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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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37 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The forecast high of 96 did seem a little too high today. But I was thinking 92-93 at the lowest. I was really surprised we only got to 86. I love seeing forecast bust, especially highs or lows 10 degrees off. Usually means something unexpected happened. 

Have to give credit to Cloud (and to the actual clouds).  He called it yesterday when I was skeptical about it having much impact on temps.   

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... if we have a developing Nino next summer then I suspect it might be significantly wetter than this summer even if it's still warmer than normal.

Will be interesting to see how the next couple of El Niño summers play out. Will they be even more torchy and ridgy than we’ve already seen or do they more frequently skew towards 2019 type years. Normally you’d think a 2019 type summer would be associated with La Niña. 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Will be interesting to see how the next couple of El Niño summers play out. Will they be even more torchy and ridgy than we’ve already seen or do they more frequently skew towards 2019 type years. Normally you’d think a 2019 type summer would be associated with La Niña. 

I think 2014 was a wet summer too... and that was a Nina to Nino transition year.   So it can definitely happen.   

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8 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

What happened to the Mountain West Discussion?

Looks like someone messed up the title by accident.

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This is the kind of sh*t that keeps Tim up at night 

 

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ya, kind of makes the fact that you ***** about 10x more during our fleeting cool and wet periods/live in constant fear of them even more pathetic 👍 

 

45 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I guess if one of the most credible voices here says so...

 

40 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Cool and wet weather is DEFINITELY becoming more common in our region. Makes me want to book a weekend in Othello just to soothe my nerves 

 

24 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not worth the time 99.9% of the time. Wish everyone else would figure that out at some point...

 

21 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

See, I can’t be fake like that to try to get people on my side. One of my problems.

The only one making it personal.

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

That "someone" happened to be you! Unless Jesse hacked your account... which he'll probably vomit if he did. 🤣

lol.png

Well crap.   Might have been a pocket edit!

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00z says next chance for SEA to tied the 90s days record is Sunday... but with the GFS's warm bias, maybe not. Other than that, next Thurs-Fri again. This is ways out for this range. 

LR does suggest more chances in early Sept... I don't know, just really hard this time of year. A part of me does want to see the record fall. Might as well if we are this close.

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

00z says next chance for SEA to tied the 90s days record is Sunday... but with the GFS's warm bias, maybe not. Other than that, next Thurs-Fri again. This is ways out for this range. 

LR does suggest more chances in early Sept... I don't know, just really hard this time of year. A part of me does want to see the record fall. Might as well if we are this close.

00Z ECMWF is not even close to 90 on Sunday... probably won't happen that day.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-1126400.png

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Euro is not on board with the Sunday warmth though.. very far apart. So unlikely. 

ECMWF shows marine layer clouds hanging around until almost noon on Sunday in Seattle... GFS mixes it out way too fast of course.

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Trying to figure out how to fix the Mountain West title now... not readily apparent.    

@Meatyorologist Somehow I was able to mess up the Mountain West title without even knowing I did it... but can't figure out how to fix it.   Can you fix it?

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

It does seems like and even the Euro shows it middle to late next week for another heatwave. PDX pushing 100 once again. Yikes. 

The new normal.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

@Meatyorologist Somehow I was able to mess up the Mountain West title without even knowing I did it... but can't figure out how to fix it.   Can you fix it?

@Black Hole you created the Mountain West topic so you can probably fix the title as well.    You created that topic back in 2014 and it just reached 100 pages!    

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7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It does seems like and even the Euro shows it middle to late next week for another heatwave. PDX pushing 100 once again. Yikes. 

Interestingly... Thursday is cooler than Wednesday for PDX.    But that is the best shot for SEA to tie the record.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-1472000.png

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79 at SEA at midnight with a dewpoint of 66.    

But 64 with a SSW13 wind and fog/mist at HQM... marine push is underway.    Also down to 71 at Shelton with a WSW breeze there.   

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24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

79 at SEA at midnight with a dewpoint of 66.    

But 64 with a SSW13 wind and fog/mist at HQM... marine push is underway.    Also down to 71 at Shelton with a WSW breeze there.   

I haven’t used the AC much this summer despite the heat but I think the humidity tonight was a bit much. Just set it up and turned it on. Relief! 

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6 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

2019 was such a weird year for an El Niño. Historic cold and snow in late winter/early spring followed by a very dry spring…followed by a mildly wet summer then a dry fall. 

The Hadley Cell was contracted in 2019. Big aberration from all of the surrounding years.

If we could somehow pull off a narrow Hadley Cell state in conjunction with a deep -ENSO base state it would make July/August very interesting.

But that seems impossible in this era. And La Niña tends to expand the Hadley Cell, all else bring equal, which makes it even more difficult.

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51 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Some water fell from the sky just now. Seems to have stopped though. 

Based on the radar... it looks like its dumping rain down there and in Seattle.    Really unfortunate we could not score a significant rain event from all this monsoonal moisture.    It will all be pushed off to the east by later this afternoon.

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