August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[Doinko]

Just now, Dave said:

I know I don't speak for TWL, but I absolutely love thunderstorms. To get large hail and lightning galore, well to me it's just as nice as a 6" snowstorm and three days of subfreezing temperatures. I'm pretty happy. I also remeasured the hail and it was about 1.4". Pretty sweet. 

1.4"!!!

[Dave]

7 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

1.4"!!!

It's mostly what you do with it.

[TacomaWx]

Hmmm we will see what happens tomorrow but the euro looks even further west than the previous run. Would make sense based on where the bulk of the activity is right now. There’s likely still gonna be some surprises in store though. Wasn’t totally accurate tonight. Maybe some pop up storms closer to I-5 or maybe it’s just too far west altogether. 

[Requiem]

Definitely think there's gonna be quite the lightshow for folks on the westside looking towards the coast range 

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Hmmm we will see what happens tomorrow but the euro looks even further west than the previous run. Would make sense based on where the bulk of the activity is right now. There’s likely still gonna be some surprises in store though. Wasn’t totally accurate tonight. Maybe some pop up storms closer to I-5 or maybe it’s just too far west altogether. 

Euro was kind of a buzz kill for most. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Walk it off Mariners!

[snow_wizard]

Not looking good for lightning tonight...at least in the Seattle area.  The latest sat loop is less than impressive.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Euro was kind of a buzz kill for most. 

Yeah we will see…euro didn’t even pick up on the whole I-5 corridor from Salem to Eugene getting a pretty significant round of storms so there’s definitely still a legit chance for some storms up north in WA/BC still. 

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Not looking good for lightning tonight...at least in the Seattle area.  The latest sat loop is less than impressive.

The storms around Eugene and Salem just suddenly popped up and even here in Portland I saw a few flashes of lightning around McMinnville, so I hope something like that happens around the Sound

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Doiinko said:

The storms around Eugene and Salem just suddenly popped up and even here in Portland I saw a few flashes of lightning around McMinnville, so I hope something like that happens around the Sound

Im not counting on it at this point but I’ll definitely check in a few times tonight to see if anything pops up. 

[Dave]

Here's another hail pic from someone a few miles away. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Dave said:

Here's another hail pic from someone a few miles away. 

Looks like aggregate hail (composed of smaller hailstones cemented together). That is actually quite common for larger hail.

[snow_wizard]

Right now it appears the final half of the month is going to suck balls.  At least one blast of heat and maybe two.  At least the longer nights and lower sun angles make it so a shorter part of the day is hot, and it doesn't get quite so hot inside.

This just doesn't make sense given the multi year La Nina, but it's happening.  A major crash in the fall (much more pronounced than normal) still seems like a good bet though.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Im not counting on it at this point but I’ll definitely check in a few times tonight to see if anything pops up. 

I’m heading off to bed. It’s gonna probably take until tomorrow morning for it to get here… if, that is, it does get here. And if I’m wrong, the thunder will provide its own wake-up call.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

The storms around Eugene and Salem just suddenly popped up and even here in Portland I saw a few flashes of lightning around McMinnville, so I hope something like that happens around the Sound

It's always possible, but I'm seeing more dissipation on the sat pic than anything.

[The Blob]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Right now it appears the final half of the month is going to suck balls.  At least one blast of heat and maybe two.  At least the longer nights and lower sun angles make it so a shorter part of the day is hot, and it doesn't get quite so hot inside.

This just doesn't make sense given the multi year La Nina, but it's happening.  A major crash in the fall (much more pronounced than normal) still seems like a good bet though.

Might be why..

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Might be why..

I'm not convinced at all.  Krakatoa had a very large steam component to its eruption, and it caused massive global cooling.  In general volcanoes cause cooling and not warming.

An altering of the wave train is certainly possible though.  The good news is we have an elevated chance of abnormal patterns this winter.  That of course could mean something special for us.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not convinced at all.  Krakatoa had a very large steam component to its eruption, and it caused massive global cooling.  In general volcanoes cause cooling and not warming.

Didn't Krakatoa eject more tephra than Tongva?

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not convinced at all.  Krakatoa had a very large steam component to its eruption, and it caused massive global cooling.  In general volcanoes cause cooling and not warming.

Volcanoes don't cause cooling, sulphide-based tephra does. Tonga was an interesting one on the other hand, with much more water vapor. "Volcanoes cause cooling" doesn't exactly work with this example.

[snow_wizard]

I'm going 20% chance for the Seattle area to see some lightning tonight.  Maybe a bit higher if you count distant lightning as legit.  As I said the sat pics look even more disappointing than the models right now.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Didn't Krakatoa eject more tephra than Tongva?

It had both tephra and steam.  I think people are just guessing about the end results of the recent eruption of Tonga.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Volcanoes don't cause cooling, sulphide-based tephra does. Tonga was an interesting one on the other hand, with much more water vapor. "Volcanoes cause cooling" doesn't exactly work with this example.

I'm sure it had plenty of sulphides as well.  As I mentioned Krakatoa had a lot of steam.  The steam didn't offset the cooling effects.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm sure it had plenty of sulphides as well.  As I mentioned Krakatoa had a lot of steam.  The steam didn't offset the cooling effects.

I understand, but the proportions aren't very comparable. Krakatoa was a bona fide tropical island made of several cubic kilometers of rock, Tonga was basically a giant steam schute made of sand. Tonga's eruption was so water laden and intense, it earned itself its own designated eruption type. I'm not saying there was no tephra ejected, or even that there will even be any H2O-related warming, but simply that we have no idea what the atmospheric reaction will be from this eruption. Tonga was simply too unique.

[ShawniganLake]

27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Right now it appears the final half of the month is going to suck balls.  At least one blast of heat and maybe two.  At least the longer nights and lower sun angles make it so a shorter part of the day is hot, and it doesn't get quite so hot inside.

This just doesn't make sense given the multi year La Nina, but it's happening.  A major crash in the fall (much more pronounced than normal) still seems like a good bet though.

Summer climate in the PNW stopped caring about ENSO state about a decade ago

[Doinko]

...and the Portland radar is down

[Frontal Snowsquall]

47 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Right now it appears the final half of the month is going to suck balls.  At least one blast of heat and maybe two.  At least the longer nights and lower sun angles make it so a shorter part of the day is hot, and it doesn't get quite so hot inside.

This just doesn't make sense given the multi year La Nina, but it's happening.  A major crash in the fall (much more pronounced than normal) still seems like a good bet though.

00z EURO shows mid 90s for PDX next Tue/Wed then low 100s on Thu/Fri. I think this will be the last heatwave of the summer. I agree with you of a major crash into fall sometime in September though.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Coast getting hammered right now. The flow seems to be NW at the moment so the thunderstorms should move back out over the Pacific Ocean.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

...and the Portland radar is down

Back online!

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

30 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Coast getting hammered right now. The flow seems to be NW at the moment so the thunderstorms should move back out over the Pacific Ocean.

Yeah, moving out over the Pacific now but Tillamook Bay getting nailed still. Must be wild at Barview Jetty right now.

[Dave]

4 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

If you have any extra change, quarters measure 1" and half dollars exactly 1.25"

Same dirty plate. I tried to move it to a clean plate but the melting and refreezing fused it to the plate.  

 

[Timmy Supercell]

2 hours ago, Dave said:

Same dirty plate. I tried to move it to a clean plate but the melting and refreezing fused it to the plate.  

 

It's official! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Bustola here. Not even much in the way of rain or very distant lightning. Everything stayed to the south and west. That’s the problem when a massive dome of heat to your east keeps any sort of energy from progressing inland for weeks at a time.

[Cascadia_Wx]

It should be interesting to see how many new fire starts there are in areas that did get lightning. The next big heatwave/offshore flow event will be a good testing ground.

[snow_wizard]

Almost all of the thunderstorm activity ended up offshore in WA.  Kind of a waste, but at least it's good news for fires.

[TT-SEA]

Can't tell much of a difference at the 500mb level... but the models insist that the Seattle area stays socked in today and then show wall-to-wall sun and temps back into the 80s tomorrow.    Today and tomorrow look almost identical on the 500mb maps.

[TT-SEA]

SEA was 64 at 1 p.m. yesterday... had a high of 76 through 5 p.m... and ended up with a high of 79 on the day.    Pretty rare to pick up 3 degrees on the high after 5 p.m.   

Today will probably struggle to reach 70 late in the day with very little sun.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Bustola here. Not even much in the way of rain or very distant lightning. Everything stayed to the south and west. That’s the problem when a massive dome of heat to your east keeps any sort of energy from progressing inland for weeks at a time.

I guess I was fortunate to get the one flash/rumble and .02" of rain here from a split second downpour. At least this month won't be a total shutout now.

[TT-SEA]

Some new development east of Longview heading NW towards Olympia and maybe Tacoma now.

[RentonHill]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some new development east of Longview heading NW towards Olympia and maybe Tacoma now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Don't know if it was mentioned, but the latest weekly ENSO reading was down to -1.0C in the 3.4 region. Phil can weigh in on whether this round of cooling has peaked or if there may be more to go. 

As for the ENSO effects on summer. I don't know that there has been much if any impact on summer over the past decade. Some people say 2016 was not a rough summer, but at least down here we had some ridiculous heatwaves in June and August, just July was fairly normal. Also 2017 was very hot and that was during a two year -ENSO event. Probably the most benign summers we have had in the past decade were 2019 and 2020 and those were during a multiyear +ENSO event, though I suppose we were going into a Nina by late 2020.