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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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Just now, TacomaWx said:

Looking like a good chance we get a midnight low…a much more comfortable 67 with a lower DP as the marine push kicks in. Morning low was 64. 

It was 70 here this morning with high humidity, but it feels much better tonight.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Incredibly frustrating model trends today.  I just don't know what to say.

Right now August 2022 is so far Portland's warmest month on record. It seems like there's a good chance we could see our warmest August by the end of the month. And September looks hot too. Hoping for a cold winter at least.

 

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Just now, Doiinko said:

Right now August 2022 is so far Portland's warmest month on record. It seems like there's a good chance we could see our warmest August by the end of the month. And September looks hot too. Hoping for a cold winter at least.

 

Don’t worry about September yet…still 12 days left in august. 

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah that's true but most forecasts are continuing the warmth through that month. At least the first part maybe.

I don’t worry much about day 7-10 even less about past that. Lot of times the models can lock onto stuff in the long range but it’s never a given. Definitely not looking promising for rain or below average temps for the rest of the month for now. September usually always has some warmth in the first half but hopefully it’s not too anomalous. 

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18 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Right now August 2022 is so far Portland's warmest month on record. It seems like there's a good chance we could see our warmest August by the end of the month. And September looks hot too. Hoping for a cold winter at least.

 

The CPC thinks it might change in September according to their new outlook.  I'm still going for a full blown crash when the change comes, but it will be a while.

As for winter...there are basically no analogs to a hot late summer/ early autumn like this in the midst of a multi year Nina so who knows what this could mean.  In general a multi year Nina with a +QBO is gold for us though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

We are Portland now

08C8EF8E-1174-4F3D-98EB-E0763331DE1F.png

Won't verify.  The GFS loves to show those endless streaks over 80 and they almost never happen.  Today's 79 was not supposed to happen for instance.  In this case it's totally ignoring that little short wave that's going to move through early next week.

The coming pattern is utter sh*t, but it won't be THAT hot.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The CPC thinks it might change in September according to their new outlook.  I'm still going for a full blown crash when the change comes, but it will be a while.

As for winter...there are basically no analogs to a hot late summer/ early autumn like this in the midst of a multi year Nina so who knows what this could mean.  In general a multi year Nina with a +QBO is gold for us though.

True Ninas are usually slow to "crash".    Do you mean it will turn cooler in September and October (obviously) or that its going to go from 90s to 50s in one day never look back?

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Won't verify.  The GFS loves to show those endless streaks over 80 and they almost never happen.  Today's 79 was not supposed to happen for instance.  In this case it's totally ignoring that little short wave that's going to move through early next week.

The coming pattern is utter sh*t, but it won't be THAT hot.

If that verifies I would say we are truly in the last days and some crazy #%^% about to go down in 2023

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Looks like 2017 is probably the closest match we have to this year as far as multi year Nina and hot late summer.  September began with 6 consecutive 80+ highs and then had a high of 53 on the 20th.  Let's hope for similar this year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It appears things are going to wake up in the Atlantic.  At least some things are beginning to change in the big picture.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like 2017 is probably the closest match we have to this year as far as multi year Nina and hot late summer.  September began with 6 consecutive 80+ highs and then had a high of 53 on the 20th.  Let's hope for similar this year.

That was an ok winter here at least, around 5.5" of snow mostly in Feb. Not good for the SW though sadly.

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like 2017 is probably the closest match we have to this year as far as multi year Nina and hot late summer.  September began with 6 consecutive 80+ highs and then had a high of 53 on the 20th.  Let's hope for similar this year.

But it was also in the 80s again later that month... and SEA finished September with 9 out of 10 days warmer than normal.   October 2017 was around normal with a very wet system from the 18th-21st which pushed it above normal in terms of rainfall.   But October ended with a beautiful stretch for the last week with no rain and temps above normal.   Seems like a pretty benign fall transition that year.

Don't we usually have a chilly system and some rain at some point in September?  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Jesse must be thoroughly disgusted.  I haven't seen much of him the last few days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

That was an ok winter here at least, around 5.5" of snow mostly in Feb. Not good for the SW though sadly.

It was decent here.  Pretty decent cold snap in October, cold December with a white Christmas and then snow in Feb.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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36 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Jesse must be thoroughly disgusted.  I haven't seen much of him the last few days.

You missed last night?   😃

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It was decent here.  Pretty decent cold snap in October, cold December with a white Christmas and then snow in Feb.

Yeah I did worse than a lot of the Portland Metro area that winter which was kind of the opposite of the winter before where I did better than a lot of areas.

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00Z ECMWF shows a pretty stubborn marine layer tomorrow in the Seattle area... hanging around past 2 p.m.   Probably another day that is cooler than the models show.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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46 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

We are Portland now

08C8EF8E-1174-4F3D-98EB-E0763331DE1F.png

101 for September 1st?

Anything that forecasts 100's in September just sounds insane. I'm already mentally prepped for Halloween and Christmas by early Sept.

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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like 2017 is probably the closest match we have to this year as far as multi year Nina and hot late summer.  September began with 6 consecutive 80+ highs and then had a high of 53 on the 20th.  Let's hope for similar this year.

That was a -QBO winter though.

Didn’t have a real snowstorm here until late March that year. Lots of wind though..Dulles hit 71mph on March 2nd just from gradient/diurnal mixing. 

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7 hours ago, HuskyMaestro said:

101 for September 1st?

Anything that forecasts 100's in September just sounds insane. I'm already mentally prepped for Halloween and Christmas by early Sept.

I was mentally prepped for the 4th of July in early March... that didn't work out too well.    It snowed multiple times in April and rained all of May and the first half of June.   :(

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was mentally prepped for the 4th of July in early March... that didn't work out too well.    It snowed multiple times in April and rained all of May and the first half of June.   :(

Really? That’s odd, I never heard about it! Perhaps you should post more about rainy weather in your locale as it happens.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Really? That’s odd, I never heard about it! Perhaps you should post more about rainy weather in your locale as it happens.

Wasn't just rainy... record setting rainy here!     Perhaps we could hear more complaints about ridgy patterns in the warm season.    Still not sure who likes what around here.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 hours ago, Eujunga said:

Baffin Island permavortex looking healthy.

The one place in North America that still sees top tier cold throughout the year. They broke all time records (yet again) this past April.

Something like half of the months in a year have an all time 850mb record low set since 2013. It’s crazy.

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10 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

Euro Winter 2022-23 Forecast 

winter-season-forecast-2022-2023-ecmwf-north-america-temperature.png

winter-season-forecast-2022-2023-ecmwf-global-seasonal-precipitation-anomaly.png

ecmwf-winter-2022-2023-snowfall-forecast-united-states-canada.png

Holy crap the EPS seasonal doesn’t bury me in a sea of orange through DJF? 😱 Honestly can’t remember the last time that happened. Maybe 2014/15 but might be even farther back than that.

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