August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[DareDuck]

29 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

And I’ll be down there in 20 days nice to hear it’s getting fuckn Smokey there. Hopefully it doesn’t end up being too bad or else I might not go. 

Not looking great for my trip to Kalispell next week. Lots of fires in Idaho and MT that will have a week to grow. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, DareDuck said:

Yea I think I’d it was something new it would be reported at this point. Most of the fires are to the SW and I thought the flow was a little more SE. Guess not. 

We have a new kind of fly flying around and biting people. This could be a result of climate change. 

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

Not looking great for my trip to Kalispell next week. Lots of fires in Idaho and MT that will have a week to grow. 

Yeah I’m really hoping that any smoke is minimal. I’ll probably wait until a couple days before to decide on it. If it’s looking murky that would take a lot of fun out of camping and the scenery. When I went in 2016 and last summer there was little to no smoke and it is so amazing all that you can see with clear sunny skies. Would be a major bummer to go and you can’t see all the mountains and being camping for a week in the smoke would really suck. 

[Front Ranger]

OLM also hit 90 today. 85 yesterday. 

It used to be that OLM would usually top out in heatwaves 2-4 degrees warmer than SEA (sometimes more), but now it tend to be more like 1-2 degrees, if that.

Their record for tomorrow is 94, from 1981.

[Timmy Supercell]

99 at MFR, 95 at LMT. Looks like those guys haven't been breaking dailies for a little bit. Though Klamath was 1 degree from their 1992 record of 96. Medford's was 105 same year.

The late July wave was nuts, 5 days in a row of records. I don't believe I had a stretch like that when I was there.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

99 at MFR, 95 at LMT. Looks like those guys haven't been breaking dailies for a little bit. Though Klamath was 1 degree from their 1992 record of 96. Medford's was 105 same year.

The late July wave was nuts, 5 days in a row of records. I don't believe I had a stretch like that when I was there.

Yeah the late July heatwave was crazy. The Dalles hit 112 and Redmond hit 109 which would have been all time records if June 2021 hadn't happened.

[BLI snowman]

19 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

OLM also hit 90 today. 85 yesterday. 

It used to be that OLM would usually top out in heatwaves 2-4 degrees warmer than SEA (sometimes more), but now it tend to be more like 1-2 degrees, if that.

Their record for tomorrow is 94, from 1981.

SEA topped out at 91 in June. OLM hit 94.

SEA topped out at 95 in July. OLM hit 99.

SEA topped out at 108 in June 2021. OLM hit 110.

SEA topped out at 94 in July 2020. OLM hit 98.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

11 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah the late July heatwave was crazy. The Dalles hit 112 and Redmond hit 109 which would have been all time records if June 2021 hadn't happened.

You could perceive that as the former all-time's falling two years in a row.

[MossMan]

87/55 on the day. Currently 71. Another amazing day and I love how warm it’s staying this evening! Last night we were already into the 50’s at this time. 

[Kayla]

58 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

Not looking great for my trip to Kalispell next week. Lots of fires in Idaho and MT that will have a week to grow. 

Hasn't been smokey down here. Little bit of haze here and there but fire season has been extremely tame this year. Pretty good chance for cooler and wetter weather early next week as well which should keep things knocked down.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

87/55 on the day. Currently 71. Another amazing day and I love how warm it’s staying this evening! Last night we were already into the 50’s at this time. 

71 is pretty chilly... still almost 80 in NB and 81 at SEA.

[TacomaWx]

Nice sunset got there a few minutes after it really peaked. 

[MossMan]

Still warmer outside than inside! 

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS shows 97 at SEA tomorrow... so 90 seems pretty likely.    Then it shows some rain to the west on Friday morning and to the north on Friday night.    Still shows low 80s on Friday but that seems suspiciously high.  

[Front Ranger]

Nice little storm at my dad's place in Myrtle Creek, OR this evening.

[Front Ranger]

28 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

SEA topped out at 91 in June. OLM hit 94.

SEA topped out at 95 in July. OLM hit 99.

SEA topped out at 108 in June 2021. OLM hit 110.

SEA topped out at 94 in July 2020. OLM hit 98.

 

One of those was 2 degrees...in the range I said.

Do you want me to cite all the other heat events where OLM topped out within 2 degrees of SEA most days? There are plenty.

The clearest evidence is simply looking at which station has set more heat records the past 20 years.

Or are you denying UHI is a thing?

[Deweydog]

It tasted like burning!

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

One of those was 2 degrees...in the range I said.

Do you want me to cite all the other heat events where OLM topped out within 2 degrees of SEA most days? There are plenty.

The clearest evidence is simply looking at which station has set more heat records the past 20 years.

Or are you denying UHI is a thing?

SEA and North Bend have basically the same average temps during the summer... and yet NB has been warmer than SEA on at least 90% of the days since late June.    I am starting to wonder if SEA has a sensor issue on the cool side at this point.    But maybe its just the persistent pattern of weak onshore flow this July and August which has been similar to last year in terms of the EPSL consistently running warmer than SEA.

[Front Ranger]

35 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

SEA topped out at 91 in June. OLM hit 94.

SEA topped out at 95 in July. OLM hit 99.

SEA topped out at 108 in June 2021. OLM hit 110.

SEA topped out at 94 in July 2020. OLM hit 98.

SEA's average high temps this summer have been .9F warmer than OLM. Summer 2021 was 1.0F warmer. Summer 2020 OLM was only .3F warmer.

Long term average difference is about 1.8F.

[TT-SEA]

00Z WRF for 2 p.m. tomorrow afternoon... looks like the high clouds will be pretty thin by afternoon.   It does look a little thicker in the morning but it thins out as the day goes on.  

[MossMan]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS shows 97 at SEA tomorrow... so 90 seems pretty likely.    Then it shows some rain to the west on Friday morning and to the north on Friday night.    Still shows low 80s on Friday but that seems suspiciously high.  

Guess I need to run over to the lake tomorrow and get the big cover on the boat. 

[T-Town]

Sunset pics. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

100 in the boro!!!

 

4 hours ago, Deweydog said:

101

Hillsboro was the only airport location in the Metro area today to get into the triple digits. Next highest was Scappoose at 99. Everybody else was 98 or lower. McMinnville looks like it only got up to 94.

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

One of those was 2 degrees...in the range I said.

Do you want me to cite all the other heat events where OLM topped out within 2 degrees of SEA most days? There are plenty.

The clearest evidence is simply looking at which station has set more heat records the past 20 years.

Or are you denying UHI is a thing?

7/23/1991: SEA hit 99, OLM hit 99

9/2/1988: SEA hit 98, OLM hit 98

10/1/1987: SEA hit 89, OLM hit 90

7/16/1979: SEA hit 98, OLM hit 98

8/8/1978: SEA hit 96, OLM hit 96

8/12/1977: SEA hit 96, OLM hit 96

8/6/1972: SEA hit 95, OLM hit 96

8/16/1967: SEA hit 98, OLM hit 96 ()

5/21/1963: SEA hit 93, OLM hit 89 ()

6/17/1961: SEA hit 90, OLM hit 89 ()

8/9/1960: SEA hit 99, OLM hit 100

6/9/1955: SEA hit 96, OLM hit 97

Just curious where you drew your magical UHI line in the sand, when the past is still littered with examples of SEA and OLM tagging close along to each other in heat events. And we literally have already witnessed multiple heat events this summer that fell inside of your "good old days" classification.

I know, I know... third runway bad.

 

[Front Ranger]

47 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

SEA topped out at 91 in June. OLM hit 94.

SEA topped out at 95 in July. OLM hit 99.

SEA topped out at 108 in June 2021. OLM hit 110.

SEA topped out at 94 in July 2020. OLM hit 98.

 

SEA topped out at 91 earlier this month. OLM hit 92. 

SEA topped out at 95 in August 2021. OLM hit 96.

SEA topped out at 108 in June 2021. OLM hit 110. (this is one of your 4 above, in case anyone missed it).

SEA topped out at 92 in July 2021. OLM hit 93.

All within 2 degrees. That was pretty easy.

[Deweydog]

This is some old skool sh*t getting relitigated right here. Colder runs ahead! MBG!!!

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

7/23/1991: SEA hit 99, OLM hit 99

9/2/1988: SEA hit 98, OLM hit 98

10/1/1987: SEA hit 89, OLM hit 90

7/16/1979: SEA hit 98, OLM hit 98

8/8/1978: SEA hit 96, OLM hit 96

8/12/1977: SEA hit 96, OLM hit 96

8/6/1972: SEA hit 95, OLM hit 96

8/16/1967: SEA hit 98, OLM hit 96 ()

5/21/1963: SEA hit 93, OLM hit 89 ()

6/17/1961: SEA hit 90, OLM hit 89 ()

8/9/1960: SEA hit 99, OLM hit 100

6/9/1955: SEA hit 96, OLM hit 97

Just curious where you drew your magical UHI line in the sand, when the past is still littered with examples of SEA and OLM tagging close along to each other in heat events. And we literally have already witnessed multiple heat events this summer that fell inside of your "good old days" classification.

I know, I know... third runway bad.

I've presented multiple lines of evidence. You have one: cherry picking.

It's pretty clear SEA breaks their heat records easier than OLM does now, and has for some time. And it's no mystery why.

[Deweydog]

SEA is a decent downslope location when things align correctly. Oly not so much. 

[Front Ranger]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA and North Bend have basically the same average temps during the summer... and yet NB has been warmer than SEA on at least 90% of the days since late June.    I am starting to wonder if SEA has a sensor issue on the cool side at this point.    But maybe its just the persistent pattern of weak onshore flow this July and August which has been similar to last year in terms of the EPSL consistently running warmer than SEA.

Does North Bend have a long term station you can actually compare records to?

[Front Ranger]

Just now, Deweydog said:

SEA is a decent downslope location when things align correctly. Oly not so much. 

Yes, it's that simple.

That's why SEA breaks their warm records easier than OLM now...more downsloping. Al Gore did say that would happen.

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I've presented multiple lines of evidence. You have one: cherry picking.

It's pretty clear SEA breaks their heat records easier than OLM does now, and has for some time. And it's no mystery why.

Cherry picking works both ways. You're the one who highlighted an arbitrary range that was ultimately pretty easy to debunk.

And going out of your way to place an exuberant emphasis on the responsibility of UHI for SEA's recent high temps just seems like a really tired way of deflecting from the fact that we are simply just seeing historically hot summer weather quite a bit more frequently now. Across the whole region. That includes OLM.

And as evidenced by this very summer, there are still a number of occasions where their respective high temps fall well within the historical normal ranges of each other.

Edited August 18, 2022 by BLI snowman

[BLI snowman]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

This is some old skool sh*t getting relitigated right here. Colder runs ahead! MBG!!!

I think I need to go Flatiron my shirt.

[GobBluth]

New GFS would agree with the less scorching idea next week and a collapsing ridge by next weekend.

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

[TT-SEA]

25 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Does North Bend have a long term station you can actually compare records to?

I use Snoqualmie Falls for long term averages and the new 1991-2020 update has basically the same average highs there and at SEA in the summer months.

6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

A little more believable way to get there compared to the ultra amplified 18Z run.     Also looks like its a brief period of troughing and then ridging returns like the 12Z control run showed.

[Meatyorologist]

At least it was relevant to weather lol

[Deweydog]

22 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think I need to go Flatiron my shirt.

Outsiders pontificating about PNW’erners future amidst a warming climate, then me:

 

[RentonHill]

Almost had it!!

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

At least it was relevant to weather lol

The OLM debate?