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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming. 
Still 104. 

356FE3AE-AFD8-4C11-8E22-E799C6A75EA6.jpeg

Stick a fork in it.   Summer is over.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming. 
Still 104. 

356FE3AE-AFD8-4C11-8E22-E799C6A75EA6.jpeg

104* Lake Havasu as well!  Water temp 87* , felt like a bathtub!!!

Decided to drop down a bit out of the monsoonal flow to see what this party lake was all about.  Pretty sure this is not my thing but looking forward to the sunset walk around the London Bridge 

7D24FEF2-0528-48D3-B66B-2CCE627A0B78.png

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18 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

104* Lake Havasu as well!  Water temp 87* , felt like a bathtub!!!

Decided to drop down a bit out of the monsoonal flow to see what this party lake was all about.  Pretty sure this is not my thing but looking forward to the sunset walk around the London Bridge 

7D24FEF2-0528-48D3-B66B-2CCE627A0B78.png

Toasty water! 62 degree water temp on the Columbia! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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WILDFIRE UPDATE   (It had to end sometime...Edition!)

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/8/22 

Washington - 12 (After three days of no new fires, fires have sparked up all across the state today making a total of 12.  The new Whitcomb Fire west of Paterson is fast expanding. There are now four large fires in the state; Cow Canyon Fire, Vantage Highway Fire, Williams Lake Fire, and the Riparia Fire. The Riparia Fire has been burning for several days, but winds have expanded it, turning it into a large fire at over 5,600 acres burned. The fire is located along WA-127 new the Central Ferry State Park.  Likely human caused. Total fires statewide increased from 11 to 23.  That accelerated quickly...) Total: 23

Oregon - 6 (Six new fires in OR today. There are three large fires in the state; the Miller Road Fire, Cedar Creek Fire, and Windigo Fire. Roughly 6-10 fires have been put out in the past 24hrs. The total amount of fires has dropped from 32 to 31.) Total: 31

Idaho - 0 (No new fires in the state for the third straight day. Two major fires still exist, the Moose Fire and Woodtick Fire in remote locations within the Bitterroot Range. The total number of fires remains at 3. ) Total: 3

British Columbia - 12 (Twelve new fires in the province. There are now eight large wildfires in BC. Some good progress in putting out fires in the past 24hrs. The total amount of fires in the province increases from 61 to 55.) Total: 55

SMOKE UPDATE

Smoke is floating aloft over most of Oregon and eastern Washington.  It may drift into Western Washington with no air quality impacts.  Offshore air has taken the smoke from the east and moved it towards the west.  Jackson County OR and Klamath County OR are back under poor air advisories. Moderate to unhealthy air quality is currently over Cave Junction, Medford, Ashland, and Grants Pass.  

Seattle metro, Portland metro, and Spokane metro currently have clean air.  Vancouver metro is clean with some moderate stations to the east by Chilliwack and north in North Vancouver.

As the offshore flow shifts to onshore on Tuesday, expect smoke to once again move eastward. 

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32 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

104* Lake Havasu as well!  Water temp 87* , felt like a bathtub!!!

Decided to drop down a bit out of the monsoonal flow to see what this party lake was all about.  Pretty sure this is not my thing but looking forward to the sunset walk around the London Bridge 

7D24FEF2-0528-48D3-B66B-2CCE627A0B78.png

Is there any water left in that lake?  

Lake Sammamish is around 78-80 now... 87 seems a bit too warm!     Pretty crazy that a lake in western WA is only about 7 degrees cooler than a lake in the middle of the desert.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Uh oh... it happened.  A podium position for Sea-Tac.

Screen Shot 2022-08-08 at 6.57.30 PM.png

10 is wimpy... North Bend is at 13 now out here in the middle of the forested foothills.    No runways to be found! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Shelton went from 91 at 4pm to 70 at 7pm. Not too shabby. 

Wow... did not realize it was coming in the fast.   I see the low clouds advancing inland now as well.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Shelton went from 91 at 4pm to 70 at 7pm. Not too shabby. 

Nice!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Interestingly the ECMWF shows the warmest temps tomorrow from Shelton to Olympia and down through Chehalis with highs into the upper 80s there... so this is not the real marine push yet.   That comes Wednesday morning.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-0089600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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25 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Uh oh... it happened.  A podium position for Sea-Tac.

Screen Shot 2022-08-08 at 6.57.30 PM.png

Today was day 9 for highs here above 80F. Here's a comparison for the last decade or so (I don't have data from 2019 or 2020 because I was having summer issues with my station). We'd have to have a big August/Sept to give 2015 a run for its money, but the other years may still be in play.

2011: 1
2012: 2
2013: 2
2014: 14
2015: 19
2016: 9
2017: 14
2018: 16
2021: 15
2022: 9

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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  • Longtimer

101 with the sun just dropping below the hills. 

D41E319D-0B9A-4334-80E6-ED0549B20997.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Today was day 9 for highs here above 80F. Here's a comparison for the last decade or so (I don't have data from 2019 or 2020 because I was having summer issues with my station). We'd have to have a big August/Sept to give 2015 a run for its money, but the other years may still be in play.

2011: 1
2012: 2
2013: 2
2014: 14
2015: 19
2016: 9
2017: 14
2018: 16
2021: 15
2022: 9

We had 40 +80s here in 2015…35 last summer. Today was #18 so we would have to rack up a lot in the next few weeks to get close to those numbers. We’ve had more +90 highs than 2015 or 2021 though. 5 both of those years and 7 this year. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We had 40 +80s here in 2015…35 last summer. Today was #18 so we would have to rack up a lot in the next few weeks to get close to those numbers. We’ve had more +90 highs than 2015 or 2021 though. 5 both of those years and 7 this year. 

Looks like tomorrow will be #30 at 80+ in North Bend.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Looks like tomorrow will be #30 at 80+ in North Bend.

We will probably finish this summer close to 30 here if I had to guess. Definitely more than usual (would have to look at the averages when I get home tonight) but it’s 23 I think in a typical year. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We had 40 +80s here in 2015…35 last summer. Today was #18 so we would have to rack up a lot in the next few weeks to get close to those numbers. We’ve had more +90 highs than 2015 or 2021 though. 5 both of those years and 7 this year. 

In Portland 2021 tied for the most 100 degree days in a summer, and had the most 80 and 85+ days. This year not nearly as many 80, 85 and 90 days but almost as many 100 degree days so far.

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

In Portland 2021 tied for the most 100 degree days in a summer, and had the most 80 and 85+ days. This year not nearly as many 80, 85 and 90 days but almost as many 100 degree days so far.

Yeah this summers had less “warm”days overall so far but just as many if not more depending on where you are at “hot” days as last year

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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1 minute ago, T-Town said:

64 at Shelton now. Still 81 at Tacoma Narrows but the cool SW breeze is obvious here. 

75 here on the island and 82 in Tacoma. N/S gradient is strong today. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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  • Longtimer

Down to 97 at 8pm. It’s over. Already have my jeans and sweatshirt back on. 
Brrrrrrr

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We had 40 +80s here in 2015…35 last summer. Today was #18 so we would have to rack up a lot in the next few weeks to get close to those numbers. We’ve had more +90 highs than 2015 or 2021 though. 5 both of those years and 7 this year. 

I don't get enough days over 90F to even have statistics. Last year was the first year I think I ever recorded more than one in a year, although that may have happened in 2009 as well.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I don't get enough days over 90F to even have statistics. Last year was the first year I think I ever recorded more than one in a year, although that may have happened in 2009 as well.

We’ve hit 90 atleast once every single year since 2011 here. Didn’t have any in 2005,2008 and 2011 IIRC. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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5 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

High clouds and lowering heights with the approaching cutoff low are definitely impacting things today. As evidenced by how much warmer it is up north.

I was surprised with the amount of high clouds today. PDX was suppose to get to 95 and only managed 88. Not sure what the forecast was for Kelso but they only got to 80. Maybe that's a good sign for the next few days.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I was surprised with the amount of high clouds today. PDX was suppose to get to 95 and only managed 88. Not sure what the forecast was for Kelso but they only got to 80. Maybe that's a good sign for the next few days.

The maritime air is definitely taking hold a bit, as shown by the coastal gap temps in Corvallis, Kelso, and Shelton. Tomorrow will likely be another underachiever.

Not a good sign for the odds of any sort of surface based convection developing of course, but all indications are that the ULL should still provide enough mid level instability for some elevated pop up activity with its closest approach.

Edited by BLI snowman
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13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The maritime air is definitely taking hold a bit, as shown by the coastal gap temps in Corvallis, Kelso, and Shelton. Tomorrow will likely be another underachiever.

Not a good sign for the odds of any sort of surface based convection developing of course, but all indications are that the ULL should still provide enough mid level instability for some elevated pop up activity with its closest approach.

Are our chances for thunderstorms looking better or worse than a few days ago? I'm not an expert at all and I've not really been able to notice any trends but I was curious if something has changed since then.

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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9 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Are our chances for thunderstorms looking better or worse than a few days ago? I'm not an expert at all and I've not really been able to notice any trends but I was curious if something has changed since then.

About the same. Best bet is gonna be tomorrow night as the lift and forcing peaks. Better stuff will be maximized over the hills as usual but the valleys should have a good shot at some pop-ups.

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