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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Unless you're talking about lounging around the bank, it's chaise. 🙂

Got me. 🤓

I still remember Dewey’s misspelling of convoluted as convaluded. Pointed it out and he was salty about it for months.

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39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Assuming this is not a case of a raging ECMWF cut off bias... cutting off and retrograding the GOA trough late next week might allow for a trough to move down from the north and cool it down.   Of course it requires a very strange and rather extreme evolution to get there so it might be gone on the 00Z run.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1660737600-1661428800-1661580000-10.gif

The retrograde angle is at least showing up more consistently now on the different models. GFS also has been showing it for the last few days of the month with it seeming to slightly favor an early fall continental front dropping down to our east.

Hopefully we see a decisive enough retrograde of the ridge that allows us to avoid the hot, dry strong offshore flow with a cool airmass over the Rockies scenario.

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A bit of a random question (but also to spark a conversation), anyone have personal experience on how computer science and meteorology can intertwine as a career? I've been thinking about it more, and there has to be people maintaining and updating the GFS and ECMWF supercomputers, right? Those gotta be software engineers/meteorologists, I think.  

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All those moments will be lost in time. . .
like tears in snow.
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14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The retrograde angle is at least showing up more consistently now on the different models. GFS also has been showing it for the last few days of the month with it seeming to slightly favor an early fall continental front dropping down to our east.

Hopefully we see a decisive enough retrograde of the ridge that allows us to avoid the hot, dry strong offshore flow with a cool airmass over the Rockies scenario.

12Z EPS shows basically the same pattern that we have now at the end of the run.  

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-2033600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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51 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Was going to mention tomorrow as having some potential. I guess we’ll see what happens with that area of overcast to our SE this afternoon. 

Looks like it'll at least make our low very warm. KPTV is forecasting a low of 73 in the city, which should be on the top five list for warmest lows.

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SEA is running +11 compared to yesterday... but doubt they end up +11 on the high which would mean 94.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Grass is very brown up here now.   No appreciable rain since July 3rd.    It's much drier than years like 2016 and 2019.   More in line now with 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2021.

20220817_123105.jpg

20220817_124358.jpg

Only Jesse can downvote these posts. So is it really him? lol

I occasionally miss pages worth of comments on here.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Winter

Snowfall - 16.1" (biggest storm 4.8" March 12th)
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"
Snow days: 10
First freeze: Nov 3rd

Other 2022 Stats

Thunders: 52
Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 4
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1
Hailstorms: 1 (1/2" on 10/12)
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

'22-'23 Winter

Snowfall - __.__
First freeze: Oct 9th
 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

NWS forecast:

image.png.559c1cd452fa2512c59e338e8d06ffa1.png

Tonight looks really impressive. 925mb temps of 30c+ over the valley with the possibility of well-timed cloud cover and DP’s creeping up toward the mid 60’s. If this were a month ago PDX would have a good shot at breaking last year’s max/min record. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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It does feel a bit weird to have moved to a warmer climate, and its rather mild where I am for being middle of August.

Sorry to stick you guys with a third straight hot summer in a row.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Winter

Snowfall - 16.1" (biggest storm 4.8" March 12th)
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"
Snow days: 10
First freeze: Nov 3rd

Other 2022 Stats

Thunders: 52
Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 4
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1
Hailstorms: 1 (1/2" on 10/12)
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

'22-'23 Winter

Snowfall - __.__
First freeze: Oct 9th
 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Timmy Supercell said:

It does feel a bit weird to have moved to a warmer climate, and its rather mild where I am for being middle of August.

Sorry to stick you guys with a third straight hot summer in a row.

2020 was not very hot compared to the last two, end of summer firestorm notwithstanding. It was more in line with our record hot summers from 20 years ago.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, Timmy Supercell said:

It does feel a bit weird to have moved to a warmer climate, and its rather mild where I am for being middle of August.

Sorry to stick you guys with a third straight hot summer in a row.

It’s been gorgeous. Thank you. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Can we get one of the mods to add some recommended posts at the top of each page?  Five seems so pedestrian.  How about twelve or thirteen so we can sort through them before getting to the good stuff.  And maybe add some advertisements too?

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

It’s been gorgeous. Thank you. 

Definitely great summers for leaving your air conditioned home office in your central air conditioned house, and driving in a car with AC and cooled seats to an air conditioned In-N-Out burger for dinner. Oh and maybe going to the coast once.

For people who actually go outside of the AC bubble it’s been pretty shitty, though. ;)

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF keeps a very weak ULL wandering around the PNW next week... still sunny and warm but it keeps temps in check.   

Very weak might be generous, but definitely not maximizing the heights under that ridge.

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14 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

It does feel a bit weird to have moved to a warmer climate, and its rather mild where I am for being middle of August.

Sorry to stick you guys with a third straight hot summer in a row.

How's the humidity out there? Have you adjusted to it yet? 

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8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Definitely great summers for leaving your air conditioned home office in your central air conditioned house, and driving in a car with AC and cooled seats to an air conditioned In-N-Out burger for dinner. Oh and maybe going to the coast once.

For people who actually go outside of the AC bubble it’s been pretty shitty, though. ;)

Hearing some pretty credible rumors about In and Out going in (and out) on 139th just west of the big road. Great news for burger and UHI enthusiasts!

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3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

How's the humidity out there? Have you adjusted to it yet? 

Yup its not bad, though from talking to others who don't have AC even long time locals can't adjust.

Since June we haven't really had a heatwave by definition. The humidity at certain temperatures is less noticable. When the highs are 80 or under you don't really notice that.

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Winter

Snowfall - 16.1" (biggest storm 4.8" March 12th)
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"
Snow days: 10
First freeze: Nov 3rd

Other 2022 Stats

Thunders: 52
Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 4
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1
Hailstorms: 1 (1/2" on 10/12)
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

'22-'23 Winter

Snowfall - __.__
First freeze: Oct 9th
 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Hearing some pretty credible rumors about In and Out going in (and out) on 139th just west of the big road. Great news for burger and UHI enthusiasts!

There were folks in K-Falls rooting for a In-and-Out to move there, I'm hoping its not a hyped up place not much different than Sonic. I thought we did alright with a Wendy's less than a mile from my house I could walk to.

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Winter

Snowfall - 16.1" (biggest storm 4.8" March 12th)
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"
Snow days: 10
First freeze: Nov 3rd

Other 2022 Stats

Thunders: 52
Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 4
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1
Hailstorms: 1 (1/2" on 10/12)
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

'22-'23 Winter

Snowfall - __.__
First freeze: Oct 9th
 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Timmy Supercell said:

There were folks in K-Falls rooting for a In-and-Out to move there, I'm hoping its not a hyped up place not much different than Sonic. I thought we did alright with a Wendy's less than a mile from my house I could walk to.

It’s the definition of a hyped up place.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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20 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Definitely great summers for leaving your air conditioned home office in your central air conditioned house, and driving in a car with AC and cooled seats to an air conditioned In-N-Out burger for dinner. Oh and maybe going to the coast once.

For people who actually go outside of the AC bubble it’s been pretty shitty, though. ;)

Been outside most every day.  Quite lovely up here overall as others have said.   Could have done without a few days at the end of July though.  

Don't need a record hot summer to be happy... but even a really warm summer is not too bad in the Seattle area.   Particularly considering that 12 days of 90 degrees is the all time record.   

I just hope something less than a record cold and wet spring will suffice for you.  It's very unlikely we will see a spring like this year again any time soon.  But a summer like this year is becoming the norm.

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Been outside most every day.  Quite lovely up here overall as others have said.   Could have done without a few days at the end of July though.  

Don't need a record hot summer to be happy... but even a really warm summer is not too bad in the Seattle area.   Particularly considering that 12 days of 90 degrees is the all time record.   

I just hope something less than a record cold and wet spring will suffice for you.  It's very unlikely we will see a spring like this year again any time soon.  But a summer like this year is becoming the norm.

The nice, wet spring has made this summer even more enjoyable. 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Been outside most every day.  Quite lovely up here overall as others have said.   Could have done without a few days at the end of July though.  

Don't need a record hot summer to be happy... but even a really warm summer is not too bad in the Seattle area.   Particularly considering that 12 days of 90 degrees is the all time record.   

I just hope something less than a record cold and wet spring will suffice for you.  It's very unlikely we will see a spring like this year again any time soon.  But a summer like this year is becoming the norm.

If something from last year repeats, maybe another temperate Fall season. I enjoyed the first wet October since 2016 before leaving southern Oregon. Pretty sure 9/1 > 11/30 came out around normal there on Mean temperature.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Winter

Snowfall - 16.1" (biggest storm 4.8" March 12th)
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"
Snow days: 10
First freeze: Nov 3rd

Other 2022 Stats

Thunders: 52
Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 4
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1
Hailstorms: 1 (1/2" on 10/12)
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

'22-'23 Winter

Snowfall - __.__
First freeze: Oct 9th
 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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If you’re a person that throws up a lot I can see why you’d be particularly sensitive to the heat…

I’m kind of a never-puker so it isn’t such a big deal.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Of course that was a 90 day averaged Mean. The first week of September can do what it wants. 

(in reply to the confused react LOL).

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Winter

Snowfall - 16.1" (biggest storm 4.8" March 12th)
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"
Snow days: 10
First freeze: Nov 3rd

Other 2022 Stats

Thunders: 52
Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 4
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1
Hailstorms: 1 (1/2" on 10/12)
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

'22-'23 Winter

Snowfall - __.__
First freeze: Oct 9th
 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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22 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Real talk time though. Did anyone see this coming for the summer? Even during the massive heatwave at the end of last month, some were pointing to it as a good sign for a cooler late summer. That clearly isn’t happening. WTF is going on. Any alphabet soup, Phil? 

  

On 4/9/2022 at 11:57 AM, James Jones said:

Given the drought the West is facing it wouldn't surprise me if we had another Dust Bowl type summer out this way. 

Predicting a hot summer these days is about as difficult as predicting a predominately cloudy December. Best to expect it to be hot until the atmosphere proves otherwise.

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

If you’re a person that throws up a lot I can see why you’d be particularly sensitive to the heat…

I’m kind of a never-puker so it isn’t such a big deal.

You have no idea. I literally threw up in the heat yesterday. 

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3 minutes ago, James Jones said:

  

Predicting a hot summer these days is about as difficult as predicting a predominately cloudy December. Best to expect it to be hot until the atmosphere proves otherwise.

A strong Nino might help in the long run.   Need something to break the endless drought in the SW.   But everyone just wants to cheer for Ninas.    The last 3 Nina summers have not been Nina-like at all... might as well cheer for a Nino.   

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41 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Definitely great summers for leaving your air conditioned home office in your central air conditioned house, and driving in a car with AC and cooled seats to an air conditioned In-N-Out burger for dinner. Oh and maybe going to the coast once.

For people who actually go outside of the AC bubble it’s been pretty shitty, though. ;)

Fortunately, those of you in the PNW lowlands have both the ocean and mountains nearby to flee to for natural AC.

Can't be said for 90%+ of the US population.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

A strong Nino might help in the long run.   Need something to break the endless drought in the SW.   But everyone just wants to cheer for Ninas.    The last 3 Nina summers have not been Nina-like at all... might as well cheer for a Nino.   

image.gif

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6 minutes ago, James Jones said:

  

Predicting a hot summer these days is about as difficult as predicting a predominately cloudy December. Best to expect it to be hot until the atmosphere proves otherwise.

I'm going to predict a hot summer next year. :) 

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Been outside most every day.  Quite lovely up here overall as others have said.   Could have done without a few days at the end of July though.  

Don't need a record hot summer to be happy... but even a really warm summer is not too bad in the Seattle area.   Particularly considering that 12 days of 90 degrees is the all time record.   

I just hope something less than a record cold and wet spring will suffice for you.  It's very unlikely we will see a spring like this year again any time soon.  But a summer like this year is becoming the norm.

I feel bad about even complaining about hot weather considering we only get 10-15 hot days a year here compared to down south that’s nothing. I think summers like 2015, 2017, 2018, 2021 and this year will become more common but we will probably still get some “cooler” ones mixed in. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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It was 99 here at 2pm when I last checked. Afternoon temps are usually a bit more reliable because the sun angles in the summer seem to have my temps running warmer in the summer during the early to mid morning range. There's also a wildfire up near Spokane close to 195. I hope everyone up there is safe.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 2 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 1 inch: Nov 1

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: .20 on 12/4/22

Days with any snow: 11/1/22, 11/28/22, 12/01/22 (trace), 12/02/22 (Trace)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 13F (11/29/2022)

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Noticed a 96 occurred yesterday at KLMT. +2 from the same date in 2016. Though the brunt of that wave was a couple days later (8/18-20).

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Winter

Snowfall - 16.1" (biggest storm 4.8" March 12th)
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"
Snow days: 10
First freeze: Nov 3rd

Other 2022 Stats

Thunders: 52
Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 4
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1
Hailstorms: 1 (1/2" on 10/12)
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

'22-'23 Winter

Snowfall - __.__
First freeze: Oct 9th
 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I feel bad about even complaining about hot weather considering we only get 10-15 hot days a year here compared to down south that’s nothing. I think summers like 2015, 2017, 2018, 2021 and this year will become more common but we will probably still get some “cooler” ones mixed in. 

Of course, it's not over yet but I'd say 2015 was a whole different animal compared to this summer.

At OLM, June 2015 was about 6.5 degrees warmer than June 2022. July was 1.5 degrees warmer in 2015. August might be comparable.

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I wear weenie reacts like a badge, proud and tall. I love every single one.

🌭 react this post and punch me in the face if you agree!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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