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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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Just now, RentonHillTC said:

jeebus

 

ecmwf-ensemble-KPDX-indiv_tmp_max-9960000.png

So many members over 100 wow

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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15 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Well I’ve given it some thought and Ive changed my mind and think I’ll stick around. Get a good feeling after the incident a few days ago that type of thing won’t be tolerated again so maybe it’ll be a good thing moving forward. 

Looks like I’m off the wagon as well. My wife won’t even look at my pictures of clouds, so looks like I’ll have to continue to post them here. 

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17 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Looks like I’m off the wagon as well. My wife won’t even look at my pictures of clouds, so looks like I’ll have to continue to post them here. 

LOL.

Same here.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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25 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Looks like I’m off the wagon as well. My wife won’t even look at my pictures of clouds, so looks like I’ll have to continue to post them here. 

Same my friends and family don’t appreciate the photos I like to take 😂

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

82 at PDX. Smelling an underperformance.

High clouds and lowering heights with the approaching cutoff low are definitely impacting things today. As evidenced by how much warmer it is up north.

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2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

90 at seatac. 

Might be a rounding error still. They should reach it though since they were 1 degree  warmer than yesterday at the 2:53 hourly measurement.

SEA’s all time record for 90+ degree days is 12 and today would be their tenth this Summer I believe.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Might be a rounding error still. They should reach it though since they were 1 degree  warmer than yesterday at the 2:53 hourly measurement.

SEA’s all time record for 90+ degree days is 12 and today would be their tenth this Summer I believe.

I’m seeing it on this site. Is this an automated conversion from celsius and we need to wait for a confirmation of some kind?

This would be number 10 if it’s official. 

65575B76-6ADC-4F19-A801-568EBB78570A.png

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11 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I’m seeing it on this site. Is this an automated conversion from celsius and we need to wait for a confirmation of some kind?

This would be number 10 if it’s official. 

65575B76-6ADC-4F19-A801-568EBB78570A.png

Have to wait until 3:53 p.m. update which is considered top of the hour for some reason.    The inter-hour observations can be off due to rounding and might not represent actual high for the day.   Although many times the high temp is higher than all of the hourly observations for the day.     No idea why.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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With SE flow this is just perfect for storm lovers. Always fun to see these storms pop to the south and move over the lowlands. 
 

...Central Oregon (near/east of the Cascades)...
   Downstream (to the northeast of the approaching mid-level low),
   forcing for ascent is generally forecast to contribute to
   considerable thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
   evening.  Forecast soundings indicate that CAPE may remain limited
   to 500-1000 J/kg or less, but beneath 30-70 kt southerly flow in the
   500-300 mb layer, strong deep-layer shear will be at least
   conditionally supportive of isolated supercells posing a risk to
   produce severe hail and locally strong surface gusts.
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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Have to wait until 3:53 p.m. update which is considered top of the hour for some reason.    The inter-hour observations can be off due to rounding and might not represent actual high for the day.   Although many times the high temp is higher than all of the hourly observations for the day.     No idea why.  

For some reason they take the initial measurements in Celcius and then report the inter-hour ones as the nearest Fahrenheit value. So sometimes the real value is higher and sometimes it's lower. Really pretty dumb and unnecessarily confusing. 

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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Still 88 at SEA on the 4 p.m. observation... no change from last hour.   

And 90 degrees is still not official.    Now we wait until the next update at 4:53 p.m.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

that warm pool/blob over the N Pacific seems to be a semi permanent feature now and maybe wasn't as profound the last time we had a triple decker Nina

It's actually an extreme -PDO though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The weeklies show the pattern becoming more favorable in September with PNA going minus again.  Until then...more heat unless something changes.  Certainly a bit of a break in the near term with the ULL however.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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12 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Ugh. The models seem totally locked in on this one 10 days out. 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1659981600-1660392000-1660867200-5.gif

12z EPS has Portland’s 850 mean at 22°C and both the operational and control getting to high 20s at 10-11 days out. Pretty hard to get a stronger heat signal at that range.

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's actually an extreme -PDO though.

Working wonders this year... another frigid summer!     Maybe we need a +PDO with a strengthening Nino?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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To follow up on Tonga... based on this it seems like the effect would be pretty minor overall.

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/tonga-volcano-spews-enough-water-to-fill-58-000-pools-into-stratosphere-likely-to-add-to-global-warming-84150

Volcanic eruption in Tonga recorded January 15, 2022 is likely to add to global warming and the depletion of Earth’s ozone layer, according to a new study.

The violent underwater eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai injected 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapour into the stratosphere. The stratosphere is the layer of atmosphere between 10-50 kilometres above the surface of the Earth.

The water vapour, a greenhouse gas, released by the volcano, is roughly 10 per cent of the water already present in the stratosphere, noted the study published in Geophysical Letters July 1, 2022.

“Tonga eruption may be the first volcanic eruption observed to impact climate not through surface cooling caused by volcanic sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming caused by excess water vapour,” the study noted.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Still 88 at SEA on the 4 p.m. observation... no change from last hour.   

And 90 degrees is still not official.    Now we wait until the next update at 4:53 p.m.  

Hmmm. Confusing. The 4:53 update typically includes min/max temps for the previous six hours. Are those min/max temps official?

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1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Hmmm. Confusing. The 4:53 update typically includes min/max temps for the previous six hours. Are those min/max temps official?

As far as I know... those are official.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

Feels amazing! Slept in and was lazy this morning so I didn’t hit the river today. Might go out this evening. Headed home tomorrow morning to beat the booms that one of my dogs is so sensitive to she will actually harm herself trying to hide so I want to be there to make sure she as comfortable as possible. 

5D87A0DD-9265-4F14-98D7-92F3DF57AB70.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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35 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Feels like the worst of summer may still be ahead of us, even after the last heat wave of 5 days above 100 here.  oof

Wait until the smoke season kicks in. That is always the worst of summer in my book.

Currently 82˚F after a high of 85.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, Seattle said:

90 burger at KSEA! Day 10, which will surely grow based on how the extended is looking...

Actually managed 91 there!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

To follow up on Tonga... based on this it seems like the effect would be pretty minor overall.

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/tonga-volcano-spews-enough-water-to-fill-58-000-pools-into-stratosphere-likely-to-add-to-global-warming-84150

Volcanic eruption in Tonga recorded January 15, 2022 is likely to add to global warming and the depletion of Earth’s ozone layer, according to a new study.

The violent underwater eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai injected 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapour into the stratosphere. The stratosphere is the layer of atmosphere between 10-50 kilometres above the surface of the Earth.

The water vapour, a greenhouse gas, released by the volcano, is roughly 10 per cent of the water already present in the stratosphere, noted the study published in Geophysical Letters July 1, 2022.

“Tonga eruption may be the first volcanic eruption observed to impact climate not through surface cooling caused by volcanic sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming caused by excess water vapour,” the study noted.

Would probably be a delayed warming effect, similar to how volcanic cooling is delayed by 6-24 months too.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

87/57 today in Tacoma down to 85. Heatwave wasn’t too bad here atleast. 85/57 yesterday 

Touched 90 here before the high clouds moved in. 87 now. Doesn’t feel bad out given I’m lounging on the patio with a beer. 

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Would probably be a delayed warming effect, similar to how volcanic cooling is delayed by 6-24 months too.

Probably true... although it's been 8 months now.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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