August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

It snowed February 6-7 2014, but lower amounts than my school friends in Beaverton got. lol

I think it was a situation where the west metro had more than the east metro because of the dry east wind. I don't remember exactly how much I had but I think it was around 9" total from the three storms.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ICON and 00Z GEM both look troughy in a week... a change from their 12Z runs.  

[snow_wizard]

For now it appears the models are moving away from anything too crazy in the heat department.  Looks like a strong marine push late next week which should keep things in check.

On another note...not sure what to make of the Atlantic.  It is beyond dead in what should be the peak time for activity.  Very strange behavior all around for a Nina.  Especially weird given the MJO has been Ninaish for the most part.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

When it's below 80, you almost can't really notice the muggy air, well maybe once you get used to the area. 

Most of the Spring season was really nice and I can finally say we have all 4 seasons out here. I can't wait to see what Fall is like.

Even here we have had a definite summer this year.  No doubt we will have a definite fall.  Winter...we will have to wait and see.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

I think it was a situation where the west metro had more than the east metro because of the dry east wind. I don't remember exactly how much I had but I think it was around 9" total from the three storms.

The setup in Feb 2014 was a classic for NW OR.  A steady feed of moisture off the Pacific undercutting a nice dome of Arctic air.  I was jelly of you guys on that one!

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

up to Tennis Ball hail just south of here a couple hours ago

 

golf ball hail about 1 mile from here

 

Nuts, all we got (thankfully) was 60mph outflow gusts, not even any rain

 

 

I've never heard of hail that large anywhere in the NW before.  Crazy!

[Requiem]

1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

I think it was a situation where the west metro had more than the east metro because of the dry east wind. I don't remember exactly how much I had but I think it was around 9" total from the three storms.

That was a wonderful event. I think we had around a foot of snow from those storms combined-- I believe the third storm also brought a mess of ice and sleet.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

That was a wonderful event. I think we had around a foot of snow from those storms combined-- I believe the third storm also brought a mess of ice and sleet.

Not sure if the wind in my area dried things out since we get downsloping wind off of the West Hills but it made for some heavy blowing snow on 2/6/14 which was fun.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty interesting list of analogs showing up on the CPC site including a lot of Ninas.  A lot of years that featured spectacular crashes in the autumn.

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The setup in Feb 2014 was a classic for NW OR.  A steady feed of moisture off the Pacific undercutting a nice dome of Arctic air.  I was jelly of you guys on that one!

The accumulations in the central/south valley were crazy too! And the near-blizzard conditions on 2/6 with around 9" total from the three events. For the Portland metro 1/10/17 was better in my area at least, 13" of snow all in one night!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

63F and very pretty in the moonlight out there.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

55 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For now it appears the models are moving away from anything too crazy in the heat department.  Looks like a strong marine push late next week which should keep things in check.

Nice to see the rug get pulled on a big heat wave for once.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

For now it appears the models are moving away from anything too crazy in the heat department.  Looks like a strong marine push late next week which should keep things in check.

On another note...not sure what to make of the Atlantic.  It is beyond dead in what should be the peak time for activity.  Very strange behavior all around for a Nina.  Especially weird given the MJO has been Ninaish for the most part.

 

43 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Nice to see the rug get pulled on a big heat wave for once.

The 00z EURO says what heatwave?

For PDX, next Tue-Thu it shows 91/94/88 then big crash into the low 70s on Friday with some moisture arriving, mostly into BC/Washington though. 

[snow_wizard]

Liking the trend of the ECMWF.  Nice cool trough late next week / next weekend.

[snow_wizard]

Let's hope we build on this!

[Cascadia_Wx]

00z EPS looking very warm well into the long range. A mean of +20C at 850mb

[Cascadia_Wx]

If August ended today it would beat the warmest month on record (July 1985) by half a degree at PDX. And the warmest August on record (2017) by a full degree. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

06z GEFS is similar to the EPS in basically showing no appreciable cool down at all moving into the long range 

[Phil]

9 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

Why’d you move to such a place?? Certainly other reputable universities would have accepted someone with your background

Because I effed around and dropped out of high school, and had to take the scenic route back through community college, which made UMD the most viable (and cheapest) route.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Because I effed around and dropped out of high school, and had to take the scenic route back through community college, which made UMD the most viable (and cheapest) route.

Sounds like you’re still effing around. Why did you f*ck the pattern for this summer up so bad?

[Phil]

6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty interesting list of analogs showing up on the CPC site including a lot of Ninas.  A lot of years that featured spectacular crashes in the autumn.

A big flip in the autumn wouldn’t surprise me at all. A cluster of EPS members have a flip as early as September. 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Sounds like you’re still effing around. Why did you f*ck the pattern for this summer up so bad?

I think it’s nature that’s effing around more than me. Second year in a row where the summer pattern got derailed by an intraseasonal event at the end of spring.

If there’s any good news it’s that the streak of warm/dull Mays came to an end, and that was a tough nut to crack for the last decade. So the same probably can/will happen for other months eventually.

Part of me wonders if an east-based +ENSO/narrow Hadley Cell is the best conduit to a cool summer in the PNW now.

[Cascadia_Wx]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think it’s nature that’s effing around more than me. Second year in a row where the summer pattern got derailed by an intraseasonal event at the end of spring.

If there’s any good news it’s that the streak of warm/dull Mays came to an end, and that was a tough nut to crack for the last decade. So the same probably can/will happen for other months eventually.

Part of me wonders if an east-based +ENSO/narrow Hadley Cell is the best conduit to a cool summer in the PNW now.

Appreciate the level headed reply to my trolling. This summer threw just about everyone for a loop I think. I wouldn’t have been too terribly surprised if it had ended up a little on the warm side. But I never imagined it would end up one of our warmest, if not THE warmest, on record.

[Phil]

11 hours ago, Phil said:

DC might drop below 70°F for the first time since July 11th tonight. Has only happened 3 times since June 29th.

Update: Fail.  

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KDCA&hours=72

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Appreciate the level headed reply to my trolling. This summer threw just about everyone for a loop I think. I wouldn’t have been too terribly surprised if it had ended up a little on the warm side. But I never imagined it would end up one of our warmest, if not THE warmest, on record.

It’s no problem brother. I get it.

Considering the crappy pattern, you’ve held it together better than I would have if the roles were reversed.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty morning with some instability type clouds...

[Phil]

OT but I find it fascinating how similar the national summer convective pattern has been to 2021. The 2nd summer in a row where that monster western ridge/4CH has driven countless shortwave troughs/severe storms right into Appalachia. And the timing has been perfect, right at peak heating each time.

All of the LWX airports have had multiple storms meet severe criteria this summer and many more come within a razors edge of it.

Severe warnings by WFO since 6/1. Nuts!

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Part of me wonders if an east-based +ENSO/narrow Hadley Cell is the best conduit to a cool summer in the PNW now.

Can you imagine a world where I am cheering for Ninas and other people are cheering for a Nino?   

Side note... historically a Nina usually means a slower start to fall.    Ironically the only September in the last 15 years to end up colder than the long term average at SEA was in 2015.

[Phil]

This was JJA severe warnings by WFO in 2021.

Never thought I’d see this repeat, let alone the very next year.

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Can you imagine a world where I am cheering for Ninas and other people are cheering for a Nino?   

Side note... historically a Nina usually means a slower start to fall.    Ironically the only September in the last 15 years to end up colder than the long term average at SEA was in 2015.

Would be ironic if the next El Niño ends up delivering the first cool JJA in the PNW since 2012.

And I’d almost certainly call for a hot summer beforehand given the degree of WPAC forcing typically present during El Niño transitions.  It’s usually a direct conduit to a +TNH orgy.

I’m still flummoxed as to how summer 1957 turned out cool with a developing super niño. I think that event may have been much more east based than indicated by reanalysis. 

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

This was JJA severe warnings by WFO in 2021.

Never thought I’d see this repeat, let alone the very next year.

The NE just killed the Plains and Midwest.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

06z GEFS is similar to the EPS in basically showing no appreciable cool down at all moving into the long range 

The ECMWF suite has the brief cool down late next week.  We'll see if it happens or not.  For what it's worth the GEM was similar on the 0z run.

[Doinko]

Lightning strikes from our thunderstorms earlier, I think it ends before that storm hit the Sound though:

[TacomaWx]

Got down to 56 this morning. 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty amazing how the Puget Sound area got almost totally shafted for storms with the ULL sitting in a fairly favorable position for so long.

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Got down to 56 this morning. 

54 here.  The house is very comfortable this morning.  The worse is over for this year with the lower sun angles and longer nights now.

[Timmy Supercell]

10 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Even here we have had a definite summer this year.  No doubt we will have a definite fall.  Winter...we will have to wait and see.

I make more of a distinction between the seasons when my latest snowfall gets earlier. 

March 12th versus May 25th where I lived before (2012). And freezes don't happen in June.

Since this is part of the mid-south region, I bet there isn't a lot of April snowfall recorded. So Spring is actually Spring.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I make more of a distinction between the seasons when my latest snowfall gets earlier. 

March 12th versus May 25th where I lived before (2012). And freezes don't happen in June.

Since this is part of the mid-south region, I bet there isn't a lot of April snowfall recorded. So Spring is actually Spring.

I see what you're saying.  The lines between the seasons can get blurred at higher elevations for sure.

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

OT but I find it fascinating how similar the national summer convective pattern has been to 2021. The 2nd summer in a row where that monster western ridge/4CH has driven countless shortwave troughs/severe storms right into Appalachia. And the timing has been perfect, right at peak heating each time.

All of the LWX airports have had multiple storms meet severe criteria this summer and many more come within a razors edge of it.

Severe warnings by WFO since 6/1. Nuts!

The orientation of the 4CH has been radically different for the west/southwest this year versus last year. Surprised it hasn't made as big of a difference for the Appalachia region. Last year no monsoon for the southwest versus the strongest in 10 years or more this year. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Already severe t'storm warnings in eastern Washington. Stormy August.

Still no hail reports larger than golfball size on Pendleton or Spokane NWS pages. Based on pictures I've seen of vehicle/house damage in the Wallowa area, hail that small can't possibly smash windows, and make your car look like its beaten by a baseball bat.