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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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Interestingly the ECMWF shows the warmest temps tomorrow from Shelton to Olympia and down through Chehalis with highs into the upper 80s there... so this is not the real marine push yet.   That comes Wednesday morning.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-0089600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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25 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Uh oh... it happened.  A podium position for Sea-Tac.

Screen Shot 2022-08-08 at 6.57.30 PM.png

Today was day 9 for highs here above 80F. Here's a comparison for the last decade or so (I don't have data from 2019 or 2020 because I was having summer issues with my station). We'd have to have a big August/Sept to give 2015 a run for its money, but the other years may still be in play.

2011: 1
2012: 2
2013: 2
2014: 14
2015: 19
2016: 9
2017: 14
2018: 16
2021: 15
2022: 9

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Today was day 9 for highs here above 80F. Here's a comparison for the last decade or so (I don't have data from 2019 or 2020 because I was having summer issues with my station). We'd have to have a big August/Sept to give 2015 a run for its money, but the other years may still be in play.

2011: 1
2012: 2
2013: 2
2014: 14
2015: 19
2016: 9
2017: 14
2018: 16
2021: 15
2022: 9

We had 40 +80s here in 2015…35 last summer. Today was #18 so we would have to rack up a lot in the next few weeks to get close to those numbers. We’ve had more +90 highs than 2015 or 2021 though. 5 both of those years and 7 this year. 

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We had 40 +80s here in 2015…35 last summer. Today was #18 so we would have to rack up a lot in the next few weeks to get close to those numbers. We’ve had more +90 highs than 2015 or 2021 though. 5 both of those years and 7 this year. 

Looks like tomorrow will be #30 at 80+ in North Bend.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We had 40 +80s here in 2015…35 last summer. Today was #18 so we would have to rack up a lot in the next few weeks to get close to those numbers. We’ve had more +90 highs than 2015 or 2021 though. 5 both of those years and 7 this year. 

In Portland 2021 tied for the most 100 degree days in a summer, and had the most 80 and 85+ days. This year not nearly as many 80, 85 and 90 days but almost as many 100 degree days so far.

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

In Portland 2021 tied for the most 100 degree days in a summer, and had the most 80 and 85+ days. This year not nearly as many 80, 85 and 90 days but almost as many 100 degree days so far.

Yeah this summers had less “warm”days overall so far but just as many if not more depending on where you are at “hot” days as last year

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We had 40 +80s here in 2015…35 last summer. Today was #18 so we would have to rack up a lot in the next few weeks to get close to those numbers. We’ve had more +90 highs than 2015 or 2021 though. 5 both of those years and 7 this year. 

I don't get enough days over 90F to even have statistics. Last year was the first year I think I ever recorded more than one in a year, although that may have happened in 2009 as well.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I don't get enough days over 90F to even have statistics. Last year was the first year I think I ever recorded more than one in a year, although that may have happened in 2009 as well.

We’ve hit 90 atleast once every single year since 2011 here. Didn’t have any in 2005,2008 and 2011 IIRC. 

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5 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

High clouds and lowering heights with the approaching cutoff low are definitely impacting things today. As evidenced by how much warmer it is up north.

I was surprised with the amount of high clouds today. PDX was suppose to get to 95 and only managed 88. Not sure what the forecast was for Kelso but they only got to 80. Maybe that's a good sign for the next few days.

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12 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I was surprised with the amount of high clouds today. PDX was suppose to get to 95 and only managed 88. Not sure what the forecast was for Kelso but they only got to 80. Maybe that's a good sign for the next few days.

The maritime air is definitely taking hold a bit, as shown by the coastal gap temps in Corvallis, Kelso, and Shelton. Tomorrow will likely be another underachiever.

Not a good sign for the odds of any sort of surface based convection developing of course, but all indications are that the ULL should still provide enough mid level instability for some elevated pop up activity with its closest approach.

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13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The maritime air is definitely taking hold a bit, as shown by the coastal gap temps in Corvallis, Kelso, and Shelton. Tomorrow will likely be another underachiever.

Not a good sign for the odds of any sort of surface based convection developing of course, but all indications are that the ULL should still provide enough mid level instability for some elevated pop up activity with its closest approach.

Are our chances for thunderstorms looking better or worse than a few days ago? I'm not an expert at all and I've not really been able to notice any trends but I was curious if something has changed since then.

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9 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Are our chances for thunderstorms looking better or worse than a few days ago? I'm not an expert at all and I've not really been able to notice any trends but I was curious if something has changed since then.

About the same. Best bet is gonna be tomorrow night as the lift and forcing peaks. Better stuff will be maximized over the hills as usual but the valleys should have a good shot at some pop-ups.

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

About the same. Best bet is gonna be tomorrow night as the lift and forcing peaks. Better stuff will be maximized over the hills as usual but the valleys should have a good shot at some pop-ups.

I imagine there will be some elevated training at some point between 10pm and 6am tomorrow night/Wednesday morning. Great setup overall, but it’d be better if there was a little more of a focused trigger. Gonna be a fairly deep, stable layer.

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1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

Are our chances for thunderstorms looking better or worse than a few days ago? I'm not an expert at all and I've not really been able to notice any trends but I was curious if something has changed since then.

The RGEM is a good mesoscale model for convection but it's backed off some compared to a couple days ago. 

qpf_acc.us_nw-4.thumb.png.8a6318976dcea78de6befe9668b72b95.png

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