 and 1/10/17 storms near the foothills which made those snowier close to I-5.

Was 2/1995 one of those types? I thought that the highest totals were in the SW Metro area, but I'm not sure

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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@snow_wizard The ECMWF showed 82 at SEA today... the GFS showed 90.    Actual high was 90.   

ECMWF was 8 degrees too cold.    Just blanket shaving 5 degrees off the GFS does not always work.   That only works on days with morning low clouds and afternoon sun.   The GFS is also often too cold on totally cloudy days.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00z GFS has a stronger, more enclosed low closer to the I5 corridor with better negative tilting. Also more diffluence over the area. Improvements for lightning all around.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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WILDFIRE UPDATE   (Zero Is Good Edition!)

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/7/22 

Washington - 0 (Third day of no new fires in Washington.  Three large fires in the state; Cow Canyon Fire, Vantage Highway Fire, and Williams Lake Fire. Total fires statewide has dropped from 12 to 11, the lowest level since I've been doing this for about two weeks.) Total: 12

Oregon - 0 (No new fires in OR today for the second straight day. There are three large fires in the state. Many fires have been put out in the past 24hrs. The total amount of fires has dropped from 35 to 32.) Total: 32

Idaho - 0 (No new fires in the state for the second straight day. Two major fires still exist, the Moose Fire and Woodtick Fire in remote locations within the Bitterroot Range. The total number of fires remains at 3. ) Total: 3

British Columbia - 7 (Seven new fires in the province. There are now eight large wildfires in BC. BC fire crews have struggled all summer to contain fires. The total amount of fires in the province increases from 56 to 61.) Total: 61

SMOKE UPDATE

Smoke is floating aloft over most of Oregon and eastern Washington.  It may drift into Western Washington with no air quality impacts.  Offshore air has taken the smoke from the east and moved it towards the west.  Despite this, Jackson County OR and Klamath County OR are no longer under poor air advisories. Dangerous air quality is currently over Cave Junction OR.  All the smoke aloft is purely from fires in California and British Columbia.  Washington and Oregon wildfires have produced no smoke beyond their localized areas.

As the offshore flow shifts to onshore on Tuesday, expect smoke to once again move eastward. 

260989744_ScreenShot2022-08-07at9_02_35PM.png

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58 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Hey all, I'm officially new to this forum...

 

Hey there!  Welcome to the community!  I'm "kinda new" myself and have found the people here to be very welcoming and helpful.  I don't know nearly as much as the great minds here, and they've all been helpful at explaining things for me and answering my questions!  So if you ever have questions or are unsure like I am all the time (lol) feel free to let it out!  Welcome to the community again and look forward to seeing you around! :)

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4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Was 2/1995 one of those types? I thought that the highest totals were in the SW Metro area, but I'm not sure

 Got about 6" with that where I was living in the Salmon Creek vicinity. It was definitely a bit snowier in downtown Portland but the offshore flow didn't screw things up too badly for anybody as it didn't quite reach mountain wave (downslope) gradient status with wind coming over the foothills. PDX and the areas most exposed to the gorge winds had a little trouble with measurements with so much blowing/drifting.

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1 hour ago, plainguy said:

A high of 96F today around 3PM. Currently 57F at 7:30.  Gotta love living near the beach. 2 miles SW of AST. 

I was at the Coast today in Seaside. It was in the low 80s and sunny there, then I headed south down 101 and the temps plummeted to 55 with dense fog up in the higher terrain, even had some drizzle. It cleared up again just past Barview.

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21 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z GFS has a stronger, more enclosed low closer to the I5 corridor with better negative tilting. Also more diffluence over the area. Improvements for lightning all around.

Most of our transient nocturnal t-storm events have been a result of negative tilting, unless otherwise associated with deep thermal troughing/monsoonal moisture.

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26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

@snow_wizard The ECMWF showed 82 at SEA today... the GFS showed 90.    Actual high was 90.   

ECMWF was 8 degrees too cold.    Just blanket shaving 5 degrees off the GFS does not always work.   That only works on days with morning low clouds and afternoon sun.   The GFS is also often too cold on totally cloudy days.

@FroYoBro what exactly do you think you are accomplishing by down voting every post by TT? 

It kind of loses its meaning.

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