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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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Just now, Front Ranger said:

Of course, it's not over yet but I'd say 2015 was a whole different animal compared to this summer.

At OLM, June 2015 was about 6.5 degrees warmer than June 2022. July was 1.5 degrees warmer in 2015. August might be comparable.

Getting a 2015 vibe now... but this summer started later.    Maybe we will get a warm September as a bonus.    That did not happen in 2015.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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WILDFIRE UPDATE (Fire Count Dropping Fast Edition)

Hot, dry, and warm weather will envelop the majority of the west with areas having increased wind gusts.  This will be a real test to our region's resiliency in wildfires this year. 

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/17/22  

Washington - 4 (4 new fires in the state.  All the fires sparked near Clarkston mentioned yesterday have all been put out. There are five large fires in the state. The total grows by one to 34.) Total: 34

Oregon - 3 (3 new fires in the state. There are three large fires in the state. Oregon has seen an impressive drop in fires this past week. The total decreases from 41 to 34.) Total: 34

Idaho - 1 (One new fires in the state.  There are now three large fires in the state, one down from yesterday. The total number fires remains at 26.) Total: 26

California - 27 (27 new fires in the state of California. Some of these new fires sparked near the large, but now mostly controlled blazes burning near the Oregon-CA border. There are now five large fires in the state. This year has been a very tame year for fires in California. Despite being a warmer year for much of the state, "Experts" predicted a horrible fire season.  This so far has not come true. The total drops from 57 to 50.) Total: 50

British Columbia - 20 (The smallest increase in new fires in the past week with only 20 new fires. There are five large fires in the province. The total amount of fires in the province see's a from 122 to 115.) Total: 115

Who Has had The Most Amount of Fires (Ranked by days in which they've had the most fires, only counting days we've kept track here.)

1. British Columbia - 23 days with the most wildfires

2. Oregon - 2 days with the most wildfires.

SMOKE UPDATE

Smoke is mostly aloft over the Pacific Northwest with no smoke over Washington's western half.  Only around Wenatchee is there some smoke from nearby fires and Spokane now.

Lewiston, Idaho is seeing trapped smoke from nearby blazes. The Boise metro is under smoke causing moderate quality.  The reason for this is the shift of California wildfire smoke once again.  

Air quality degraded further in California. All of Northern California is under moderate to hazardous air due to smoke.  Coastal areas are a mixes bag today with California smoke having been offshore now moving back inland. Smoke and haze is effecting the Inland Empire from Stockton to Bakersfield. The Bay area is mostly good air quality except for portions to the north such as Santa Rosa. Air quality is mostly good with a few moderate pockets in Southern California. 

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Of course, it's not over yet but I'd say 2015 was a whole different animal compared to this summer.

At OLM, June 2015 was about 6.5 degrees warmer than June 2022. July was 1.5 degrees warmer in 2015. August might be comparable.

Oh yeah I’m not saying this was a 2015 year…this summer hasn’t been on that level. We’re a bit short of 2021 this year for now but that could change. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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Speaking of 2015, it's funny that I was just going through photos from my road trip in Washington exactly 7 years ago to the day. I passed through this area near Winthrop which burned up the very next day, if I recall correctly. I think a couple of firefighters lost their lives.

Agree that this summer hasn't been as hot overall as 2015, although it looks like August will give it a run for its money before it's through.

150817_untitled_001.jpg

150818_untitled_002.jpg

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21 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Of course, it's not over yet but I'd say 2015 was a whole different animal compared to this summer.

At OLM, June 2015 was about 6.5 degrees warmer than June 2022. July was 1.5 degrees warmer in 2015. August might be comparable.

Last year was a better comparison to 2015, starting in June with colossal departures from normal and heatwaves continuing all July. August was only a +0.2 mean at KLMT, this one looks to lock horns with 2017. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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And another 90F burger!

81F433C6-2720-4EA9-9CA4-1B7877F69AE8.jpeg

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Getting a 2015 vibe now... but this summer started later.    Maybe we will get a warm September as a bonus.    That did not happen in 2015.

Yeah, if September is record warm then you'd be looking at a 3 month period similar to what 2015 saw. 

Of course, 2015 also saw a very warm and dry May, far different than this year. That warm season was just nuts until September.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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33 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

It was 99 here at 2pm when I last checked. Afternoon temps are usually a bit more reliable because the sun angles in the summer seem to have my temps running warmer in the summer during the early to mid morning range. There's also a wildfire up near Spokane close to 195. I hope everyone up there is safe.

starting to smell some smoke.  it's pretty far from me though, hopefully stays that way

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Depending on how they play their HC hand, PDX may not see another 90 veggie burger until the middle of next week at the earliest.

Will have to bump this one later next week.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Hearing some pretty credible rumors about In and Out going in (and out) on 139th just west of the big road. Great news for burger and UHI enthusiasts!

We still don’t have one in the 2nd largest metro area in the state. We have gotta be one of the largest metro areas in the nation with so few restaurant options.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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The period from January to July 2015 was ridiculously warm. I think January, February and March were each top tier record warm months where I was.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Depending on how they play their HC hand, PDX may not see another 90 veggie burger until the middle of next week at the earliest.

Not sure what to make of the 12Z ECMWF for tomorrow.   It shows the mid level clouds shoved off just to the east but there will be lots of high clouds.   And even with the extensive high cloud cover being shown... the ECMWF is saying 100 at PDX tomorrow.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-clouds_fourpanel-0867200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-0867200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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40 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

image.gif

A friend of mine was in that movie! only one slow clap GIF

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Longtimer
8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure what to make of the 12Z ECMWF for tomorrow.   It shows the mid level clouds shoved off just to the east but there will be lots of high clouds.   And even with the extensive high cloud cover being shown... the ECMWF is saying 100 at PDX tomorrow.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-clouds_fourpanel-0867200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-0867200.png

A high of 88 will in turn be pretty……. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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24 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Depending on how they play their HC hand, PDX may not see another 90 veggie burger until the middle of next week at the earliest.

Sooo 100 today AND tomorrow??

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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  • Longtimer
6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

They definitely might not see another 90s day.

100 today and tomorrow and 80s on Friday.

Willing to bet your manhood on that?

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Deweydog said:

I wish…

You’ve gotten a cold bias in your old age.😜

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure what to make of the 12Z ECMWF for tomorrow.   It shows the mid level clouds shoved off just to the east but there will be lots of high clouds.   And even with the extensive high cloud cover being shown... the ECMWF is saying 100 at PDX tomorrow.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-clouds_fourpanel-0867200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-0867200.png

The Euro just assumes PDX is 100 by default this summer.

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  • Longtimer
5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

You’ve gotten a cold bias in your old age.😜

Mark Nelsen does NOT approve.

In all seriousness, I’d go with 95 at PDX tomorrow but it’s a crapshoot.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

The Euro just assumes PDX is 100 by default this summer.

Seems too high for sure.   But the ECMWF tends to paint high clouds too extensively.  The WRF gives a better idea of what the satellite will probably look like tomorrow.  Looks like more of an issue down there than up here.   

olr.33.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

The Euro just assumes PDX is 100 by default this summer.

Generally if there is a potential warm weather benchmark (80, 90, or 100) with even modest odds looming above PDX's head, it is a safe bet that they will hit it.

Last two days are a nice example with the even 90 readings, as was last week with its nice round 100 while Vancouver and Hillsboro were 99.

 

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The 18z GFS is fully on board for a month end cool spell.  A lot of runs of a lot of models are hinting at it now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z GFS is fully on board for a month end cool spell.  A lot of runs of a lot of models are hinting at it now.

Way too amplified... very unlikely to happen like that.     EPS and GEFS don't show anything like that.

I am guessing the models are trying to pick up on something and struggling... but the reality will probably be more like what the EPS control run is showing with a quick break down and then another ridge. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-1660737600-1660737600-1662033600-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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89 at SEA... should pick up #11 today and maybe then tie the all time record tomorrow.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Could still be a rounding error, but SEA is reporting 90 degrees. If that holds tomorrow should tie the all time record of twelve 90+ degree days.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Yea it’s hot here today. Closest station to my house is showing 94F now.  Glad I brought frozen water bottles to work with me today. 

87°F in East Van presently. Not looking forward to the bike ride home from Downtown.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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