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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Poleward displacement of the subtropical highs is well-reflected in the NH SSTAs.

573AE274-8A49-45FB-9973-C5D54060E2E8.png

One Google search after you told us where you were staying and now this every day in my FB feed.   😃

seaisland.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

One Google search after you told us where you were staying and now this every day in FB feed.   😃

seaisland.png

Lmao. Maybe you should check it out!

Prices at the lodge have more than doubled since 2019 though. We used to stay there but it’s unaffordable now unless we substantially cut the duration of our stay. Hopefully that changes.

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21 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Euro has been the voice of reason recently. As usual.

12Z GEFS also going strongly in the ECMWF direction and not digging the trough next week into the PNW.     Same with the 12Z GEM.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good to see you back man!!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Another big dog trade wind surge starts next week.

Amazing how persistent this has been.

99CE06D1-F99D-462D-9DE8-3B127AF4D0DC.png

The weekly ENSO update from CPC had the 3.4 region at -1.1C. Pretty incredible. I feel the global models are playing catch up with the current ENSO state. Are you thinking this could be a more significant ENSO event than last year? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Lmao. Maybe you should check it out!

Prices at the lodge have more than doubled since 2019 though. We used to stay there but it’s unaffordable now unless we substantially cut the duration of our stay. Hopefully that changes.

The amount of wealth in sections of that part of the country are pretty obscene.  On the north side of Atlanta, pretty much every time I drove somewhere, I passed a Lamborghini or Rolls Royce.  Also a lot of Land Rovers and high end Mercedes.

And the preferred vacation location for that crowd is Sea Island, so it does not surprise me that prices have gone up so much. 

Part of it is your dollar goes so much further down there.  We ate at a Vietnamese restaurant that was REALLY nice, in a very high end shopping complex.  Prices were the same, maybe even a little cheaper than a hole in the wall restaurant we like here in Bellingham.  My cousin lives in a very nice 3 story 4,500 sq ft house on .5 acres and she said it would probably sell for $650k.  That same house would pull in well north of $1m out here.  If I didn't hate the heat and humidity so much, I would give serious consideration to booking it back there.  I could get one hell of a house/land for what I could sell my house here for.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Stuck on the big bridge heading to dad’s big 50 years in business blowout.

38A26859-3557-4B35-8B4C-ECD5687CF326.jpeg

Will he be getting roasted?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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11 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Strong El Nino's typically lead to strong La Ninas, but does the opposite occur? As in strong El Nino coming in 2023/24?

I had the exact same thought pop into my head. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Only 75 at PDX after a low of 69. 

Currently sunny and 81 here in Salem. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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A super Nino is probably the best hope right now to break the ongoing SW mega drought... which is impacting the PNW as well through an expanded 4CH each summer.     But hey... lets just keep cheering for Ninas!   The last 3 Nina summers have been warm to very warm and dry up here.    Nina is the new Nino.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

A super Nino is probably the best hope right now to break the ongoing SW mega drought... which is impacting the PNW as well through an expanded 4CH each summer.     But hey... lets just keep cheering for Ninas!   The last 3 Nina summers have been warm to very warm and dry up here.    Nina is the new Nino.

It’s probly cyclical

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

It’s cyclical.

I had a great chat with Chris about this yesterday. Kind of reminded me of a convo with Phil, with talk of expanded Hadley Cells, etc... LOL. 

But he does agree with me that a big part of our overall summer warming is the diminishing marine influence for inland areas. He said by the end of the 21st Century it is a good bet Willamette Valley locations see highs of 110+ about once every five years on average, though a an event like last June would still very likely be uncommon to nearly unprecedented. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This chart showed a pretty good illustration of the temps drop from last night into the morning. It was a slow and steady drop until 4am and that was when the marine push made its way in and really dropped the temps. It was still 73F at 3:30am and by 6:30, it was down to 64F. The night before was really bad, hit the morning low at like around 8AM of 68.. hung around 70+ for most of the night. 

Last night felt worse though due to the high humidity. 

chart.png

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A super Nino is probably the best hope right now to break the ongoing SW mega drought... which is impacting the PNW as well through an expanded 4CH each summer.     But hey... lets just keep cheering for Ninas!   The last 3 Nina summers have been warm to very warm and dry up here.    Nina is the new Nino.

Eh I’d wait for the next cycle of ninos before making that distinction. We very well could have a summer like this one in a raging El Niño too. 

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3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I hope it's not like the last one, 2015/16. That one underdelivered for the SW but gave Portland 15" of rain in December. 2016/17 gave them more rain.

Was also a shitt winter.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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A lot of folx out enjoying the water today. 

7435BCCD-2F48-47CD-A38B-B712B0D34A41.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Eh I’d wait for the next cycle of ninos before making that distinction. We very well could have a summer like this one in a raging El Niño too. 

Yeah 2014 and 15 were absolutely scorching summers. 2018 was hot too going into a Nino, SLE had 18 90+ days that July. 

 

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Was also a shitt winter.

It wasn't as bad as 2014-15 at least, and until last December was our only white Christmas since I've lived here. I enjoyed November/December 2015, after that it was pretty horrible though. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A lot of folx out enjoying the water today. 

7435BCCD-2F48-47CD-A38B-B712B0D34A41.jpeg

If the Willamette is as polluted as it is here, I'm apprehensive about swimming in it. Boating on the other hand, that sounds fun.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Need some legit marine push action today…79 with a DP of 67 here. Some lower DPs would be nice. 

The last time I visited Chicago it was in August and there was a lake breeze with approximately similar conditions. Everyone was talking about how cool and dry the air was.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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42 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If the Willamette is as polluted as it is here, I'm apprehensive about swimming in it. Boating on the other hand, that sounds fun.

I really don't think the Willamette is as polluted as people think. Especially down your way. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I really don't think the Willamette is as polluted as people think. Especially down your way. 

I enjoy swimming in the tributaries like Quartzville into the Santiam.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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