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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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Upper level overcast and haze,  I assume some must be smoke.  I hope it stays up high, may actually keep the temp down a degree or two.  I remember some days last August/Sept that were forecast to be in the 100s and Smoke kept the temps in the upper 80s/low 90s

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Euro puts a bit of a dent in this weekend's narrative.

I’ve pointed out that there’s lots of ensemble spread. I definitely don’t want it to get really hot again but you can’t blame people for acknowledging  the possibility.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, RentonHillTC said:

surface temps look very similar even with the better trough. PDX still 95, puget sound is a bit warmer for sunday. 

95 is cooler than anything we saw in the last seven days.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

surface temps look very similar even with the better trough. PDX still 95, puget sound is a bit warmer for sunday. 

image.thumb.png.565e886a92e84d4d9bd5854b7962722a.png

You’re putting a dent in his narrative 

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, RentonHillTC said:

hmmmm can someone check this guys math?  Thought we were talking about the upcoming weekend narrative

The narrative is for another trip to 100 and beyond.

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Next Monday says hi.

Totally confounding how everyone is anticipating more heat tho.

Gotta work on that AK vortex machine.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

There are considerable differences between the two.

image.png

image.png

And somehow the net result at the surface is more or less the same. We still get another heatwave.

Until that ULL offshore either phases with the jet and progresses inland or retrogrades out toward Kona to the point that it’s out of our way entirely, the models are going to have fits about it. But in the end heat will likely triumph since it’s the roided up 4CH that’s driving the general pattern in the first place. Other features like the offshore ULL and the cyclogenesis up toward Alaska are merely bending to its pattern forcing will.

Edited by Cascadia_Wx
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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Matt already jinxed the sh*t out of us last month but I guess that wasn’t enough 

Worked like a charm!🥰

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Well the euro doesn’t like the idea of us getting into the 90s next Sunday on this run. Couple mid 80s sprinkled in but not bad up here.  Looks like some troughing even returns late in the run with some precip chances. Atleast we should get some rain this week too. 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

And somehow the net result at the surface is more or less the same. We still get another heatwave.

Until that ULL offshore either phases with the jet and progresses inland or retrogrades out toward Kona to the point that it’s out of our way entirely, the models are going to have fits about it. But in the end heat will likely triumph since it’s the roided up 4CH that’s driving the general pattern in the first place. Other features like the offshore ULL and the cyclogenesis up toward Alaska are merely bending to its pattern forcing will.

 

 

The ULL isn’t a factor when looking at the upcoming long wave pattern which is fairly progressive for the dead balls middle of the dog days.

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I spent the weekend camping up in BC and boy was it lovely. Maybe one or two moments it felt hot, but otherwise temps were quite pleasant and there was usually a really nice breeze. Nights were in the mid 50s, even at 5,000'. As we were headed up on Friday there was a decent amount of haze/smoke in Vancouver, but once above a couple thousand feet it completely disappeared.

Here at home the weekend looks to have been warmer than expected. Temps from last week:

Monday: 77/54
Tuesday: 88/60
Wednesday: 81/61
Thursday: 82/58
Friday: 86/56
Saturday: 86/56
Sunday: 88/56

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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Just now, Deweydog said:

The ULL isn’t a factor when looking at the upcoming long wave pattern which is fairly progressive for the dead balls middle of the dog days.

It looks to be a big factor for sensible weather here. Its presence is keeping us from reaping any of the benefits ( or summer destroying drawbacks depending on who you ask 😞) of said pattern. When the models were in love with the idea of quickly phasing the ULL this week they looked quite cool for us.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Top notch trolling as usual. Now be sure to ignore the actual attempt at pattern analysis!

I already told you, that was an honest call. After initially going back in May for a July “peak” to summer (mainly based on dewness) I got all drunk on 2011-esque delusions of grandeur. Things turned out to break good, and then got full-on stupid.

In full Phil style, I will say that if things had turned out differently last month could have turned out MUCH cooler.

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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The ULL isn’t a factor when looking at the upcoming long wave pattern which is fairly progressive for the dead balls middle of the dog days.

Is this another way of saying it is a "downstream" effect of the long wave pattern? Or more of an artifact etc? Sorry still learning over here

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7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It looks to be a big factor for sensible weather here. Its presence is keeping us from reaping any of the benefits ( or summer destroying drawbacks depending on who you ask 😞) of said pattern. When the models were in love with the idea of quickly phasing the ULL this week they looked quite cool for us.

I’d argue it exists because the jet/surf zone has lifted so far to the north right now. Almost like an extremely displaced Kona low, if forms basically the same way.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It looks to be a big factor for sensible weather here. Its presence is keeping us from reaping any of the benefits ( or summer destroying drawbacks depending on who you ask 😞) of said pattern. When the models were in love with the idea of quickly phasing the ULL this week they looked quite cool for us.

Maybe on very temporary basis. Would have certainly been a quicker descent from the heatwave which would have been nice. At this point it’s there entirely at the discretion of the strength of the long wave pattern. Like you said, the broad 4CH is driving that warm anomaly boat.

Edited by Deweydog
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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Maybe on very temporary basis. Would have certainly been a quicker descent from the heatwave which would have been. At this point it’s there entirely at the discretion of the strength of the long wave pattern. Like you said, the broad 4CH is driving that warm anomaly boat.

It seems to my untrained mind that the ULL getting trapped is very much an artifact of the unusually strong 4CH. Even though there is a relatively strong ridge out in the GOA its descending arm just isn’t beefy enough to crush it into submission. So the energy takes the path of least resistance and splits. A shortwave trough quickly skirts BC while the ULL spins endlessly offshore. Best way for the pattern to let off some steam without actually disrupting the SW heat dome.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Is this another way of saying it is a "downstream" effect of the long wave pattern? Or more of an artifact etc? Sorry still learning over here

They just spin up very easily this time of year. Our broad midsummer heat patterns more often than not involve some kind of cyclonic action to the west that ultimately cuts off. This one is just kind trapped between the strong retrograding ridge and the 4CH which is waning with the pattern change but not budging enough to eject the spinner. 

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’d argue it exists because the jet/surf zone has lifted so far to the north right now. Almost like an extremely displaced Kona low, if forms basically the same way.

 

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It seems to my untrained mind that the ULL getting trapped is very much an artifact of the unusually strong 4CH. Even though there is a relatively strong ridge out in the GOA its descending arm just isn’t beefy enough to crush it into submission. So the energy takes the path of least resistance and splits. A shortwave trough quickly skirts BC while the ULL spins endlessly offshore. Best way for the pattern to let off some steam without actually disrupting the SW heat dome.

 

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

They just spin up very easily this time of year. Our broad midsummer heat patterns more often than not involve some kind of cyclonic action to the west that ultimately cuts off. This one is just kind trapped between the strong retrograding ridge and the 4CH which is waning with the pattern change but not budging enough to eject the spinner. 

This is the good stuff. Thanks, fellas!

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

It seems to my untrained mind that the ULL getting trapped is very much an artifact of the unusually strong 4CH. Even though there is a relatively strong ridge out in the GOA its descending arm just isn’t beefy enough to crush it into submission. So the energy takes the path of least resistance and splits. A shortwave trough quickly skirts BC while the ULL spins endlessly offshore. Best way for the pattern to let off some steam without actually disrupting the SW heat dome.

Definitely. The temporarily-waning of the 4CH isn’t waning enough. Keeps the long wave pattern displaced to the north  despite what are at least temporarily some favorable teleconnections.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Boy COVID and his absolutely enormous sunflowers he planted this spring. I guess they liked the heat. Ignore the atrocious lawn. When @Deweydog said PDX wouldn’t get above 90 in July I spent a bunch of time effort and money on seeding the new area instead of waiting until the fall. It…didn’t quite work. 😜

38021E6F-E6F2-4CBA-8CEB-4AF13F4A643E.jpeg

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13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Definitely. The temporarily-waning of the 4CH isn’t waning enough. Keeps the long wave pattern displaced to the north  despite what are at least temporarily some favorable teleconnections.

You can weenie react this until your hearts content but it burns a little extra when we waste one of our few teleconnective windows for troughing and cooler weather in the mid summer this way.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Boy COVID and his absolutely enormous sunflowers he planted this spring. I guess they liked the heat. Ignore the atrocious lawn. When @Deweydog said PDX wouldn’t get above 90 in July I spent a bunch of time effort and money on seeding the new area instead of waiting until the fall. It…didn’t quite work. 😜

38021E6F-E6F2-4CBA-8CEB-4AF13F4A643E.jpeg

You named your son COVID. WOW

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Definitely. The temporarily-waning of the 4CH isn’t waning enough. Keeps the long wave pattern displaced to the north  despite what are at least temporarily some favorable teleconnections.

The 4CH has established itself so firmly this summer that I don't really see any way that it doesn't continue to be the primary driver for us for at least the next 3-4 weeks.

Only when summer wavelength season really dies after Labor Day and the weak westerlies begin to emerge at our latitude will we start to see legitimate fronts and impulses suppress the 4CH influence far enough to the south and east. Until then I expect it to continue to bud back up after 2-3 days as there just isn't enough forcing from the Pacific to keep it in check for much longer than that 

"Despair casting" aside, another solidly warmer than average month looks like it's essentially a lock. 

Edited by BLI snowman
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That said it would be nice if we could have more discussion like this. I will often have a lot of thoughts about the pattern floating around in my head but refrain from posting about it since a) it seems like no one will care and b) in many ways it’s more easy  and familiar to just revert to the old surly a**hole persona I have gotten so comfortable with here over the years 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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